Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Thank you all for for the concerns. It is much appreciated.

I have had a very severe kidney infection that hit out of nowhere a week ago and has since utterly drained me to the extent I cold barely move for days.

Been on very strong antibiotics and the lab tests were such that my GP has just put me on a second type as follow up and they want to be very sure they have eliminated it fully.

I was unable to even go on line or frankly care for much of last week but for past 48 hours have started to be able to eat and drink a little. Very little tbh. And get out of bed and go outside for some air.

Managed to watch City and that was the turning point of my recovery. Well it helped anyway.

Not out of the woods or up to posting lots yet. But am starting to download the data and catch up on what has happened in the past week,

Highlight - looks very good indeed for both GM and the NW - now actually about the sixth most infected region not the most. And still only small hospital numbers up. GM numbers just a tad up on last week - though some places -such as Stockport are slightly down.

The death numbers in England have edged up only very slightly as have patients and ventilators but nothing dramatic, Could have been a lot worse. Especially given the Scottish data Ayrshire has posted.

Going to take it easy so not over posting in next couple of days as need to see how I react to the second 5 days of antibiotics that I start later.

But will try to pop on here as I can.

Thanks once again for your concerns, But hopefully on the mend now.
Click to expand...

Good to see you back posting, glad you're doing better.
 
Any idea what is driving this increase in Scotland, Ayrshire? Is it still young age groups mostly and the early return to school as you hinted a few days ago?

Scotland have been ahead of the curve good and bad and if England follows this lead numbers will escalate both in cases and - much more importantly - hospital data. Though - whilst up both in Scotland and England - as yet it is still being held very much in reign by one assumes the vaccinations.

Case rises like this would within a week or so in the past have created a very clear upward spiral in hospital numbers that would turn into deaths in a week or two.

If we avoid that then the cases in of themselves are not really going to be a problem.

Which way this tips is the key to where we go this autumn & winter - assuming Delta is going to effectively infect all it can infect sooner or later.
 
Healdplace said:
Thank you all for for the concerns. It is much appreciated.

I have had a very severe kidney infection that hit out of nowhere a week ago and has since utterly drained me to the extent I cold barely move for days.

Been on very strong antibiotics and the lab tests were such that my GP has just put me on a second type as follow up and they want to be very sure they have eliminated it fully.

I was unable to even go on line or frankly care for much of last week but for past 48 hours have started to be able to eat and drink a little. Very little tbh. And get out of bed and go outside for some air.

Managed to watch City and that was the turning point of my recovery. Well it helped anyway.

Not out of the woods or up to posting lots yet. But am starting to download the data and catch up on what has happened in the past week,

Highlight - looks very good indeed for both GM and the NW - now actually about the sixth most infected region not the most. And still only small hospital numbers up. GM numbers just a tad up on last week - though some places -such as Stockport are slightly down.

The death numbers in England have edged up only very slightly as have patients and ventilators but nothing dramatic, Could have been a lot worse. Especially given the Scottish data Ayrshire has posted.

Going to take it easy so not over posting in next couple of days as need to see how I react to the second 5 days of antibiotics that I start later.

But will try to pop on here as I can.

Thanks once again for your concerns, But hopefully on the mend now.
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Really glad you are feeling better and on the mend, best wishes.
 
Northern Ireland data:

9 deaths - was 3 last week - big jump here

1320 cases - was 1306 last week -- pretty flat which is a good surprise

11.0% positivity - was 9.6% last week. - Though this is up.

132 Care Home Outbreaks - was 123 last week - Hopefully showing signs of slowing

11, 944 weekly cases - was 9991 last week - Back in 5 figures for first time in months.

352 patients - was 334 last week - up wk to wk but not dramatically,

28 ventilated - was 34 last week - so actually a good wk to wk fall here surprisingly

The high death number today might be a temporary reason for that so wise to be cautious on interpretation,

Rolling weekly cases by age:

0 - 19 (3758) 31.5%

20 - 39 (3809) 31.9%

40 - 59 (2949) 24.7%

60 - 79 (1168) 9.8%

80 PLUS (255) 2.1%


The basic pattern stays the same - but the obvious drift in % numbers goes on.

Over 60s now almost 12% - around 4 times the % in June.

Under 40s now just over 63% - down from 80% in June.

The middle age group has risen too from around 17 to 25% in the same period.



Clearly the younger ages are STILL driving this wave but they have bled out more than hoped to the older more vulnerable ages and the care home problem in N Ireland has been at the heart of this or a big factor in the number of deaths I suspect.

N I is over half where it got to in these numbers in January and there are hints of a flattening of the rise but 132 covid care home outbreaks in Summer and 18 months into the pandemic is not ideal.
 
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Healdplace said:
Thank you all for for the concerns. It is much appreciated.

I have had a very severe kidney infection that hit out of nowhere a week ago and has since utterly drained me to the extent I cold barely move for days.

Been on very strong antibiotics and the lab tests were such that my GP has just put me on a second type as follow up and they want to be very sure they have eliminated it fully.

I was unable to even go on line or frankly care for much of last week but for past 48 hours have started to be able to eat and drink a little. Very little tbh. And get out of bed and go outside for some air.

Managed to watch City and that was the turning point of my recovery. Well it helped anyway.

Not out of the woods or up to posting lots yet. But am starting to download the data and catch up on what has happened in the past week,

Highlight - looks very good indeed for both GM and the NW - now actually about the sixth most infected region not the most. And still only small hospital numbers up. GM numbers just a tad up on last week - though some places -such as Stockport are slightly down.

The death numbers in England have edged up only very slightly as have patients and ventilators but nothing dramatic, Could have been a lot worse. Especially given the Scottish data Ayrshire has posted.

Going to take it easy so not over posting in next couple of days as need to see how I react to the second 5 days of antibiotics that I start later.

But will try to pop on here as I can.

Thanks once again for your concerns, But hopefully on the mend now.
Click to expand...
So glad to see that you are posting again, I’ve been quite worried. Daft I know to worry about someone who I don’t even know, but that’s me!
Anyway, take things easy for a while ( good heavens, I’m starting to sound like my mother)…..
 
40 all settings deaths - was 26 last Monday.

31, 914 cases

Down 339 on yesterday, up 3476 on last week

England only data:-

24, 158 - down 1794 on yesterday up 987 on last week

England still pretty flat.

Pillar 1 & 2 tests actually UP about 6 K on last Monday so the positivity is almost identical.
 
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Healdplace said:
Any idea what is driving this increase in Scotland, Ayrshire? Is it still young age groups mostly and the early return to school as you hinted a few days ago?

Scotland have been ahead of the curve good and bad and if England follows this lead numbers will escalate both in cases and - much more importantly - hospital data. Though - whilst up both in Scotland and England - as yet it is still being held very much in reign by one assumes the vaccinations.

Case rises like this would within a week or so in the past have created a very clear upward spiral in hospital numbers that would turn into deaths in a week or two.

If we avoid that then the cases in of themselves are not really going to be a problem.

Which way this tips is the key to where we go this autumn & winter - assuming Delta is going to effectively infect all it can infect sooner or later.
Click to expand...

I don't know I'm afraid, but the schools definitely didn't drive the massive initial increases as it was too early for that - with schools not going back in some regions until Thursday last week but the increases in those regions (Ayrshire for example) were already well underway prior to any kids being back.

I'd be tempted to guess its just the knock on effect of reopening in general starting to kick in. Nightclubs, soft plays, football crowds, increased socialising in general. Last two days have shown fairly big increases in hospital patient numbers sadly.

How long the upward trend lasts or how high it goes is anyone's guess.
 
Not going to be up to all the weekly data today as I have to catch up on a lot of downloaded data needed to calculate those tables. See how I am tomorrow.

But quick look at GM shows that today was another good day for everyone BUT Stockport.

SK has had a good week whilst I was away but today's cases - 180 - are the highest by far in some time (up from just 108 yesterday). And not that far behind Manchester - who are way down week to week on just 223.

Tameside on 137 was the nearest to Stockport, But is up only 3 on last week. And Wigan only up 2 on 128.

But 6 other boroughs are DOWN week to week - Manchester down by 47.

Stockport was 151 last Monday. And at a Pop Score of 61 is miles ahead in GM today. Which is unusual in of itself to be way ahead of the rest of the boroughs. And its highest in a month.

Hopefully a one off glitch in Stockport.

Four boroughs are under 100

Oldham on 92 - down 24 wk to wk

Bolton on 88 - same as last week

Bury on 64 - down 20 on last week and completing seven days of under 100 numbers.

And Rochdale on 76 - down 8 week to week

Other not mentioned:- Salford on 125 - down 3 wk to wk and Trafford on 118 - down 16 wk to wk,

Trafford took 11 points back off Stockport in one go in the overall Pop Score race today even though they were second highest i GM rising by 50.
 
FDA over here just officially approved the Pfizer vaccine.

www.cnn.com

FDA grants full approval to Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine

The US Food and Drug Administration has granted full approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine. Follow here for the latest.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

I should note that in my fucked up country full of idiots, the "Coronavirus" thread would be in the "Politics" sub-thread.
 
NW day to day is up 57 from 2982 to 3039.

GM is up by 148 - so is actually up by more than the entire NW day to day.



NW week to week - though - is down 189 and GM down 84 of them. About right.

Even with Stockport going the wrong way.


So the pattern of the last week continues. Whatever else the numbers are showing both NW and GM are pretty flat and even down in past 7 days. Not up,

Unless Stockport is not a blip and just the shape of Scotland like rises to come.

But just as likely SK will have a good day tomorrow when others go up. The nature of daily cases totted up across several days of lab tests that can be held up and boost one day over another.

Hence why we use the week to week Pop Scores as they even out across 7 days.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Admissions:-

SAT WEEK V last Fri & last Saturday weekend just gone (2 days behind as admissions always are)

689 - V 733 & 757

London 129 V 120 & 124

MIDLANDS 124 V 145 & 127

NE & YORKSHIRE 151 V 159 & 155

AND

NORTH WEST 102 V 104 & 112


Admissions up a little week to week but not drastically

North West up a tad but still lowest admissions of the four large NHS regions
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Patients:

FRI - SAT - SUN -TODAY

5576 - 5575 - 5749 - 6000 - up 424 across the weekend


Same days last week

5076 - 4973 - 5115 - 5429 - up 353 across the weekend


So week to week today there are 571 more in hospital than last Monday


BY REGIONS:


LONDON 1112 - 1126 - 1138 - 1199 - up 87 across the weekend (last wknd 1025 - 1008 - 1036 - 1086 up 61)

MIDLANDS 1129 - 1119 - 1185 - 1209 - up 80 across the weekend (last wknd 998 - 980 - 1002 - 1063 up 65)

NE & YORKSHIRE 1047 - 1064 - 1100 - 1209 - up 62 across the weekend (last wknd 1027 - 954 - 971 - 1088 up 61)

AND

NORTH WEST 895 - 862 - 880 - 937 - up 42 across the weekend (last wknd 815 - 795 - 813 - 835 up 20)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Ventilators

FRI - SAT - SUN - TODAY

857 - 858 - 863 - 845 - down 12 across the weekend


Same days last week

793 - 797 - 800 - 816 - up 23 across the weekend


So week to week today there are 29 more on ventilators than last Monday


BY REGIONS:


LONDON 213 - 216 - 220 - 216 - up 3 across the weekend (last wknd 200 - 198 - 208 - 211 up 11)

MIDLANDS 175 - 176 - 181 - 175 - level across the weekend (last wknd 171 - 170 - 163 - 161 down 10)

NE & YORKSHIRE 142 - 144 - 146 - 146 - up 4 across the weekend (last wknd 136 - 134 - 137 - 137 up 1)

AND

NORTH WEST 102 - 108 - 107 - 99 - down 3 across the weekend (last wknd 118 - 120 - 109 - 114 down 4)


FIRST TIME NW HAS HAD UNDER 100 ON VENTILATORS SINCE 4 JULY
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
FDA over here just officially approved the Pfizer vaccine.

www.cnn.com

FDA grants full approval to Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine

The US Food and Drug Administration has granted full approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine. Follow here for the latest.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

I should note that in my fucked up country full of idiots, the "Coronavirus" thread would be in the "Politics" sub-thread.
Click to expand...

I wonder if the lad on here a few weeks back who was using this as his reason for not having a vaccine will change his mind…. Anyone wanna start a betting pool?
 
UK PATIENTS AS OF TODAY:

ENGLAND 6000 SCOTLAND 356 NORTHERN IRELAND 352 WALES 192

UK TOTAL 6900


VENTILATED UK AS OF TODAY


ENGLAND 845 SCOTLAND 41 NORTHERN IRELAND 28 WALES 31

UK TOTAL 945
 
Healdplace said:
UK PATIENTS AS OF TODAY:

ENGLAND 6000 SCOTLAND 356 NORTHERN IRELAND 352 WALES 192

UK TOTAL 6900


VENTILATED UK AS OF TODAY


ENGLAND 845 SCOTLAND 41 NORTHERN IRELAND 28 WALES 31

UK TOTAL 945
Click to expand...
Worrying going into autumn and winter.
But hopefully the boosters and new treatments can keep the deaths low
 
Healdplace said:
Thank you all for for the concerns. It is much appreciated.

I have had a very severe kidney infection that hit out of nowhere a week ago and has since utterly drained me to the extent I cold barely move for days.

Been on very strong antibiotics and the lab tests were such that my GP has just put me on a second type as follow up and they want to be very sure they have eliminated it fully.

I was unable to even go on line or frankly care for much of last week but for past 48 hours have started to be able to eat and drink a little. Very little tbh. And get out of bed and go outside for some air.

Managed to watch City and that was the turning point of my recovery. Well it helped anyway.

Not out of the woods or up to posting lots yet. But am starting to download the data and catch up on what has happened in the past week,

Highlight - looks very good indeed for both GM and the NW - now actually about the sixth most infected region not the most. And still only small hospital numbers up. GM numbers just a tad up on last week - though some places -such as Stockport are slightly down.

The death numbers in England have edged up only very slightly as have patients and ventilators but nothing dramatic, Could have been a lot worse. Especially given the Scottish data Ayrshire has posted.

Going to take it easy so not over posting in next couple of days as need to see how I react to the second 5 days of antibiotics that I start later.

But will try to pop on here as I can.

Thanks once again for your concerns, But hopefully on the mend now.
Click to expand...

Get well soon
 
splinter said:
Worrying going into autumn and winter.
But hopefully the boosters and new treatments can keep the deaths low
Click to expand...
Hospital numbers are actually OK. As I said weeks ago they were always going to increase once it was not just the NW creating the cases as it was much of the Summer.

There are 6 other England regions and three of them large - NE & Yorkshire. London and Midlands. They ought to at least be double the NW increase but in reality they have edged up but not by as much as the NW did solo. And the NW has flattened off.

In the circumstances I would have expected 50K cases and 10 K in hospital.

But so far the escalation of the other regions went up and flattened off and is not obviously accelerating right now.

This could yet turn. But cases are not what they were and are not translating into hospital cases long term as stays are shorter by days due to the different age profile versus the past.

So this is not where we would be if this was 6 months ago. The vaccine has turned a serious wave into an at present manageable one.

We have to watch Scotland as their cases have risen and hospital numbers are up but so far not really any differently from England due to the same age profile.

Similar in Northern Ireland where it could be a lot worse.

Schoolchildren catching it from September are only a numbers thing UNLESS they infect more vulnerable relatives and send them into hospital. Most of them who catch it will be a number on the screen but not a problem for the NHS.

The argument I think always was letting as many catch it as do in the Summer and mitigate the numbers in the autumn/winter when the NHS will face other non Covid issues so need that breathing space.

We are on track for that tactic so far. It could yet tip the wrong way. But it might be this is going to edge up not shoot up and stay at a manageable level. Which I think sub 10K in UK hospitals would be seen as being.

Not lost hope yet. But this is a bit on the edge that is true. The return of England schools in 2 weeks will be where we start to find out.
 
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