Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Len Rum]

What's all this about an October 'circuit breaker'?
Surely Covid is over ( if you want it)?

 

[Healdplace]

New Zealand is approximately the same size as the U.K, with demographic and geographical advantages. Of course they have big challenges ahead so does Israel and the U.K, who were at the forefront of the vaccine roll out.

New Zealand needs to ramp up vaccine roll out but it’s always more difficult to create urgency when there are very few cases. At least medicine and science has advanced over the last 20 months.

Btw, If I was living in New Zealand I wouldn’t be in a rush to open up borders beyond Australasia. The Kiwis were having a fantastic lifestyle when we were deep in lockdown.

Me neither, I have spent some time in New Zealand and its a lovely country.

I would use the natural advantage of island isolation too. Just as Australia did to a degree though with bigger challenges. There was a reason Neville Shute set On The Beach in Australia. As their isolation meant they were the last survivors of a global nuclear disaster. But they could not avoid global reality forever.

A lot depends on whether Covid truly becomes endemic and goes on mutating. IF it fizzles out or some new treatment renders it harmless whilst still endemic a few years isolation will be a masterstroke.

If Covid is like flu and will always be here constantly mutating and we fighting an annual patch up job to save as many lives as possible knowing we will in some years fare well and in others less well then at some point isolation has to end and that is when the minimising of exposure to Covid could hit hard.

What has happened in NZ could be genius or a looming catastrophe they are just putting off. As in a global economy no democracy can survive entirely on their own for long.

 

[Manchester33]

What's all this about an October 'circuit breaker'?
Surely Covid is over ( if you want it)?

Our government regularly put ideas through the media in order to gauge public opinion before either going ahead with it or fobbing it off as hearsay.

 

[Healdplace]

THe media today is full of people asking why an October lockdown.

THAT will only happen if rising cases - as seem all but inevitable due to the return of schools in England - create a ripple effect that builds up the hospital numbers as we head into Winter.

The fear over a flu epidemic this Winter is very real. It has been KOd by Covid for 2 years and we have lost the ability to create this year's vaccine on the strains circulating this year as there in effect have not been any of signficance. So we are guessing more than we usually do. Creating a perfect storm for flu to be quite bad this year.

It may not happen for all sorts of reasons. Our learned caution to combat Covid may well cut flu risk too if we do not lose those learned behaviours this Winter. Covid may just suppress flu for a second year as it is more effective at infecting people. We will see. But we have to take the flu PLUS Covid risk of overwhelming the NHS seriously this Winter. Hence the vastly expanded flu jab season starting early and extending to all over 50. And the still likelihood of Covid boosters too this autumn for at least I suspect all over 65.

But the key will always be the hospital numbers that I post here every evening. As of yet these are going up with the cases but not exponentially.

7500 or so as last night in hospital and 1050 or so on ventilators is far below where we were with 40,000 cases in January - entirely because of the vaccines (the numbers then were nearly 40,000 in hospital and 4000 on ventilators).

These kind of numbers would be a huge problem going into Winter even if - as is very likely - far more would survive or have shorter stays in hospital than the weeks of the past wave.

But cases rising will increase hospital data. We are just not yet sure to what degree but it is all but certain to top 10,000 patients by October I would imagine. And they will not want to see that still rising going into the flu season as that could indeed be a huge problem for under resourced and exhausted NHS staff.

So the hospital data - not the cases - is the thing to watch in coming weeks. It will determine if there are further restrictions. Cases WILL rise. But the raw number they rise to is largely irrelevant if most catching it are young, fit and not going into hospital. That is the part of the equation we have yet to determine. And the one that matters.

Because as the weather changes people will meet more and more indoors and those younger, fitter people catching it will start to infect more and more who are vulnerable in circumstances likely to make it easier to spread. How much that happens is the unknown in the equation.

It could literally go either way in coming weeks. And if it goes the wrong way we WILL respond. To protect the NHS.

 

[BlueAnorak]

No, following my own, sensible advice. No requirement according to my employer to lateral flow:


As with positive cases in any other setting, NHSTest and Trace will work with the positive case and/or their parent to identify close contacts. Contacts from a school setting will only be traced by NHS Test and Trace where the positive case and/or their parent specifically identifies the individual as being a close contact. This is likely to be a small number of individuals who would be most at risk of contracting COVID-19 due to the nature of the close contact. You may be contacted in exceptional cases to help with identifying close contacts, as currently happens in managing other infectious diseases.

Individuals are not required to self-isolate if they live in the same household as someone with COVID-19, or are a close contact of someone with COVID-19, and any of the following apply:

• they are fully vaccinated
• they are below the age of 18 years and 6 months
• they have taken part in or are currently part of an approved COVID-19 vaccine trial
• they are not able to get vaccinated for medical reasons

Instead, they will be contacted by NHS Test and Trace, informed they have been in close contact with a positive case and advised to take a PCRtest. We would encourage all individuals to take a PCR test if advised to do so.

Staff who do not need to isolate, and children and young people aged under 18 years 6 months who usually attend school, and have been identified as a close contact, should continue to attend school as normal. They do not need to wear a face covering within the school, but it is expected and recommended that these are worn when travelling on public or dedicated transport

Your employer is wrong then. See the NHS / Government advice I posted earlier.

 

[SilverFox2]

Safety has a cost. What cost are you willing to pay?

We could have 10mph speed limits and almost every accident would be survivable, even car vs pedestrian. That’s be safer, but we don’t do it.

Why not?

This virus has shutdown entire economies, and with the world on its back economically, who is going to pay for all the shit that needs doing to regenerate those economies?

Accordingly, we know certain things allow us to move forward with minimal risks: Vaccines, masks, and social distancing.

Lets do as much of those as we can until this virus runs out of steam. If things track as they have in the past, we should be back to normal by Summer 2022.

Here in Southern Spain we suffered along with Italy the worst loss of life imaginable of our older community.
Currently all except remainder of 0 to 12 kids (and are due back to school in 2 weeks) have been veccinated and 0 to 60 are able to get a booster jab on application at their local medical surgery.
Whilst there is no guarrentee that this is sufficient, has Spain been over the top in its desire to protect people generally?

 

[True_Blue69]

October lockdown trending. I don't see any point in another lockdown at all. People who have been jabbed done what they have needed to do to get the protection. Booster jabs if necessary but not another lockdown. Took about five steps forward from May, lets not take 15 back

Will be the furloughed trying to get it extended for a few more months off!

 

[Cotton Weave Blue]

Got me. Felt rough Sunday. PCR yesterday and just got the result this morning. Brilliant service has to be said.

Isolation now till next Wednesday, thank god City are away on Saturday!!

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NEWS

THE DATA YESTERDAY WAS VERY LATE - SO THIS IS MONDAYS - TUESDAYS HOPEFULLY LATER



Predicted cases DOWN - after one day of rising - though just by 217 - on 52, 049 FROM 52, 266

Ongoing symptomatic cases also FELL even more slightly after I day of rising.

DOWN to 738, 359 FROM 738, 430 by all of 71 cases!

Bit like in the real numbers where NW yesterday fell by just 3.

So in essence Zoe is showing the same kind of flatness the real data is.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

AGAIN MONDAY DELAYED DATA NOT TODAYS

REGIONS:-




North West UP for first time in a few days to 713 / 946 FROM 697 / 929

NW still in SIXTH place of the 12 regions - lowest place in months

Behind Scotland (now TOP) Yorkshire (now Second), Wales - rise to third yesterday, N Ireland (fallen to fourth). And North East in fifth place.



Scotland TOP is UP - on 909 / 1207 FROM 897 / 1198

Yorkshire in second is DOWN on 802 / 1082 FROM 846 / 1134

WALES rises to third UP on 749 / 1086 FROM 727 / 1013

N Ireland DOWN again on 476 / 1384 FROM 523 / 1449 - It has been falling like a stone from top a few days ago. And now goes below Wales.

And North East now in fifth also UP up to 640 / 1041 FROM 624 / 1029.



London has inched UP again too on 598 / 765 FROM 589 / 756 but still in lowest watch zone with only East England lower BUT UP on 581 / 757 FROM 577 / 754.

So very close and London could soon be the best in England here

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Will be the furloughed trying to get it extended for a few more months off!

You do realise nobody chose to be on furlough? And for many of those who were, as well as dealing with the pandemic they had to deal with the mental health pressure of having potential redundancy loom over the heads for months and months on end.

 

[inbetween]

We know lockdown is the best way to quickly reduce the burden on the NHS and ICU

Lockdowns are completely unneccessary though in a post-vaccine world and do more harm than good. There is zero evidence that lockdown is specifically necessary compared to any other single measure.

We can halt most transmission chains by preventing people from meeting up in homes for a short period. The goal can never be to end all transmission but to break these chains and stopping people from meeting up in houses is the way to do it.

So basically, 2-3 weeks, no household contact with other households in homes. After that we go back to normal and then rinse and repeat or extend as necessary. Aside from that, life goes on.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA


AGAIN MONDAY DATA DELAYED - TODAY HOPEFULLY LATER


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Oldham still rising and retains top spot and joined by its neighbour borough.


Oldham is UP on 21, 292 FROM 19, 479


Rochdale UP again today tracking Oldham onto 15, 491 FROM 14, 752


Manchester is a surprise still climbing UP and now third on 14, 286 FROM 13, 272. Highest in some time here.

Stockport is now only fourth highest after a run of better numbers in the real data too and DOWN again on 13, 904 FROM 14, 921 - fifth straight fall here.

Trafford - tracking Stockport closely now in the real data is DOWN in fifth on 13, 799 FROM 17, 501

Wigan in sixth but well DOWN again on 11, 024 FROM 13, 890.

Bolton UP in seventh slightly on 10, 271 FROM 9944

Tameside UP in eighth into the higher watch zone on 10, 024 FROM 8844 - though I suspect it is actually well up on these numbers given its real case numbers making it worst in GM. Zoe has always under estimated numbers here.


The other two boroughs are still in the lower watch zone


Salford in ninth DOWN on 9788 FROM 10, 179 - been very flat for days now and has been doing well in the real case numbers


And top of the tree now (and consistent with its current real case performance too) is:-

Bury DOWN slightly on 8475 FROM 8517


Though 8475 is high numbers for the 'low' for GM.



REST OF NORTH WEST


West Lancashire - the region between Bootle, Formby and Southport in west and Wigan is slightly DOWN today on 33, 347 FROM 33, 477 . Still the highest numbers in the North West.


The numbers in the western part of the NW is why GM is faring relatively well and outperforming v the NW as a region at the moment.

Liverpool DOWN on 10, 377 FROM 13, 313


BUT St Helens UP on 28, 260 FROM 28, 103. Well clear in second worst as Chorley and Preston have dropped into the lower 10's in recent days from lower 20's.

These areas are creating the most cases currently in this western part of the region.

Cheshire East - which Andy Hinch will be delighted to hear is still low is slightly UP again on 6363 FROM 6039 - behind everywhere in GM.

And much better than Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW driving the regions cases - much higher on 14, 718.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

NB THIS IS JUST ONE DAY - THE COMPARISON LAST WEEK WAS 2 AT LEAST DELAYED BY BANK HOLIDAY FROM USUAL DOUBLE NUMBERS ON MONDAYS

3 deaths - was 1 last week

2504 cases - was 3872 last week (2357 cases on Friday is a fairer day to day 24 hour data comparison)

14.8% positivity - was 12,3% last week

 

[True_Blue69]

You do realise nobody chose to be on furlough? And for many of those who were, as well as dealing with the pandemic they had to deal with the mental health pressure of having potential redundancy loom over the heads for months and months on end.

Nobody chose to be on furlough, you sure on that. When I went away in the UK this year half the places couldn't fully open as they couldn't get staff, the reason everywhere was giving was that people were furloughed so didn't want to work. I know people that were furloughed and have had the time of their lives the past year. Granted there were a lot who would have been massively stressed will bills and family commitments, but to a lot it has been one long holiday. Why else would so many people be wishing further lockdowns.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Nobody chose to be on furlough, you sure on that. When I went away in the UK this year half the places couldn't fully open as they couldn't get staff, the reason everywhere was giving was that people were furloughed so didn't want to work. I know people that were furloughed and have had the time of their lives the past year. Granted there were a lot who would have been massively stressed will bills and family commitments, but to a lot it has been one long holiday. Why else would so many people be wishing further lockdowns.

Yes, I'm very sure of that.

"One long holiday"...get your head out of your arse.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

TUESDAY IS THE USUAL CATCH UP DAY SO ALWAYS HIGH. LAST WEEK AS MONDAY WAS A BANK HOLIDAY THAT DAY WAS WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY WAS ARTIFICIALLY LOW. SO I GIVE BOTH THE TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NUMBERS FOR COMPARISON LAST WEEK HERE

182 deaths with 21 from the North West

Last Tuesday (24 with 5) (last Wednesday 196 with 22)

Tuesday week before 153 with 16 NW & week before 154 with 29 NW.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL 182 DEATHS

BY REGION:-

East 16, London 33, Midlands 30, NE & Yorkshire 51, North West 21. South East 22, South West 9

8 in Rotherham and 7 in Barts, London were the most.


NW trusts:- Liverpool 5, Manchester 4, Pennine Acute & Salford 3 each, Blackpool & Bolton 2 each and 1 each in Morecambe and Wirral


BY AGE:- 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (20), 60 - 79 (68) & 80 PLUS (92)

 

[BlueAnorak]

THe media today is full of people asking why an October lockdown.

THAT will only happen if rising cases - as seem all but inevitable due to the return of schools in England - create a ripple effect that builds up the hospital numbers as we head into Winter.

The fear over a flu epidemic this Winter is very real. It has been KOd by Covid for 2 years and we have lost the ability to create this year's vaccine on the strains circulating this year as there in effect have not been any of signficance. So we are guessing more than we usually do. Creating a perfect storm for flu to be quite bad this year.

It may not happen for all sorts of reasons. Our learned caution to combat Covid may well cut flu risk too if we do not lose those learned behaviours this Winter. Covid may just suppress flu for a second year as it is more effective at infecting people. We will see. But we have to take the flu PLUS Covid risk of overwhelming the NHS seriously this Winter. Hence the vastly expanded flu jab season starting early and extending to all over 50. And the still likelihood of Covid boosters too this autumn for at least I suspect all over 65.

But the key will always be the hospital numbers that I post here every evening. As of yet these are going up with the cases but not exponentially.

7500 or so as last night in hospital and 1050 or so on ventilators is far below where we were with 40,000 cases in January - entirely because of the vaccines (the numbers then were nearly 40,000 in hospital and 4000 on ventilators).

These kind of numbers would be a huge problem going into Winter even if - as is very likely - far more would survive or have shorter stays in hospital than the weeks of the past wave.

But cases rising will increase hospital data. We are just not yet sure to what degree but it is all but certain to top 10,000 patients by October I would imagine. And they will not want to see that still rising going into the flu season as that could indeed be a huge problem for under resourced and exhausted NHS staff.

So the hospital data - not the cases - is the thing to watch in coming weeks. It will determine if there are further restrictions. Cases WILL rise. But the raw number they rise to is largely irrelevant if most catching it are young, fit and not going into hospital. That is the part of the equation we have yet to determine. And the one that matters.

Because as the weather changes people will meet more and more indoors and those younger, fitter people catching it will start to infect more and more who are vulnerable in circumstances likely to make it easier to spread. How much that happens is the unknown in the equation.

It could literally go either way in coming weeks. And if it goes the wrong way we WILL respond. To protect the NHS.

Another lockdown won't happen with Delta.
There is no longer a willingness of a sufficient percentage of the population to participate to allow it to work.
In a post vaccinatiom world, cases are only a guidence for expected hospitalisations and deaths.
Only vaccination will reduce numbers and sadly too many don't want the jab.

 

[Del_Bosque]

Another lockdown won't happen with Delta.
There is no longer a willingness of the majority of the population to participate.
Cases are only a guidence for expected hospitalisations and deaths.
Only vaccination will reduce numbers and sadly too many don't want the jab

Too many don’t want the jab?

We’re at 89% of the adult population having had their first dose.

It’s an amazing number far bigger than I thought we’d hit.