Coronavirus (2021) thread

[andyhinch]

Trolls in general are the ones that know they are talking tosh and do it for shits and giggles.

The problem is people can believe the utter shite they post.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

42,000 cases, 600 hospital admissions (Eng only mind), 50 deaths today.

Cases still looking like they're growing close to exponentially, doubling time ~2 weeks. Just maybe slowing a bit?

We can hope otherwise, but it's looking more likely than not with current behaviours we'd get to something like 100,000 cases, purely based on the fact there's no real slowdown in the rise yet. That might imply 3000 UK admissions, 200 deaths (admissions and deaths follow cases, so we've got bigger rises baked in there).
The January peak was 60,000 cases, 4,000 admissions, 1300 deaths.

Vaccinations slowing right down, no sign of vaccinating teens on the horizon. As posted earlier, it's now likely that infection is adding more than vaccination to immunity, so vaccination alas becomes increasingly less significant.

Removing all legal restrictions at a stroke next Monday really isn't looking very sensible - *if* it causes a big acceleration, those numbers could double.

There is hope this doesn't happen: Scotland's falling and no-one really seems to know why, perhaps earlier school hols there. Maybe we'll follow? Schools out probably a big help, still some vaccinations kicking in, people will be more cautious because of the numbers, but it's all a bit shit really. I never expected this over the summer.

Time for a week off the thread. Too depressing!

 

[Healdplace]

do you think hospital numbers in the NW may have stalled or plateaued HP?

Hopefully plateaued as numbers more or less have.

How NW does today relative to the big jump up in cases will tell us a lot.

If the rise is mostly because of other regions than the NW it will be a good sign.

Though they will all be up,

GM has consistently been at around 42% of the NW numbers lately which is about where it should be.

NW will always be a major part of the England cases because it is a big population centre.

So there is a limit below where it will not go as a fraction of rising case numbers.

But it is a good sign that two other regions are now ahead of the NW as it shows there is a delayed link between case numbers becoming patients and is what we would expect - especially in NE & Yorkshire which as I have noted a few times is actually above the NW in case numbers and has been for a little while now,

So the bigger the gap between NW cases and cases in the rest of England the more that difference should be apparent.

But NW is not really falling yet. And that has to happen before numbers will go down in hospital. Right now like cases they are just not going up as fast as other regions.

That is a start and NW might well - really ought to be - the first out of this wave. But we are not there yet,

 

[west didsblue]

Trolls need to be challenged otherwise they keep talking tosh.

Especially on threads involving public health where you wouldn’t want even one person taking them seriously.

 

[M18CTID]

42,000 cases, 600 hospital admissions (Eng only mind), 50 deaths today.

Cases still looking like they're growing close to exponentially, doubling time ~2 weeks. Just maybe slowing a bit?

We can hope otherwise, but it's looking more likely than not with current behaviours we'd get to something like 100,000 cases, purely based on the fact there's no real slowdown in the rise yet. That might imply 3000 UK admissions, 200 deaths (admissions and deaths follow cases, so we've got bigger rises baked in there).
The January peak was 60,000 cases, 4,000 admissions, 1300 deaths.

Vaccinations slowing right down, no sign of vaccinating teens on the horizon. As posted earlier, it's now likely that infection is adding more than vaccination to immunity, so vaccination alas becomes increasingly less significant.

Removing all legal restrictions at a stroke next Monday really isn't looking very sensible - *if* it causes a big acceleration, those numbers could double.

There is hope this doesn't happen: Scotland's falling and no-one really seems to know why, perhaps earlier school hols there. Maybe we'll follow? Schools out probably a big help, still some vaccinations kicking in, people will be more cautious because of the numbers, but it's all a bit shit really. I never expected this over the summer.

Time for a week off the thread. Too depressing!

I’m going to guess that we’ll peak at 65k-70k daily cases and 75-80 daily deaths. I’ve nothing concrete to base that on but schools finishing up, and seemingly plateauing figures in the first areas significantly hit by Delta, along with less people for the virus to get at and the vaccine kicking in for more people as time goes on will, IMO, offset much of the effects of opening up next week.

 

[bluesteel]

And another false statement.

I mean, just a modicum of checking before you post this stuff would save you the embarrassment of being wrong time after time after time.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for Emergency Use in Adolescents in Another Important Action in Fight Against Pandemic

The FDA expanded the EUA for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19 to include adolescents down to 12 years of age.

www.fda.gov

That’s the first one and I was actually wrong twice as it started off over 16 not 18. But I don’t care as it’s nothing to do with my point, just you being pedantic.

 

[Nightmare Walking]

Bet Fletcher shit himself upon hearing that reply.

Prick

 

[Marriedtoablue]

I’m going to guess that we’ll peak at 65k-70k daily cases and 75-80 daily deaths. I’ve nothing concrete to base that on but schools finishing up, and seemingly plateauing figures in the first areas significantly hit by Delta, along with less people for the virus to get at and the vaccine kicking in for more people as time goes on will, IMO, offset much of the effects of opening up next

I’m going to guess that we’ll peak at 65k-70k daily cases and 75-80 daily deaths. I’ve nothing concrete to base that on but schools finishing up, and seemingly plateauing figures in the first areas significantly hit by Delta, along with less people for the virus to get at and the vaccine kicking in for more people as time goes on will, IMO, offset much of the effects of opening up next week.

My money is on seeing a steep increase in 2-4 weeks after restrictions are eased.

 

[bluesteel]

You have posted lots of tosh and have been pulled up for it, yet you continue to post more tosh.
You're clearly an antivax troll and I claim my £10 finders fee.

Pulled up by a load of idiots on a footy forum? Nobody has pulled me on anything.

You want to take the vaccine, I’m not telling you not to, I’m happy for you to, I’ll happily be the last person to have it. I’m not interested until I think its safe, not hard to comprehend is it.

 

[Healdplace]

Mixed news for the North West on early look at the data.

Up by the most of any region. Though as the largest it would be.

Up 1272 on the day - easily the most. But to 6203. Which is actually BELOW the 6487 NW had 5 days ago. Its highest yet. Despite the UK numbers being well above that day. Which was 35, 707 - 6595 lower than today,

Greater Manchester today went up to a number well below it had on that day 5 days ago,

It was then 2717. Today it is 2483.

The split of the NW 5 days ago was 41.9% - today GM is at 40.0% - its lowest in months,

So this is actually a better day for GM than it looks and an OK day for the NW in the circumstances,

GM today up 449 of the NW 1272 day to day increase. Just 35.3% Even below the 40%

And week to week up 452 of the week to week rise of 1253. Which is 36%

So this infers GM is doing quite a bit better than the NW is doing.

But rising less as opposed to going down, That is a key thing to remember,

 

[Healdplace]

Within GM only one place fell today - Rochdale - though still over 200.

Everyone else up some quite a bit.

Some over 100 daily Pop score rises again too.

Stockport still not doing great but only up 11 though Trafford again did slightly better Pop Score wise despite going up 33.

Wigan had a scary jump of 108 to 369. Manchester up 45 to 446.

Also Wigan had the biggest Pop Score rise of 112. Just ahead of Oldham up 111 and Tameside up 103.

Five boroughs in the 200s and only 3 in the 100s, The lowest being Bury again - though up 46 on last week at a 'low' of 156.

Bolton on 176. Actually had the 'best' day despite a high number with its Pop score up just' 61 - best in GM. With Trafford second best on 75 ahead of Stockport again up 79. The most in SK for months.

That these 3 are the lowest Pop Score numbers in GM today says where we are at.

Not out of the woods by any means yet.

 

[Del_Bosque]

Zoe showing cases plateauing and Scotlands cases going down after their schools broke up and they got booted out of the euros is giving me reasons to be positive despite the grim numbers.

I reckon by Sept we’ll be in the same situation as France where vac passports are mandatory for any type of social life.

 

[discopop]

Pulled up by a load of idiots on a footy forum? Nobody has pulled me on anything.

You want to take the vaccine, I’m not telling you not to, I’m happy for you to, I’ll happily be the last person to have it. I’m not interested until I think its safe, not hard to comprehend is it.

Enjoy the next year or so window licking at pubs and restaurants from the outside and forget about travel because Vaccine passports will become even more of a thing, fair play if you want to die on your anti vax hill though.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East UP 349 to 3182 V 2155 - big rise

London UP 625 to 4751 V 3314

South East UP 523 to 4650 V 3075 - another big rise here in the south closing in on North West numbers

South West UP 530 to 3346 V 2009



The south is rising a lot collectively and several numbers are above where the NW was 2 or 3 weeks back.








MIDLANDS



East UP 634 to 3126 V 2006

West UP 150 to 3787 V 2732 - big rises in the Midlands too








NORTH



North East UP 34 to 3447 V 2999



Yorkshire UP 751 to 4653 V 3636 - This number would have been above several NW numbers in the past 2 weeks. It is only a matter of time before Yorkshire alone is higher,


NE & YORKSHIRE as Zoe does and the NHS does combines these two for the hospital data and this is clearly now the biggest area with 8100 cases - way over where the North West has reached to date.


AND



NORTH WEST UP 1272 to 6203 V 4950 - Still the highest region (BUT see above ref NE & Yorkshire)

And a stubbornly high rise. Though NOT the most in the region over the past 2 weeks.

Whereas every other region in England today IS a new high often by quite a bit.



SO THE NW TODAY DOES SEEM TO HAVE HAD THE BEST OF A BAD DAY TODAY.






Past weeks NW numbers are 4950 - 5203 - 6487 - 4758 - 4231 - 4769 - 4931 - 6203

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 4856 - 4366 - 5033 - 3997 - 3989 - 3945 - 3960 - 4950




GM numbers in past week 2031- 2224 - 2717 - 2025 - 1770 - 2043 - 2034 - 2483



Total in GM from the NW cases Total - 40.0% - DOWN from 41.2% yesterday and from 41.0% a week ago,

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details


Total cases 2483 - UP 449 on Yesterday - from NW rise of 1272

That is 35% - below the current GM split of the NW - good news.


Wk to wk UP 452 when the NW ROSE by 1253 - again at 36% below the current spli

Basically a day when GM did better than the NW as a region..



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 176 / UP 31 / UP 39

BURY 156 / UP 47 / UP 46

MANCHESTER 446 / UP 45 / UP 48

OLDHAM 264 / UP 33 / UP 31

ROCHDALE 205 / DOWN 15 / UP 5

SALFORD 214 / UP 87 / DOWN 11

STOCKPORT 231 / UP 11 / UP 63

TAMESIDE 233 / UP 87 / UP 92

TRAFFORD 178 / UP 33 / DOWN 10

WIGAN 369 / UP 108 / UP 127



Some ups and downs but Bolton despite the number is the best today though Trafford turnaround continues slowly,

Stockport had another poor day but not quite as bad today yet well up week to week. Damaging Pop Score.

Trafford actually gained again on SK but just 4 Pop Score points back,

Wigan had by far the worst day as you see.

 

[Gabriel]

Being mooted both in France and in Germany that tests should no longer be free now, especially for those adults that have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Protests in both France and Greece today over the proposed restrictions, while the former has also been an upsurge in the demand to be vaccinated.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 872, Bolton 1067, Tameside 1201, Trafford 1263, Stockport 1393 , Rochdale 1462 , Salford 1476, Oldham 1646, Wigan 1995 , Manchester 2921



Bury alone under four figures and climbing. Wigan almost went over 2000 weekly cases. Manchester looking at 3000 closely again,

 

[paulchapo]

The ITV news did a report from a hospital tonight with a consultant. He said the majority of hospital admissions for covid are now non vaccinated people, or ones who've only had one jab and they were mainly younger people. There was a medically vulnerable woman in there with covid who was about to be discharged who was convinced having the jabs has saved her life.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

2636 cases in Scotland today

123 in people aged 65+
498 in people aged 45-64

975 in people aged 25-44
1025 in people aged 0-24

The last category broken further

373 aged 0-14
652 aged 15-24

***************

11 deaths

4 aged 85+
4 aged 75-84

2 aged 45-64
1 aged 25-44

****************
Vaccines

8k first doses
11k second doses

 

[doots]

Being mooted both in France and in Germany that tests should no longer be free now, especially for those adults that have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Protests in both France and Greece today over the proposed restrictions, while the former has also been an upsurge in the demand to be vaccinated.

Where's that pal?
(about Greece,I'm meant to be going there next month)