Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:
No. Huge rises started before they went back or in the exact days they started going back, so too early. Although if spread is as rife in the community I imagine schools will soon have an impact too.

Half of new cases in under 25s. Again things like football, nightclubs and increased socialising in general seems most likely. Not ideal timing prior to schools returning.
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Ok cheers, lets just hope hospital numbers stay relatively low.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Ok cheers, lets just hope hospital numbers stay relatively low.
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Aye, that'll be the most important thing as always, although that's three days in a row of rises in patients now, off the top of my head I think up 45 or so from where we were 3 days ago, and with case numbers still going up then these numbers are only going to increase in the coming days and weeks but how far is anyone's guess.

Another theory to partly (even if in a very limited way) to explain such a sharp rise in cases is the end of isolating as a close contact but instead taking Lateral Flow tests and if positive then a PCR one. Maybe picking up some positive asymptomatic cases who previously wouldn't have found out as they'd have simply isolated. As I say, that'll be nowhere near the full story though and just a very small part in the explanation imo.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
4323 cases in Scotland (new high record sadly)
14.5% positive
Hospitals up 8 overnight
Ventilators up 2

Last week was 1815 cases and 10.6% positive
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This is starting to look a little concerning given Scotland were the first to go the right way and have only edged up until this past week or so.

It is not unlikely England will follow and if enough of all these cases translate into hospitalisations (that is yet to happen really in Scotland but would be behind by a week or so) then it is hard to see new restrictions in September being avoided.

What is Nicola's stance on a booster jab btw? I think these will be more likely now than ever as government will be panicking at these numbers. Even though they were probably inevitable if the age of those testing positive remains as it was.

The one bit of good news if true as it will limit serious illness and death. But they will undoubtedly be on the up with the worst of Winter far ahead still. Hard to be too optimistic of a Covid + Flu mid Winter.

Maybe getting the worst over early will help mitigate.
 
WALES DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

1393 cases - was 761 last week

13% positivity - was 9.8% last week


Latest hospital data is days old but shows a rise of 59 in the week from 133 to 192 patients

And in ventilators from 26 to 31 in the week.


Wales following the Scotland trend it seems.
 
Zoe App data is showing the same upward spiral unfortunately.

Whilst I was off last week it flattened and started rising again and today has risen the most yet,

Predicted cases UP to 51, 841 from 49, 767 yesterday (it was 42, 990 last Tuesday)

And ongoing symptomatic cases - which again had been falling for weeks - are now increasingly up.

Cases on 654, 775 - up from 648, 652 yesterday.

Last Tuesday they were still falling on 626, 675.
 
it's really hard to believe that herd immunity can be reached now - it seems infections are just forever increasing while antibodies and vaccination rates are tending towards 97% (over 18s).

this would imply re-infection is going to be quite large - are there any indications as to what this might be? i know initially it was quite rare but surely now it's going to be very very common?

(and if so, further raises the point - what's the point in restrictions or internal covid passes if it's unstoppable?)
 
Healdplace said:
This is starting to look a little concerning given Scotland were the first to go the right way and have only edged up until this past week or so.

It is not unlikely England will follow and if enough of all these cases translate into hospitalisations (that is yet to happen really in Scotland but would be behind by a week or so) then it is hard to see new restrictions in September being avoided.

What is Nicola's stance on a booster jab btw? I think these will be more likely now than ever as government will be panicking at these numbers. Even though they were probably inevitable if the age of those testing positive remains as it was.

The one bit of good news if true as it will limit serious illness and death. But they will undoubtedly be on the up with the worst of Winter far ahead still. Hard to be too optimistic of a Covid + Flu mid Winter.

Maybe getting the worst over early will help mitigate.
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I don't know the situation regarding boosters. Seem to be dawdling on it as they are with vaccinating teenagers for some reason perhaps only known to those in charge.

I'm not sure I would fully understand or agree with imposing restrictions again. They have been a necessary evil up until this point to allow people to get vaccinated. Most people who plan on getting vaccinated have now done so or are freely able to do so. Imposing restrictions would just demonstrate that this is likely never ending. Reopen when cases are low and they will increase again, repeat ad nauseum. It'll also be counter productive in the fact it will make many question what the actual point is in bothering to get vaccinated in this pandemic or any future ones because the promise that Vaccines were the route out of the mess holds less water than before. I know and you know that they save peooles lives, but that isn't the reason behind a lot of people getting jabbed but it was the return to normality.

I don't know what the answer is, but I'd be very concerned if the government thinks its more restrictions at this stage.
 
SWP's back said:
And what year will that be? The Aussie’s I know who live there are about ready to riot at present.
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Aus vax rate currently 67 doses per 100 (doses, not fully vaxxed)

Spain is the highest dosed country in Europe and passed that milestone June 9th for comparison.

Aus vax rate currently 1 per 100 per day.

So I guess about 2 months away, give or take.

All according to ourworldindata.
 
More bad news on Zoe is the regional data. Showing the North West has shot up the league in the past few days and is now rising fast as the THIRD worst in the UK. With the biggest rise yet today again.


NORTHERN IRELAND is top now - on its own in the darkest red watch zone.

UP from 499 / 1576 yesterday to 571 / 1693 today - a big jump up - as is happening UK wide now on Zoe.


YORKSHIRE & HUMBER is second leading the next mid red group covering the other major England regions

UP from 786 / 1082 to 805 / 1104 today


And North West in third

UP from 693 / 940 to 751 / 1006 today - biggest daily jump in ages in the NW.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I don't know the situation regarding boosters. Seem to be dawdling on it as they are with vaccinating teenagers for some reason perhaps only known to those in charge.

I'm not sure I would fully understand or agree with imposing restrictions again. They have been a necessary evil up until this point to allow people to get vaccinated. Most people who plan on getting vaccinated have now done so or are freely able to do so. Imposing restrictions would just demonstrate that this is likely never ending. Reopen when cases are low and they will increase again, repeat ad nauseum. It'll also be counter productive in the fact it will make many question what the actual point is in bothering to get vaccinated in this pandemic or any future ones because the promise that Vaccines were the route out of the mess holds less water than before. I know and you know that they save peooles lives, but that isn't the reason behind a lot of people getting jabbed but it was the return to normality.

I don't know what the answer is, but I'd be very concerned if the government thinks its more restrictions at this stage.
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I agree it is not the way out but it is usually being seen to do something than letting it rip that politicians choose.

I have no idea where we go really as a lot of us assumed there was some kind of post vaccination end game and Delta has kind of made us look as if this is now the rest of your life dodging Covid.

It is a bit depressing.

I know the vaccines have truly transformed the consequence of catching Covid.

But I suspect these events will be leaving that seed of doubt that Covid is like the beast in the woods and it will get you one day unless you never go in the woods - just a matter of when and if your body is fit enough to fight it off.

Feels rather like winding the clock back.

And society will take time adjusting to this new normal.
 
For the first time I am starting to wonder if this really was an engineered natural virus as it seems to be well adapted to confounding our plans.

I know it could just be rotten luck and a well honed predator by chance and vast numbers acting as a petri dish in a way the world has yet had to face.

I am very sure it was not deliberately leaked as my best friend still thinks it was however many times I have told her otherwise.

But a break out from a lab of something designed to defy our ingenuity.

Hopefully not as that would make it all but undefeatable. As the ones behind it will have tried if so.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I don't know what the answer is, but I'd be very concerned if the government thinks its more restrictions at this stage.
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I guess there are two options, really.

1. Let it rip and accept the consequences, regardless of what they are.

2. Decide how bad we are prepared to let it get and impose restrictions to limit consequences to whatever that is.

It's looking pretty clear the potential is there to get quite bad quite quickly. Scotland and now Wales seem to be doubling almost weekly. Hopefully that will slow, but who knows.

If we accept that we don't care about cases per se, long covid notwithstanding. we're two doublings from the daily hospitalisation peak in January, and 3-4 from the corresponding deaths peak. It could happen quite quickly, but equally it might burn out.

Do we want to go there? If yes, how much higher again?

At the moment, policy seems to be to hang in and hope it doesn't get out of control without any clear idea of what out of control is or what we are prepared to do to stop it.
 
Very good documentary on channel 4 the other night bout whether it started in a lab or not. Some very disturbing info. Turns out the fuckers get hold of viruses that can't affect humans and genetically engineer them so they can. Why they do this, fuck knows but it's scary stuff.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I guess there are two options, really.

1. Let it rip and accept the consequences, regardless of what they are.

2. Decide how bad we are prepared to let it get and impose restrictions to limit consequences to whatever that is.

It's looking pretty clear the potential is there to get quite bad quite quickly. Scotland and now Wales seem to be doubling almost weekly. Hopefully that will slow, but who knows.

If we accept that we don't care about cases per se, long covid notwithstanding. we're two doublings from the daily hospitalisation peak in January, and 3-4 from the corresponding deaths peak. It could happen quite quickly, but equally it might burn out.

Do we want to go there? If yes, how much higher again?

At the moment, policy seems to be to hang in and hope it doesn't get out of control without any clear idea of what out of control is or what we are prepared to do to stop it.
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That is the problem well summed up.

We are reactive to this virus not proactive as we pinned pretty much everything on the vaccines and - whilst they are saving millions globally - we are still looking very vulnerable to any small genetic tweak which given how many cases are out there is inevitable.

I thought we would be in a far better place looking forward than we are now this time last year.

But in a global sense we are worse off and deeper into the pandemic and we have seen a few thousand people stranded at an airport - tragic as that truly is - as the thing we focus on when millions around the world unvaccinated and dying and brewing up the next version to head our way really is going almost at snail's pace.

Where is the big global conference to urgently sort that out?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I guess there are two options, really.

1. Let it rip and accept the consequences, regardless of what they are.

2. Decide how bad we are prepared to let it get and impose restrictions to limit consequences to whatever that is.

It's looking pretty clear the potential is there to get quite bad quite quickly. Scotland and now Wales seem to be doubling almost weekly. Hopefully that will slow, but who knows.

If we accept that we don't care about cases per se, long covid notwithstanding. we're two doublings from the daily hospitalisation peak in January, and 3-4 from the corresponding deaths peak. It could happen quite quickly, but equally it might burn out.

Do we want to go there? If yes, how much higher again?

At the moment, policy seems to be to hang in and hope it doesn't get out of control without any clear idea of what out of control is or what we are prepared to do to stop it.
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I read somewhere that most pandemics take 2 years to get sorted out, with this one I'm not sure that will be right.
Personally I think were heading for an Oct / Nov lockdown of some sort or re implementation of some restrictions.
The way the cases are and seeing people's behaviours etc and the schools going back I can only see it going 1 way.
The daily figures we keep reeling off are mind boggling.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Aus vax rate currently 67 doses per 100 (doses, not fully vaxxed)

Spain is the highest dosed country in Europe and passed that milestone June 9th for comparison.

Aus vax rate currently 1 per 100 per day.

So I guess about 2 months away, give or take.

All according to ourworldindata.
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I’m not sure what the politicians have planned but there’s rumours Melbourne will be locked down into 2022. Sydney rumours are mid November (2021). I think fully vaccinated people will (very) slowly get some freedoms back. Who the fuck knows though
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
I read somewhere that most pandemics take 2 years to get sorted out, with this one I'm not sure that will be right.
Personally I think were heading for an Oct / Nov lockdown of some sort or re implementation of some restrictions.
The way the cases are and seeing people's behaviours etc and the schools going back I can only see it going 1 way.
The daily figures we keep reeling off are mind boggling.
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I can’t see there being any restrictions. The vaccine has turned the virus into one that is comparable with other respiratory illnesses. If anything they may ask the vulnerable to shield until they get boosters or whatever they go with, but the rest of us will just get on with things. The young have sacrificed too much already, unless there is a mutation which is unforeseen then there should be no restrictions even considered again.
 
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