Coronavirus (2021) thread

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lancs blue said:
Progress is definitely varied between different areas - I'm 66 and not vulnerable so I'd expect to be in the block after you but I got the text today to book my first jab for Friday morning. I wasn't asked to book the second jab, just told it would be in about 12 weeks and I'd be contacted nearer the time.
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Its more than that it seems VERY localised, My brother with no issues and only just into the 65 - 70 age bracket got his jab about 8 days after my friend over 20 years older than him and who has been on the official shielding list due to multiple issues since the start of the pandemic.

They live in the same GM borough and only a mile or so apart.

Well as we are doing in this programme it looks more random rather than a carefully planned strategy to reach the most vulnerable first and go in order.

This is why the redistribution of vaccine from the NW to London as of yesterday was worrying me. If I was sure this was being done because it was to equalise the giving out of vaccine to the more vulnerable the above would not already be happening to the obvious extent it is.

Outside the need to offer jabs last minute to younger ones in the right place at the right time to ensure missed appointments do not result in wasting vaccine. Which of course should be happening as it is from reports in here.

I guess this is something never attempted before. There are bound to be a few cock ups. As long as we get it right in the end that's OK.

And we are in a far better place than 90% of the planet so waiting a few weeks when they may be waiting a year is something we should all be grateful for.

The sooner we get this done on the over 50s and vulnerable the sooner we can ship out all those miillions of spare doses we have on order to the rest of the planet in dire need. As we should be making very clear right now is exactly what we will do.
 
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cptaidan88 said:
In principle I agree, but some will have done it prior to knowing about the new variant.

Was never going to happen but our borders should have shut 12 months ago, then we would have been able to live like NZ and Australia. Being an island is an advantage, but we've had the worst death rate in the world.
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It only takes one person to set it back off, look at Jersey for example, zero cases 14 day quarantine for most of the year then a massive spike in December.
 
mosssideblue said:
Your argument is based on supposition then as, last year we didn't have these new strains to contend with
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I suggest you read the original post. The poster suggested that lockdown should continue despite vaccinations IN THE EVENT THAT INFECTIONS, HOSPITALISATIONS DECLINE LIKE LAST SUMMER with the vaccine roll out just as a precaution in case the vaccine doesn’t work.

it is in that context that the only reasonable response is that it’s ridiculous.

in any event, perhaps this thread should be closed now or restricted to discussions on past matters and ban any discussion about the future as it cannot be predicted with 100% accuracy.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
how've we got new cases of Saffer variant when we're in lockdown and meant to be checking arrivals now?
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The SA variant case that seeded these cases probably arrived many weeks ago. Remember the first Kent variant case was traced back to mid September.
The good news is that the SA strain is unlikely to be more infectious than the Kent variant so is unlikely to take over for now. When we approach herd immunity the SA variant might takeover however as the Kent variant is more vulnerable to the vaccine.
 
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PM office on vaccinating care homes:

"You will see official figures that we will publish later today which we expect to confirm that we have offered the vaccine to residents and staff at every eligible care home with older residents across England.

"It is the case that a small number of care homes have had their visits briefly delayed and that was a decision made by local directors of public health due for safety reasons due to local outbreaks.

"But those care homes will be visited and jabbed as soon as NHS staff are able to go into those homes and do so."

I do wonder who is in charge of communication as it is not doing a great job of clarifying facts on this pandemic.

The word 'offered' is clearly a policy as it is used all the time and sometimes we seem to use words to confuse rather than to clarify,

Nowhere there do you learn how many care homes have been vaccinated or any real data - never mind what offered versus actually being vaccinated means.

So it appears to clarify when it simply makes you think it has done that when in truth we are none the wiser.

Most will assume that means the vast majority of care home residents in England have been vaccinated and those offered it and not yet given the jab are unable because of outbreaks there.

But that is not what it says and - unless there are far more care home outbreaks in England than in Scotland - should not make the big difference between numbers actually vaccinated versus offered to be vaccinated in Scotland v England.

Most will not think it through to ask that question. So the word offered is here acting as a weapon of mass deflection.

It hides the key question how many offered it are having the jab? Both residents and staff.

Scotland gives the exact numbers for both. And says how many declined. Why use the word offered as a coverall for everything that matters?
 
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BlueAnorak said:
The SA variantv cases that seeded these cases arrived many weeks ago. Remember the first Kent variant case was traced back to mid September.
The good news is that the SA strain is unlikely to be more infectious than the Kent variant so is unlikely to take over for now. When we approach herd immunity the SA variant might takeover however.
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and resistance?
 
It is Monday and data always low as I say every week due to registration on Sundays being difficult - but - the week to week numbers have been falling every day now for about 10 days as I showed yesterday with a comparative table of week to week numbers for last 7 days.

All but one was down and the increased one by a tiny number.

This is a big fall and the falls and continues the good news trend.

I am all but certain we peaked deaths on 18/19 January.
 
lancs blue said:
Progress is definitely varied between different areas - I'm 66 and not vulnerable so I'd expect to be in the block after you but I got the text today to book my first jab for Friday morning. I wasn't asked to book the second jab, just told it would be in about 12 weeks and I'd be contacted nearer the time.
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Yes, I think different areas have different arrangements.
 
North West at 23 IS an anomaly as the region always under reports at weekend more than the others.

But it is way down even so and much better than I feared based on recent high numbers here.

Guess we will see with the catch up numbers in the three mid week days.
 
Healdplace said:
PM office on vaccinating care homes:

"You will see official figures that we will publish later today which we expect to confirm that we have offered the vaccine to residents and staff at every eligible care home with older residents across England.

"It is the case that a small number of care homes have had their visits briefly delayed and that was a decision made by local directors of public health due for safety reasons due to local outbreaks.

"But those care homes will be visited and jabbed as soon as NHS staff are able to go into those homes and do so."

I do wonder who is in charge of communication as it is not doing a great job of clarifying facts on this pandemic.

The word 'offered' is clearly a policy as it is used all the time and sometimes we seem to use words to confuse rather than to clarify,

Nowhere there do you learn how many care homes have been vaccinated or any real data - never mind what offered versus actually being vaccinated means.

So it appears to clarify when it simply makes you think it has done that when in truth we are none the wiser.

Most will assume that means the vast majority of care home residents in England have been vaccinated and those offered it and not yet given the jab are unable because of outbreaks there.

But that is not what it says and - unless there are far more care home outbreaks in England than in Scotland - should not make the big difference between numbers actually vaccinated versus offered to be vaccinated in Scotland v England.

Most will not think it through to ask that question. So the word offered is here acting as a weapon of mass deflection.

It hides the key question how many offered it are having the jab? Both residents and staff.

Scotland gives the exact numbers for both. And says how many declined. Why use the word offered as a coverall for everything that matters?
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I agree with you it's misleading, have previously thought it was being done to cover a possible 2 week delay between the 'offer' and the actual jab, just a time buying exercise to deflect any coming criticism for possibly missing their self imposed deadlines.
You've made me think again now, it's all a smokescreen.
 
One thing I do notice is the first hint of how - as the smaller the numbers are getting the more the younger deaths are becoming visible. Not in real terms of actual numbers but in terms of the gap.

That is actually a good sign as it suggests that deaths are falling most in those prioritised for the vaccine.

Which is what we would expect to see if the vaccine is working.
 
Further to the figure of 0.04% of people in Israel catching Covid after having both doses of the vaccine the hospitalisation rate of the same group is 0.002%. This equates to two people in a thousand. This is incredible efficiency.

www.theguardian.com

Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections

Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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