Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Greater Manchester summary:

GM rose today by 106 to 1203 - highest number in a few days.

However as the NW rose by 319 to 3648 from what was exactly a third of the total and the NW % of the GM total today was at 33% so it stayed the same day to day. In fact went down by 0.1%.

Cases today were a mixed bag. Some up, some down.

Only Bolton went up a lot to double its recent numbers. Manchester up a bit but stayed below 300.

Oldham crept back up just over 100. Salford fell but stayed over 100 at the same number as Oldham (103).

Five boroughs were below 100. The usual suspects but with brighter news for Stockport residents who finally cracked that barrier for the first time since Christmas along with Trafford - who were lowest in GM at 71.

And Trafford and Stockport shared the lowest Pop Score rise today - just like the good old days before this new variant ran rampant. And before Christmas.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
who said I am belittling it . I am serious .

it’s utter bollox people can walk over my golf club, families can all meet up and sledge down the fairways but two blokes can’t meet up and carry some golf clubs and play golf.
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Oh I knew you were, mate ! That's why I mentioned how important it was to my Dad. The golf to him is the same as the pub to me, but many dismiss pubgoers off as old drunks, or golf as "just a game".
 
Len Rum said:
Yeah it's slightly concerning.
As I understand it the AZ vaccine was 62% efficacious after two doses.
If you postulate a 'risk' scenario of say a reduction of 20% in that figure due to one dose, a further 20% drop due to less protection against new strain and another 20% due to less protection in older age groups then the efficaciousness drops to about 32% ?i.e. instead of say 1000 people dying , 680 die.
A reduction of 10% in each of these categories would result in an efficaciousness of 45%?
I may be talking bollocks but the Government must have done these risk calculations.
Time to let people know the facts.
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The efficacy figures are for "symptomatic covid confirmed by PCR"

ie the number of people who reported symptoms and tested positive.

The reduction in severe cases was 100% on the AZ trial. However, the number of severe cases on placebo was only ten (zero on active), so the confidence interval on that would be very large. Nobody died, so there's actually no direct evidence at all either way that these vaccines prevent deaths, though we fully expect they will, given the other evidence.

The "one dose" risk over just three months may well reduce by less than you suggest.

Nobody knows the effect of new variants; most experts seem to think it's small with the currently known ones, but that remains to be seen.

There are, unfortunately, no "facts" to define this, just judgements of risks. Different experts will make different judgements. I am not an expert. But I will speculate, against severe disease:

1. The one dose for three months strategy will make no measurable difference. Evidence: phase 3 data from the trials shows an excellent efficacy response before the second dose; studies on naturally occurring immunity from infection show persistence for more than 5 months.

2. Older people will have excellent protection. Evidence: phase 2 data on immune response in older subjects and emerging Israeli data.

3. New variants will have minimal impact. Evidence: what I understand of expert opinion.

I could be horribly wrong on all counts, but I don't think it matters, as there's no other option anyway. What I would argue is that the uncertainty on all of these makes it really important not to open up until case numbers are really low.
 
balotellishaircut said:
I had my covid jab on Monday, I’ve just got rid of the side effects ( flu, headaches,aches and pains) today, I presume loads of others felt like this, but my brother felt fine after his jab, no side effects..
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I was at a funeral yesterday of a neighbour ( Non covid) and a woman there had been ill after having the jab. I thought with this jab, unlike the flu one, you weren't injected with any of the virus so I'm a bit confused why people are having reactions.
 
Len Rum said:
Don't think so mate.
AZ vaccine is only 62% efficacious ( best case).
That means your chances of being hospitalised are 62% better than if you weren't vaccinated.
Of course any reduction in this figure ( due to one dose,new strain etc) of 62% means greater risk.
The Government have not been clear on this.
In effect the UK is in effect an experiment for the over 65s and we will find out how efficacious the vaccine is in the next few weeks for this age group.
The AZ trial did not look at this group and theyobviously were unable to test against the new strain and they did not give a figure for one dose only.
So there is risk.
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Don’t think that’s right at all, thought 62% was the worst case and a longer gap or the half dose improved it. Also think that was for just testing positive. Think the for being seriously ill or needing hospital it was almost 100%. Sure one of the more knowledgable posters on this will confirm one way or another.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Lateral flow tests are included in these figures?
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They are at some point. But with 4 NHS family members doing these at home 3 times per week, I can tell you the paperwork lags behind. You do the test, fill in the forms, give them to your employer and they are sent off. But only when youve got a week's or 2 weeks worth.
 
blueparrot said:
Don’t think that’s right at all, thought 62% was the worst case and a longer gap or the half dose improved it. Also think that was for just testing positive. Think the for being seriously ill or needing hospital it was almost 100%. Sure one of the more knowledgable posters on this will confirm one way or another.
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I saw AZ quoting 71-73% this week IIRC.
 
Len Rum said:
Thanks for this.
I did postulate what is probably a high risk scenario.
However I would wager that most people getting the vaccine probably think they are 100% protected.
They're not.
It's 62% ( best case) protection with AZ and that's after two doses.
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Actually, the "best case" is a lot better than that against your speculation on deaths - being the 100% found against severe disease.

I stand by my previous speculation, but like I said, there are no facts here, only judgements, and I'm not an expert.

I absolutely agree it's important nobody thinks they're invulnerable after a single, or double dose.
 
Gray said:
First three days last week 910,747 vaccinations (1st). First three days this week 613,629 vaccinations (1st). Down by nearly a third, very concerning the government need asking why?
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Cant speak for all areas but my wife is involved in arranging the appointments and I've been a volunteer at several vaccination sites.

For our area it will be slower over the next couple of weeks due to now having to vacinate the extremely clinically vulnerable.

Its a slower cohort to vacinate.
 
paulchapo said:
I was at a funeral yesterday of a neighbour ( Non covid) and a woman there had been ill after having the jab. I thought with this jab, unlike the flu one, you weren't injected with any of the virus so I'm a bit confused why people are having reactions.
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this is not a live vaccine , it cant give you covid ,it is your immune system reacting , some more than others but that is what you want , it is a day of feeling fluey , same with the flu vaccine ,that is not live either
 
paulchapo said:
I was at a funeral yesterday of a neighbour ( Non covid) and a woman there had been ill after having the jab. I thought with this jab, unlike the flu one, you weren't injected with any of the virus so I'm a bit confused why people are having reactions.
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Could just be coincidence, and they were genuinely unwell with something else.
 
paulchapo said:
I was at a funeral yesterday of a neighbour ( Non covid) and a woman there had been ill after having the jab. I thought with this jab, unlike the flu one, you weren't injected with any of the virus so I'm a bit confused why people are having reactions.
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This was like nothing I’d experienced before, it was like having flu without the mucus, but I was freezing cold and my body was aching from my shoulders to my feet, with a splitting headache and unable to walk properly.
I mean I’m 49, I’m still a young man and it knocked me for six.
Put it this way, I don’t think I’ll be having the follow up.
 
Len Rum said:
Don't think so mate.
AZ vaccine is only 62% efficacious ( best case).
That means your chances of being hospitalised are 62% better than if you weren't vaccinated.
Of course any reduction in this figure ( due to one dose,new strain etc) of 62% means greater risk.
The Government have not been clear on this.
In effect the UK is in effect an experiment for the over 65s and we will find out how efficacious the vaccine is in the next few weeks for this age group.
The AZ trial did not look at this group and theyobviously were unable to test against the new strain and they did not give a figure for one dose only.
So there is risk.
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www.bbc.com

Covid: How does the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine work?

People under 30 are being offered an alternative to the AstraZeneca vaccine after a review into rare blood clots.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Hi Len,

So what does this statement mean about 7 paragraphs down.
 
kaz7 said:
this is not a live vaccine , it cant give you covid ,it is your immune system reacting , some more than others but that is what you want , it is a day of feeling fluey , same with the flu vaccine ,that is not live either
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Cheers. A good few years ago when I worked on the ships our company was offering free flu jabs to try and stop the sickness level in winter. I remember quite a few of us moaning we seemed to get the flu after having it back then.
 
balotellishaircut said:
This was like nothing I’d experienced before, it was like having flu without the mucus, but I was freezing cold and my body was aching from my shoulders to my feet, with a splitting headache and unable to walk properly.
I mean I’m 49, I’m still a young man and it knocked me for six.
Put it this way, I don’t think I’ll be having the follow up.
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I think some people do have a bit of a reaction to it like all vaccines. You are quite young to have had it already do you have underlying medical conditions?

I'm having mine tomorrow so fingers crossed!
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
www.bbc.com

Covid: How does the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine work?

People under 30 are being offered an alternative to the AstraZeneca vaccine after a review into rare blood clots.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Hi Len,

So what does this statement mean about 7 paragraphs down.
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It means that no one in the trials developed serious covid symptoms or required hospitalisation in the vaccine group.
So the question is how many people got serious symptoms or required hospitalisation in the placebo ( no vaccine group).
Thanks for your comment will try to establish the facts.
PS So I guess the question is what does efficacy mean?
Is it a reduction in your chances of catching it, or your chances of being hospitalised or ( in worse case) dying?
 
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blueparrot said:
Don’t think that’s right at all, thought 62% was the worst case and a longer gap or the half dose improved it. Also think that was for just testing positive. Think the for being seriously ill or needing hospital it was almost 100%. Sure one of the more knowledgable posters on this will confirm one way or another.
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Also raised by @Churchlawtonblue.
Need to try and establish if anyone became seriously ill or required hospitalisation in the placebo ( non vaccine) group.
 
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