Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Absolutely knew negativity on the vaccines however small would see the flat earthers re engage (they’d give so quiet).

Also struggling to find a purported report on natural immunity post covid being superior to a vaccine?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
You're fucking kidding!

We've spent most of a year under unprecedented restrictions to minimise deaths and you think 250k was an overestimate of what would have happened without them?

Seriously, you're so determined Ferguson must be wrong you've lost all reason.
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Other people eminently more qualified than me disagree with your opinion . simple fact the SAGE scenarios are always worst case by a significant amount. I'm VERY happy for Ferguson to be wrong nobody wants to see deaths on his scale, I just get frustrated that he seems to be the only scientist we consult
Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King's College London, said SAGE had repeatedly made bleak forecasts that never came true, 'perhaps to avoid complacency' among the public.

What i do fear is that inaccurate covid death predictions keep us restricted and in lockdowns for longer . What is not being measured or discussed in any detail is the cost of the pandemic in health and finance terms. I read today that the pandemic has cost the US $19 TRILLION up to January. Don't know what current debt is for the UK but it is a massive amount and we will suffer for years.. Perhaps SAGE can model that?
 
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Healdplace said:
Greater Manchester Summary

Down 2 on day to 180 - down from 346 last week and 386 week before

Slight increase in NW % to 56.4%


Bigger gap today between top and bottom but nobody had a bad day.

Manchester top scored 47 - up 16 but down 20 week to week.

Wigan second on 30 - up 14 on day but down 10 wk to wk.



Six other boroughs in the teens:

Bolton on 18 - down 6 on day and 25 wk to wk

Rochdale on 18 - up 4 on day but down 7 wk to wk

Oldham on 15 up 2 on day but down 18 wk to wk

Salford on 14 down 3 on day and 13 wk to wk

Tameside on 13 down 8 on day and 21 wk to wk

And Stockport also on 13 down 9 on day and 19 wk to wk


And the other two star performers were both in single figures.

Trafford on just 7 - down 6 on the day and 21 wk to wk

And outdoing them all Bury with a new low for many months of just 5 - down 8 on day and wk to wk.



A very good day for the county all round. Every Pop Score will have fallen today.
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It will be interesting to see how the figures for the next couple of days compare with these totals. Roughly the same numbers or small rises will be good news. However the most important figures will be the ones on admissions and discharges from hospitals.
 
Franny's toilet roll said:
Other people eminently more qualified than me disagree with your opinion . simple fact the SAGE scenarios are always worst case by a significant amount. I'm VERY happy for Ferguson to be wrong nobody wants to see deaths on his scale, I just get frustrated that he seems to be the only scientist we consult
Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King's College London, said SAGE had repeatedly made bleak forecasts that never came true, 'perhaps to avoid complacency' among the public.
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130000 have died in the last 13 months and in that time we have been locked down for 10 months.
Work it out Franny you seem to be more qualified than most.
 
Franny's toilet roll said:
His models are always way more pessimistic in their outlook half a million deaths were widely reported at the onset of this pandemic and he was a chief peddler of this report, rarely pointing out that this was if nothing was done, yet something was being done right from the outset. 250k to 150k i'd say was pretty wide of the mark even with a lockdown factor. Ferguson's previous modelling estimates on worst case scenarios for bird flu, swine flu and BSE have also been wide of the mark, actual deaths being much lower. Anyone predicting high death counts for an unknown virus and giving his full backing to social distancing control measures, isolation and 'household bubbles', should not be breaking these protocols . Even if the guy had covid antibodies from catching the virus he was still posing a threat to his lover and it relates directly to how seriously he himself was taking matters. At the very least he should be setting an example. A bit like a drunk getting behind the wheel of a car advising about the dangers of drink driving. If he was guilty of breaking the rules i'd just be criticising the accuracy of his work, but add in the rule breaking and shagging around i'd say his judgement is clouded to say the least, some like yourself may think that his judgement is sound. If he was an expert witness in a court of law he'd be discredited in seconds
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250k was widely reported in the early days of the pandemic, 500k wasn’t.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
250k was widely reported in the early days of the pandemic, 500k wasn’t.
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Research does not get much more policy-relevant than this. When updated data in the Imperial team’s model1 indicated that the United Kingdom’s health service would soon be overwhelmed with severe cases of COVID-19, and might face more than 500,000 deaths if the government took no action, Prime Minister Boris Johnson almost immediately announced stringent new restrictions on people’s movements. The same model suggested that, with no action, the United States might face 2.2 million deaths; it was shared with the White House and new guidance on social distancing quickly followed (see ‘Simulation shock’).
April 2020 Nature.com
 
Healdplace said:
Looking at that Warwick modelling of a predicted July/August wave I am baffled that it shows very little difference - in the range of between 250 and 300 a day at the peak - of those predicted to die between the ones unvaccinated in all age ranges and the ones aged 50 and over who have had two doses by then.

This seems very counter intuitive but I presume has some logic?
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Apparantly it's for vaccination not working as well as expected and letting people get severely ill. But that's clearly bollox unless a new variant occurs BUT they say it's not based on that.
It is total and utter tripe as a modelling exercise.
 
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Franny's toilet roll said:
Research does not get much more policy-relevant than this. When updated data in the Imperial team’s model1 indicated that the United Kingdom’s health service would soon be overwhelmed with severe cases of COVID-19, and might face more than 500,000 deaths if the government took no action, Prime Minister Boris Johnson almost immediately announced stringent new restrictions on people’s movements. The same model suggested that, with no action, the United States might face 2.2 million deaths; it was shared with the White House and new guidance on social distancing quickly followed (see ‘Simulation shock’).
April 2020 Nature.com
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Nature.com lol. Is that a top shelfer??

www.standard.co.uk

250,000 people in UK could die as result of virus outbreak - experts

Coronavirus: the symptoms
www.standard.co.uk www.standard.co.uk
 
HOSPITAL DATA


The England hospital data was updated for the last 5 days in one go today.

Will only post the numbers below as they were on last Friday- first day in the held over data - to today.

Plus wk to wk from today as the rest in between were just up and down by small numbers over the long weekend as usual over normal weekend - fewer ins and outs typical and more so on Bank Holiday.

The news is good. Numbers are down almost everywhere - though not by huge numbers.

NW though had one of the best falls in patients and ventilators over the past few days. And South West became the first England region to have under 100 in hospital over Easter too.



UK total:


Patients down to 3154 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 36, 094 in 78 days) :- lowest since 4 October

Ventilators down to 454 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3623 in 72 days) : lowest since 9 October


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

156 Covid admissions (4 April) following 179, 178, 180, 225, 283, 277, 295 in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients down in 5 days by 340 to 2588 v 3283 last week :- lowest since 4 October.

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 31, 748 in 78 days)

Ventilators: down 64 to 406 v 518 last week :- lowest since 11 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3330 in 72 days)



Regions:



Patient // Ventilators // change in past 5 days to today and v last week



East down 14 to 198 v 260 // down 9 to 33 v 46

London down 67 to 601 v 717 // down 21 to 126 v 153

Midlands down 77 to 529 v 669 // down 23 to 81 v 111

NE & Yorks down 22 to 476 v 564 // down 3 to 72 v 80

North West down 77 to 481 v 632 // down 9 to 59 v 71

South East down 68 to 208 v 321 // down 2 to 25 v 34

South West down 15 to 95 v 120 // down 2 v 10`
 
Blue and still suffering said:
It will be interesting to see how the figures for the next couple of days compare with these totals. Roughly the same numbers or small rises will be good news. However the most important figures will be the ones on admissions and discharges from hospitals.
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As you see from above (we had all the past 5 days data in one go today) the hospital data over the long weekend was good news and the biggest fall was today. So fingers crossed.

I update these numbers in here daily and have for a while now but England have downgraded the pandemic and as a result the weekend numbers now will NOT be posted until Monday so no updates on Saturdays and Sundays. And a three day summary on the Monday.
 
Hopefully, the number of vaccines being given will rise substantially tomorrow (post bank holiday weekend). My Uncle went for his second jab in Nottingham and the centre had run out. He was told to come back next week.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
You're fucking kidding!

We've spent most of a year under unprecedented restrictions to minimise deaths and you think 250k was an overestimate of what would have happened without them?

Seriously, you're so determined Ferguson must be wrong you've lost all reason.
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250k deaths would've looked conservative if the vaccines (or our procurement) failed; 33k deaths in January alone.
 
Franny's toilet roll said:
simple fact the SAGE scenarios are always worst case by a significant amount.
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Simple fact: that's simply wrong.

Just for instance, check out Friston and the UCL group.

And Spector is flat out wrong too; Vallance was mocked for saying we could get to 200 deaths/ day in October and we ended up at 1,200.

The main legitimate criticism if Ferguson is that their group, and SAGE as a whole, was way too optimistic while the morgues were filling in Italy last March, so tens of thousands died unnecessarily as we responded later than the rest of the world.
 
unicorn said:
250k deaths would've looked conservative if the vaccines (or our procurement) failed; 33k deaths in January alone.
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Absolutely, though most of the deaths were saved by lock down rather than vaccines. Their benefit is more now and into the future.
 
Healdplace said:
As you see from above (we had all the past 5 days data in one go today) the hospital data over the long weekend was good news and the biggest fall was today. So fingers crossed.

I update these numbers in here daily and have for a while now but England have downgraded the pandemic and as a result the weekend numbers now will NOT be posted until Monday so no updates on Saturdays and Sundays. And a three day summary on the Monday.
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Once again HP thanks for all your hard work in collating all these numbers on our behalf.
 
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