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Coronavirus (2021) thread
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Invisible Man's Bandage
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Wonderful achievement to vaccinate 15 million people in ten weeks. I was wondering, however, does anyone know how quickly the adult population could be vaccinated if supply wasn’t an issue? Is a month unrealistic?
If you are talking first shots then no. It would mean something like 7-9 million administered doses a week but you could easily have mass vaccination centres open 24/7. It won't be a month but it will be far quicker than the government are saying. For once they are under promising and over delivering.
That 15 million in 10 weeks is from a standing start with no mass centres open and limited supply. The current rate is around 3.5 million a week so that time would have been halved at a constant rate. By the end of March supply will have improved and we will also have Moderna to roll out too.
It seems that the vaccination is likely to slow in the 2nd half of February.
Globally the epidemic is falling in most places because so many have had this. The one remaining concern is that it does not evolve beyond us so I think we need to monitor it very carefully. We need to ensure that the epidemic contracts even while we open so that we shut off any potential viral evolution. The only chance Covid-19 has of continuing is by developing new strains that our immune system will struggle with
Globally the epidemic is falling in most places because so many have had this. The one remaining concern is that it does not evolve beyond us so I think we need to monitor it very carefully. We need to ensure that the epidemic contracts even while we open so that we shut off any potential viral evolution. The only chance Covid-19 has of continuing is by developing new strains that our immune system will struggle with
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worsleyweb
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Looks like we are very much over the worst now. With spring around the corner and treatment, testing and vaccination all improving we will get this beaten. Can see a degree of normaility soon and I think 2022 will be normal.
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city saint
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lets hope so.we all need something to look forward to.and then city reduce season ticket prices)))) i might even buy the wife a new ironing board if that happens to keep her happy.Looks like we are very much over the worst now. With spring around the corner and treatment, testing and vaccination all improving we will get this beaten. Can see a degree of normaility soon and I think 2022 will be normal.
Churchlawtonblue
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many offices, building sites, garden centres, DIY centres, builders merchants, factories. If we shut everything for 2 weeks I would think the infection rate would plummet. Then we could really get on top of the virus and hopefully return to some normality quicker?What are all these places that are open and where are they ?
Churchlawtonblue
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hes been doing that anyway, the first lockdown didnt stop him.probably wants to cross town for a shag
Invisible Man's Bandage
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From both the Times & the Telegraph there are two main good news articles & interviews today:
Times: government projections are that the numbers in hospital will have halved in a month as infection rates are falling faster than anticipated.
Telegraph: interview wih Matt Hancock saying that through a combination of vaccinations and new treatments we will be living with Covid as we do with flu by the end of the year. Total eradication is clearly not possible when it is in circulation around the world.
Times: government projections are that the numbers in hospital will have halved in a month as infection rates are falling faster than anticipated.
Telegraph: interview wih Matt Hancock saying that through a combination of vaccinations and new treatments we will be living with Covid as we do with flu by the end of the year. Total eradication is clearly not possible when it is in circulation around the world.
Churchlawtonblue
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Seemed quite stressed and on edge recently, hope she is ok?Feeling good tonight! Moving forward. Let kaz back on mods. She drove me mad at times on this thread like everyone but we are all Blue aren’t we??!
NeilYoungIsBack
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Wonderful achievement to vaccinate 15 million people in ten weeks. I was wondering, however, does anyone know how quickly the adult population could be vaccinated if supply wasn’t an issue? Is a month unrealistic?
The current 7-day moving average is 434K/day so that means 3.038 million/week. This average has been in the range 430-440K/day over the past fortnight so seems to be our current average capacity (weather might have played a role in dampening things down a bit)
There are approximately 17 million in Priority groups 5-9 so at the current rate that would theoretically take 5.5 weeks
There are approx. 21 million in the rest of the adult population so that would theoretically take another 6.8 weeks.
So 12.3 weeks if we could maintain the current rate.
Of course, this assumes that all the remaining 38 million are willing and/or able to be vaccinated, which of course will not be the case.
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