Coronavirus (2021) thread

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For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. Screenshot_20210206-135523_Drive.jpg
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.
 
blueparrot said:
No we wouldn’t though we may have locked down quicker and saved lives if we’d listened better to SAGE.
Click to expand...

Sorry but I disagree - several of the calculations from SAGE have been proved too be inaccurate over the past few months.
I think they have had a complete adverse effect on the pandemic if I am honest, you should see some of the comments about them in some of the news report comments. Personally I think they have used over exaggerated calculations and wheeled out several times doomsday predictions that have created scaremongering.
 
Cheshire and Merseyside percentage vaccination data as above is:

Over 80 is 89.1% with 13.7 % having had both jabs.

75 - 79 is at 85.1%

70 - 74 at 40.3%
 
roubaixtuesday said:
For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. View attachment 9754
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.
Click to expand...

Report: https://t.co/XM2mZMUVz3
 
roubaixtuesday said:
For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. View attachment 9754
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.
Click to expand...
we won't be removing all restrictions this year, but we should be operating lower tiers with some level of mixing and socialisation with testing focus then driven on local outbreaks and testing akin to that done with the South African variant.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Sorry but I disagree - several of the calculations from SAGE have been proved too be inaccurate over the past few months.
I think they have had a complete adverse effect on the pandemic if I am honest, you should see some of the comments about them in some of the news report comments. Personally I think they have used over exaggerated calculations and wheeled out several times doomsday predictions that have created scaremongering.
Click to expand...

They were last roundly ridiculed for protecting daily deaths too high.

The number at issue? 200 daily.

Remind me how doom-mongering that turned out.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com
 
roubaixtuesday said:
For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. View attachment 9754
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.
Click to expand...
I've been telling all and sundry for awhile that masks & social distancing will still be with us at the end of this year at least. I've seen nothing that has even come close to changing my mind yet.

I know I'll fight tooth and nail when work start bleating on about coming back to the office again (and yes, they started talking about it last year sometime but then went quite).
 
roubaixtuesday said:
For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. View attachment 9754
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.
Click to expand...
I’m probably misunderstanding this but why on the lower graph does the slower rate vaccine green have a lower death rate than the higher rate purple ?
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
we won't be removing all restrictions this year, but we should be operating lower tiers with some level of mixing and socialisation with testing focus then driven on local outbreaks and testing akin to that done with the South African variant.
Click to expand...

Some people want all restrictions removed by May.

I wanted to illustrate why scientific opinion is against that.
 
England hospital deaths down - but not quite as much as yesterday and higher than yesterday in total.

Nonetheless a decent drop again and the highest week to week Saturday fall too.

571 with 64 from the North West (so about the usual 11% not high)

It was 681 last Saturday with 88 from the NW - so down % wise a little week to week.
 
blueparrot said:
I’m probably misunderstanding this but why on the lower graph does the slower rate vaccine green have a lower death rate than the higher rate purple ?
Click to expand...

Good question! I think it's because the epidemic starts to outrun the vaccine, so you get more deaths earlier. That runs through to a lower peak, I presume because more people are immune through infection which reduces that peak.

I think the total death numbers are similar.

Like I said, these shouldn't be taken as predictions, but rather to inform how we best approach relaxing.

"Cautiously" would be my suggestion!
 
SWP's back said:
No? That’s herd immunity levels isn’t it?
Click to expand...
Yes, but as they were the first targeted and highest priority and very few would refuse I’d expect them to be just about completed and higher than 78% the English and Scottish care home figures are well above that as far as I understand.
 
The age ranges of the 571 England hospital deaths offer no real pointers to change in age range other than for the third day running a death in the 0 to 19 age range which have happily been rare.

0 - 19 (1) 0.1%

20 - 39 (8) 1.4%

40 - 59 (42) 7.4%

60 - 79 (218) 38.2%

80 PLUS (302) 52.9%
 
blueparrot said:
Yes, but as they were the first targeted and highest priority and very few would refuse I’d expect them to be just about completed and higher than 78% the English and Scottish care home figures are well above that as far as I understand.
Click to expand...
About 20% refusing is exactly what I’d expect mate. My aunt owns 5 care/nursing homes (yeah she’s mega loaded, no I won’t be in the will) and they had similar experience. Especially when it’s a PoA resident and someone’s making the decision for them.
 
SWP's back said:
About 20% refusing is exactly what I’d expect mate. My aunt owns 5 care/nursing homes (yeah she’s mega loaded, no I won’t be in the will) and they had similar experience. Especially when it’s a PoA resident and someone’s making the decision for them.
Click to expand...
I’d expect that in younger age groups, surprises me for care home residents though. POA could make a difference I suppose. As I say though thought England and Scotland were both reporting take up of care homes in the high 80s / 90 % regions .
 
It didn’t surprise me reading it but an article I saw earlier talking about a leaked report regarding SAGE recommending social restrictions way into 2022 has put me on a real downer. I’m fucking sick of my existence. Masks don’t bother me but the idea of further lockdowns and long periods without seeing my family and friends is just too depressing to even think about. God knows how business owners are feeling.
 
Mr Coopz said:
It didn’t surprise me reading it but an article I saw earlier talking about a leaked report regarding SAGE recommending social restrictions way into 2022 has put me on a real downer. I’m fucking sick of my existence. Masks don’t bother me but the idea of further lockdowns and long periods without seeing my family and friends is just too depressing to even think about. God knows how business owners are feeling.
Click to expand...
Chin up, Blue, things will improve, the vaccine will certainly help. Stay strong.
 
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