Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Gabriel said:
The people identified had been vaccinated but all were returning travellers. Don’t know whether they were Ill or just picked up in regular checks. Israel is already ordering PCR kits that are better able to detect this new variant. Of the serious cases currently in Israel, 85% are among the unvaccinated.
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Yeah I saw they were all returning travellers which hopefully they were isolating, I've no idea if thats a thing over there tho.

If this has some advantages over immunity its going to come clear very quickly I think.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I'm not sure that's quite right HP. 24% fully vaxxed was the figure I read, 28% partially so.
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Oh dear, thank you - was assuming they would be one of the best in Africa. Guess that did not mean what I expected it to do.

We have sleepwalked into this by not paying attention to the urgent need to vaccinate the world. Whilst we destroyed thousands of vaccines as unfit for use. The UN should penalise any country who lets that happen.

The BBC did say last night it was to be named the Nu variant today. Which is the 13th letter of the Greek alphabet so may be chosen for the aptness of misfortune or just because it sounds like new when pronounced.
 
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grunge said:
This is going to be the test to see if its bypassed Vaccines I guess :(
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Is there a threshold which determines if the vaccine is bypassed?

For the delta variant, the vaccines have, X% efficacy against infection and Y% efficacy against serious illness or death. Where X is say 60% and Y is say 99%. So vaccine is effective but not 100%. I.e. the vaccine is bypassed to some extent.

If the vaccine is considered to be "fully bypassed", for want of a better phrase, what is X and Y? 0% or <50%.?

Probably no simple answer but could somebody explain more to a simpleton such as myself?
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Because they solve the problem of covid at a stroke. One lockdown and it’s never seen again……
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This thing is never going to end while there are still so many unvaccinated people. The same idiots filling up the hospitals here this year will be filling them up again next year if they are allowed to.

Compulsory vaccinations for over 60s and those at risk. Charge the other unvaccinated people for their stay in hospital. Then just get on with life.
 
Is there any chance that this will be more transmissable but less deadly? I can see why a virus would evolve to be more infective but if it is not significantly evasive that might actually be good news for humans and the virus. But we will not know that for a week or two. All we see now is the possibility of what it has that might evade the immune system.

The thought of going back 18 months amd starting over with enforced lockdown all winter is frightening as I do not see how they are going to do that successfully as people will be less responsive to that than ever regardless of this threat.

There are already people out there claiming this is being invented as the compliance was failing to try to scare people into doing things.
 
Tommy_Catons_Perm said:
Is there a threshold which determines if the vaccine is bypassed?

For the delta variant, the vaccines have, X% efficacy against infection and Y% efficacy against serious illness or death. Where X is say 60% and Y is say 99%. So vaccine is effective but not 100%. I.e. the vaccine is bypassed to some extent.

If the vaccine is considered to be "fully bypassed", for want of a better phrase, what is X and Y? 0% or <50%.?

Probably no simple answer but could somebody explain more to a simpleton such as myself?
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Its a good question and one I have no answer too. Id guess there will be scales in there. Personally I'll just be looking out for cases spiking and hospitalisation levels increasing in the vaccinated or immune.

Id like to think it wouldn't be possible to totally bypass immunity. If it does I guess we're back to square 1 but in a place we can make vaccines quicker.
 
Healdplace said:
Oh dear, thank you - was assuming they would be one of the best in Africa. Guess that did not mean what I expected it to do.

We have sleepwalked into this by not paying attention to the urgent need to vaccinate the world. Whilst we destroyed thousands of vaccines as unfit for use. The UN should penalise any country who lets that happen.

The BBC did say last night it was to be named the Nu variant today. Which is the 13th letter of the Greek alphabet so may be chosen for the aptness of misfortune or just because it sounds like new when pronounced.
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South Africans not taking up the vaccine..White adults are most vaccine hesitant in the country
 
I expect we will be able to tweak vaccines to combat the new virus strain and possibly as fast as we did last year but that will not be up and running and underway until Spring at the very earliest by which time if the virus proves all it threatens to be the results could be worse than last Winter.

Do not want to see a Sun headline reading - You thought it was all over - It is for you all now!
 
Healdplace said:
Is there any chance that this will be more transmissable but less deadly? I can see why a virus would evolve to be more infective but if it is not significantly evasive that might actually be good news for humans and the virus. But we will not know that for a week or two. All we see now is the possibility of what it has that might evade the immune system.

The thought of going back 18 months amd starting over with enforced lockdown all winter is frightening as I do not see how they are going to do thatsuccessfully as people will be less responsive to that than ever regardless of this threat.
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Its possible yes. But I guess we wont really know any time soon.

I was having an interesting discussion about this on a different forum this week though, and one interesting point put forward was that Covid isn't may not be deadly enough for the evolutionary pressure for making it less deadly. a 1% IFR in the grand scrheme of things may not be enough of an issue to make the jump to less deadly. If it was say 20% then you can see the theory of it as thats quite a big chunk of the viruses "resources" being killed off quickly.
 
Healdplace said:
I expect we will be able to tweak vaccines to combat the new virus strain and possibly as fast as we did last year but that will not be up and running and underway until Spring at the very earliest by which time if the virus proves all it threatens to be the results could be worse than last Winter.

Do not want to see a Sun headline reading - You thought it was all over - It is for you all now!
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Sells papers
 
Going to be a long few weeks until we find out the truth about how much trouble we are really in. A more infective one can be managed. A more deadly one in mid winter has potential to crash the NHS and kill millions.

And not sure this can even be stopped from getting everywhere even given how fast we reacted as it is popping up in even well vaccinated nations like Israel.

Pretty likely we have cases here but we have just not found them yet and by the time we do it will be too late given the replication rate.

Todays ONS weekly survey of infection rates in the UK is up to LAST WEEK. If we find out this was multiplying a week after it already has we will already be too late if it is as infectious as feared.

All those coming back from the infected areas over the past few weeks are being contacted and 'asked' to self isolate themselves and their family. Not imposed. Requested. That is not going to be successful over the Christmas period.

I am pessimistic we can stop this being all over the UK by New Year unfortunately.
 
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Healdplace said:
Is there any chance that this will be more transmissable but less deadly? I can see why a virus would evolve to be more infective but if it is not significantly evasive that might actually be good news for humans and the virus. But we will not know that for a week or two. All we see now is the possibility of what it has that might evade the immune system.
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I presume all eyes will be on South Africa in the coming weeks to see how things develop. Gauteng is highly urbanised, with a quarter of the country’s population.

https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/25/update-on-covid-19-thursday-25-november-2021/

Vaccination hesitancy is huge in most communities, and South Africa had only just asked J&J and Pfizer to slow the supply as it has a glut of stock.
https://www.reuters.com/world/afric...cine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/
 
Healdplace said:
Going to be a long few weeks until we find out the truth about how much trouble we are really in. A more infective one can be managed. A more deadly one in mid winter has potential to crash the NHS and kill millions.

And not sure this can even be stopped from getting everywhere even given how fast we reacted as it is popping up in even well vaccinated nations like Israel.

Pretty likely we have cases here but we have just not found them yet and by the time we do ot will be too late.

All those coming back from the infected areas over the past few weeks are being contacted and 'asked' to self isolate themselves and their family. Not imposed. Requested. That is not gouing to be successful over the Christmas period.

I am pessimistic we can stop this being all over the UK by New Year unfortunately.
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ourworldindata.org

South Africa: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile

South Africa: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
All quiet on the Transvaal front at the moment.
 
The sensible step would be an immediate two week UK lockdown. Until we know where we stand. And try to slow its spread if it is out there as yet untraced.

But in the pre Christmas period where so many are depending on successful trade there is about as much chance of that as Santa delivering a magic fairy dust vaccine on Christmas Morning.

So we will need to rely on getting lucky.
 
Healdplace said:
Going to be a long few weeks until we find out the truth about how much trouble we are really in. A more infective one can be managed. A more deadly one in mid winter has potential to crash the NHS and kill millions.

And not sure this can even be stopped from getting everywhere even given how fast we reacted as it is popping up in even well vaccinated nations like Israel.

Pretty likely we have cases here but we have just not found them yet and by the time we do ot will be too late.

All those coming back from the infected areas over the past few weeks are being contacted and 'asked' to self isolate themselves and their family. Not imposed. Requested. That is not gouing to be successful over the Christmas period.

I am pessimistic we can stop this being all over the UK by New Year unfortunately.
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So far, it has only been identified in returning travellers in Israel, not the general population. However, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if we see cases identified across Europe over the weekend. Now that they know what they’re looking for, it’ll be easier to spot and alert. Of course, such quick identification will only feed into the public’s imagination and suggest that it’s spreading like wildfire.
 
Gabriel said:
So far, it has only been identified in returning travellers in Israel, not the general population. However, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if we see cases identified across Europe over the weekend. Now that they know what they’re looking for, it’ll be easier to spot and alert. Of course, such quick identification will only feed into the public’s imagination and suggest that it’s spreading like wildfire.
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Given its apparent infectivity it likely will as most places are under less restrictions than they were when other vaiants arrived lulled into the belief that we were at the end. Especially given the time of year when millions are interacting openly.

But looks like as Churchill put it we are at best not at the end or the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning.

He was right in 1940 when he said that about World War Two. Let us hope we do not face five more years of bitter warfare against an insidious enemy secretly developing new super weapons to threaten the planet.
 
grunge said:
Basically Delta has kept all other variants at bay with the fact that its so much more transmissible than the other variants.

the only way a new variant takes hold over Delta is if its more transmissible again ( There is a Delta+ in the UK that seems to be doing this. we're up to 15% of all our cases being it now ). or one that is better at breakthrough infections so vaccines and previous infection immunity are reduced. The fear here is the latter. SA has been hit hard by 3 waves and in the last week since this new variant appeared they have started spiking again.

in one region ( Guateng ) nearly every sample they took for Genomic testing came back as the new variant so its very much digging in and taking over from Delta there.
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Considering South Africa is approaching summer the increase in cases there over the last 3 weeks is very concerning
 
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