Healdplace
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 12 May 2013
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The other important interview today was Dr Sarah Gilbert on Andrew Marr who noted that the evidence is suggesting that the new variants may mean that vaccines will not drive down case numbers as far as some expect - but crucially will still mitigate them from becoming enough to result in serious illness and/or death in all but a small number of cases. Thus not overwhelming the NHS.
The danger is some will see high case numbers as a sign the vaccines do not work and create panic. When the real importance of the vaccines and why imo the Oxford one is such a great thing given its very cheap cost that the world can afford against some of the really expensive 'better' ones is that this is what we need from this vaccine - not what most people seem to think we do. Stopping you catching it. The end.
Stopping you from catching Covid v testing positive barely matters either way if it stops that illness becoming serious Even amongst those prone to complications.
The best vaccine is the one that saves most lives and reduces the most stress on the NHS (hence why I am surprised the media so under report - as in haven't at all - the ONE THIRD fall in NHS patient numbers in hospital with Covid since 18 January.
They focus on deaths 'going up' day to day - as they do in cycles due to the way they are reported so will be low today versus 3 days from now but NOT because they are rising suddenly again.
Yet those deaths are the consequence mostly of events before the vaccine impact and almost entirely from before hospital numbers have -plummeted.
They are the ghost of Christmas past - literally. Whereas the hospital numbers are revealing the ghost of Easter yet to come. And why it will be very different.
We need to apply the same logic to vaccines. High case numbers with mild illness and low serious illness pressurising the NHS is the true goal here. Not to eradicate the virus. So the one that stops you getting it the most is not necessarily the best.
It isn't really the goal and more needs to be done to get that across. So well done to that Professor today for trying.
The danger is some will see high case numbers as a sign the vaccines do not work and create panic. When the real importance of the vaccines and why imo the Oxford one is such a great thing given its very cheap cost that the world can afford against some of the really expensive 'better' ones is that this is what we need from this vaccine - not what most people seem to think we do. Stopping you catching it. The end.
Stopping you from catching Covid v testing positive barely matters either way if it stops that illness becoming serious Even amongst those prone to complications.
The best vaccine is the one that saves most lives and reduces the most stress on the NHS (hence why I am surprised the media so under report - as in haven't at all - the ONE THIRD fall in NHS patient numbers in hospital with Covid since 18 January.
They focus on deaths 'going up' day to day - as they do in cycles due to the way they are reported so will be low today versus 3 days from now but NOT because they are rising suddenly again.
Yet those deaths are the consequence mostly of events before the vaccine impact and almost entirely from before hospital numbers have -plummeted.
They are the ghost of Christmas past - literally. Whereas the hospital numbers are revealing the ghost of Easter yet to come. And why it will be very different.
We need to apply the same logic to vaccines. High case numbers with mild illness and low serious illness pressurising the NHS is the true goal here. Not to eradicate the virus. So the one that stops you getting it the most is not necessarily the best.
It isn't really the goal and more needs to be done to get that across. So well done to that Professor today for trying.
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