Coronavirus (2021) thread

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denislawsbackheel said:
Rather selective headline when the article says;

“But the ONS warned it was seeing evidence of a reduction in antibodies in older people in the most recent data. It said: “This is likely due to people in these prioritised age groups having received their first vaccine dose but have not yet received their second dose. This does not necessarily mean they have no immunity protection against Covid-19...”
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The headline says half of people in England have antibodies and this is good news. You are worried about the sub title that is a bit of a cause for concern.
 
M18CTID said:
I've liked this post as although it's not good news on the death numbers, all the other data is an improvement on last week. I think when it comes to death numbers, we're going to start getting a few more blips due to the figures being so low compared to where they were
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Agreed, but I am slightly concerned that ventilator numbers have risen a little (admittedly from a low base)over past few days exactly when the same has happened for the first time in weeks in England after steady falls and huge numbers here.

It is true that the lower you go the smaller the fall by sheer statistics is inevitable. As in a 25% fall of 100 is 25 and of ten is 2 or 3. Same fall. Most see it otherwise for obvious reasons but are mislead.

And it is weekend data catching up after 2 successive 0 deaths in Scotland. So agreed not an issue

Hopefully the rise in patients and ventilators in the hospital data yesterday will reverse as the weekend fluctuation eases and we resume a steady fall.

Though it WILL be a smaller fall as - like I say often on the GM data nightly - the lower you go in numbers there is far more upward you can go than downward and that magnifies apparent trends.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
www.independent.co.uk

Half of people in England now have antibodies against Covid, study says

ONS study finds declining antibody levels among older people further from the initial vaccination
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
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This is more good news too.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid jab probably does protect those around you

Out-of-date information may be deterring people from being vaccinated.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

Regular testing of participants in the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine trials, with or without symptoms, found positive tests fell by more than half.
And this suggested "the potential for a substantial reduction in transmission", the team reviewing the trial results said.
The Pfizer-BioNTech trial participants, meanwhile, were tested only if they had symptoms.
But a later study of 40,000 health workers in England suggested one Pfizer-BioNTech dose cut the risk of infection - symptomatic or otherwise - by 70%, and two doses by 85%.
People e living with vaccinated NHS staff in Scotland were considerably less likely to catch the virus than those living with unvaccinated health workers, providing direct evidence the jab can protect others.
And a separate analysis of the test results of hospital workers in Cambridge found a 75% decrease in asymptomatic infections after vaccination.
In Israel, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine appeared to reduce all infections by as much as 90%, although the Ministry of Health could not be certain of the precise number as not everyone came forward for asymptomatic testing.
And, a different Israeli study found, the infections there had much lower "viral loads" - people shed less virus, meaning they would be less contagious as well as at lower risk of becoming ill.
Similar conclusions have been drawn in studies of patients in the US and care-home residents in England.
 
Zoe App just updated.

Cases predicted up slightly from 4446 yesterday to 4501 today.

Total UK symptomatic cases though fall again by 537 to 68, 187.

NW also falls and is still one of only two parts of the UK with the lowest (white zone) case numbers.

And the only one in the four home nations north of the south east.
 
been out and about today around ancoats the new islington ?? crazy amount of people on the canals mixing like nothing has happened ?? no mask bunches of people all within touching distance crazy

we will never learn and you can bet most of the uk is the same ? i will give it a week and death will be rising fast
 
Latest ONS data shows that 536 Covid-19 deaths occurred in the 80 and over age group in England and Wales during the week ending March 12.

This was down from 5,349 deaths in the week ending January 22.

So in effect a drop of 90%.

Deaths in the 75-79 age range fell by 88%

There were also falls of 87% for those aged 70-74 and 83% for both those aged 65-69 and 60-64.

This is really good news.

Deaths fall as we exit Winter but this looks to be driven to these heights by other factors too.
 
ancoats said:
been out and about today around ancoats the new islington ?? crazy amount of people on the canals mixing like nothing has happened ?? no mask bunches of people all within touching distance crazy

we will never learn and you can bet most of the uk is the same ? i will give it a week and death will be rising fast
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human beings are dopamine junkies and selfish, so unsurprising, the students round me have been like this for the past month, just don't give a shit.

On the flip side, we now get to see the true effect of the vaccines and whether they hold up and prevent another escalation. Which, for someone unvaccinated, isn't a bad test case to observe.
 
Healdplace said:
Big drop in England hospital deaths today - on what is usually first catch up day after weekend

Just 40 - with 8 from North West

Last week was 98 with 19 NW.

A wk to wk fall of 60%!
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Good news.

Hopefully the 7 days average can drop below 50 people this week. I know every death is sad but it’s good to see the relative improvement.
 
40 England hospital deaths

By region:

13 Midlands, 9 NE &Yorkshire, 8 North West,4 South East, 3 East , 2 London, 1 South West

Leicester at 8 the highest in any trust,

In the North West it was Pennine at 3 and Manchester at 2.
 
blueparrot said:
This is more good news too.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid jab probably does protect those around you

Out-of-date information may be deterring people from being vaccinated.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

Regular testing of participants in the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine trials, with or without symptoms, found positive tests fell by more than half.
And this suggested "the potential for a substantial reduction in transmission", the team reviewing the trial results said.
The Pfizer-BioNTech trial participants, meanwhile, were tested only if they had symptoms.
But a later study of 40,000 health workers in England suggested one Pfizer-BioNTech dose cut the risk of infection - symptomatic or otherwise - by 70%, and two doses by 85%.
People e living with vaccinated NHS staff in Scotland were considerably less likely to catch the virus than those living with unvaccinated health workers, providing direct evidence the jab can protect others.
And a separate analysis of the test results of hospital workers in Cambridge found a 75% decrease in asymptomatic infections after vaccination.
In Israel, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine appeared to reduce all infections by as much as 90%, although the Ministry of Health could not be certain of the precise number as not everyone came forward for asymptomatic testing.
And, a different Israeli study found, the infections there had much lower "viral loads" - people shed less virus, meaning they would be less contagious as well as at lower risk of becoming ill.
Similar conclusions have been drawn in studies of patients in the US and care-home residents in England.
Click to expand...
Excellent news
 
England hospital deaths on Tuesday wk to wk:

474 / 112 NW / 24%

372 / 71 NW / 19% (22% fall wk to wk)

279 / 59 NW/ 20% (25% fall wk to wk)

164 / 35 NW / 21% (41% fall wk to wk)

101 / 26 NW / 26% (37% fall wk to wk)

98 / 19 NW / 19% (3% fall wk to wk)

40 / 8 NW / 20% (60% fall wk to wk) TODAY


In the past when there has been a small fall the previous week it has been due to back dating via an audit and it always seems to jump up the next week so the total of the % fall over the 2 weeks is on track)

Either way these numbers are very very good. Down from 474 to 40 in six weeks.

Only 37 were in the past month too.
 
Northern Ireland data:

A bit up and down here

5 deaths - was 2 last week. Bit of a rise just as in Scotland

151 cases - was 174 last week

5.7% positivity - was 8.5% last week

5 Care Home Outbreaks - same as yesterday - was 17 last week.

Rolling 7 day cases total 998 - down from 1016 yesterday and 1048 last week

(First sub 1000 rolling total in 2021 and well back into 2020)

131 patients - up 2 on yesterday (second straight rise) - was 159 last week

12 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 11 last week. First rise in this number wk to wk in some time.


The hospital data - as in England - still a slight concern here.

We must hope this trend to stall and now nudge up is an early week blip not actual change. But whilst patients are still falling in Scotland ventilators have stalled there too. So as of yet it could still go either way in coming days.
 
Some people in the EU and other places clearly want folks to die of Covid-19 rather than risk the AZ vaccine - the risk of which is equivalent to getting struck by lightning twice in the sane year (actually its 4 times but you have to be vaccinated twice so the risk is doubled).
Let's not forget that the AZ vaccine lowers the chance of getting other types of clot than the general population as well. So with the lightning metaphor, it reduces the chance of getting hit by lightening as well.
Don't get me started on the Paracetamol and Female Contraception Pill metaphors which are just as damning.
 
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Tim of the Oak said:
Yes mate. Just the reducing protection amongst the older population towards the end of the 12 weeks is a bit of a concern
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That's my concern too. Hopefully the 12 week gamble has paid off and we won't see too many serious cases amongst the vulnerable over the next few weeks which will be the critical period while they're waiting for their second jab and things are opening up.
 
west didsblue said:
That's my concern too. Hopefully the 12 week gamble has paid off and we won't see too many serious cases amongst the vulnerable over the next few weeks which will be the critical period while they're waiting for their second jab and things are opening up.
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Hopefully, people will be prudent at least until a week or two after their second jab. Fingers crossed we will continue all the good progress thst is being made.
 
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