Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Just to emphasise my point above about the Gov UK data Scotland have posted what looks like an improbably low number and though no lab data error is reported they are investigating as it looks so unlikely. It is half last week and way below even Northern Ireland. Which like Wales is miles up today on a new record high.
 
blueparrot said:
I'm in Scotland. I'm not locked down, in fact the new restrictions have had zero impact on me. Argue about restrictions if you like, just don't call them a lockdown they aren't even close to lockdowns.
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They aren’t even close to lockdowns, and neither were the actual “lockdowns” we had in March-June 2020 and January+February 2021.

The “lockdowns” were actually just a small number of restrictions where we could still go out and shop and exercise daily if we fancied it. There will have been a number of people who actually got out and about more during those “lockdowns” than they usually did at any other normal time in their lives. We could even meet a certain number of other people outdoors at times, and at others a large number of people were just ignoring any restrictions that were in place and gathering at parties, on beaches, at parks, at protests, at raves, or just round peoples’ houses willy-nilly anyway with no cummupance from the law.

At no point were we locked-down.

Do I think we need more restrictions now? No, I don’t! I don’t think there are enough people in hospital or dying of Covid to justify further restrictions to come in yet. But it’s not like they’re going to make much difference to most people. It’ll be like November 2020 when some places closed for a month and then reopened in December; most people didn’t notice a difference in November from October or then again as we went from November into December.
 
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blueinsa said:
There is so much going over far too many peoples heads right now that these people are getting away with and there is frankly no end in sight to them telling us how we will go about our daily lives.
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Tony Benn had it about right.

  • what power do you have?
  • where did you get it?
  • in whose interests do you exercise it?
  • to whom are you accountable? and
  • how can we get rid of you?
 
Healdplace said:
I have posted today's Zoe graph of onging infections over on the data thread. Not going to post lots of data here.

The right hand side (past week or so) looks eerily like the South African ones with a near vertical line shooting upward in the past week.

They predict there are 144,285 new cases today. Easily the highest ever on Zoe. It was 82,000 11 days ago. And 87,000 last Wednesday.

And ongoing symptomatic cases at 1,477,757 - again easily a new record.

London is twice as high as every other region on Zoe. North West is in fifth place with all the eastern regions - East, South East and East MIdlands ahead of NW. North East though is the lowest of the 12 UK regions.

Zoe numbers seem to be more accurate right now than the Gov UK numbers posted daily. They need looking at imo as they are awry with what government are saying and what Zoe is showing. Suggesting they are deciding things from data we are are not being shown.
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Almost impossible to interpret current figures.

Here's current data showing omicron (by sgtf) and delta. Omicron apparently dropping, but so is delta, and similar everywhere.

So clearly not an immunity effect (otherwise would be London only).

Seems implausible that such a large effect is down to the very mild restrictions in place.

Directly in contradiction to the Zoe figures you've posted.

Testing apparently not maxed out.

ONS survey will tell us more, but that's lagged by way more.

A mess of contradictions.

 
More SA data.

Still same position:

#Omicron causes less severe disease in SA. 3 possible reasons: 1. High levels of natural immunity 2. Better vax coverage 4 Omicron vs. Delta wave 3. Omicron = less virulent (makes people less sick) We need more data to know the reason

 
Today's weekly Northern Ireland numbers are very hopeful about the success of the boosters.

Cases are way up to over 3000 today. Weekly total its highest ever I think. Over 16,000.

The numbers are below by age range from that 16,000 in thepast 7 days.

These show 19 and under falling again and the 20 - 39 age group rising the most (up over 1000 just today). And a modest rise only in the 40 - 59 age range. And an even smaller one in the 60 - 79 age range and a tiny one in the 80 Plus.

Such that the 60 + group actually FALL in overall percentage despite the big cases rise and account for well under 5% of the total.

The way the more vulnerable older people are less likely to be testing positive day by day as you go up in the age groups and overwhelmingly the ypungest groups are still catching this - just shifting from schools to young adults - seems most likely to be caused by the age related way in which the boosters have been administered.


1640186625318.png
 
paulchapo said:
So I've just read a report that 10% of NHS staff are not vaccinated themselves and they wonder why sickness is high.

What happened to living with the virus? Isn't that what was being said not so long ago? As in if we've had the three bloody jabs we can get on with our lives? If we locked down everything in the past when there was a flu outbreak society and business would have been dead years ago. I remember being at work when people were coughing and spluttering everywhere and inevitably caught it myself. I felt like death but carried on and worked a twelve hour shift. If you had more than two sicknesses a year you were on a disciplinary. "I had awful flu and didn't want to pass it on" didn't wash. In those days if we tested everyone and isolated people who tested positive back then we'd be in the same boat. This has to end sometime, or are we continuing like this forever? If we are then we might as well wave the white flag now because the virus is here forever.
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Touche.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
More SA data.

Still same position:

#Omicron causes less severe disease in SA. 3 possible reasons: 1. High levels of natural immunity 2. Better vax coverage 4 Omicron vs. Delta wave 3. Omicron = less virulent (makes people less sick) We need more data to know the reason
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The SA hospitalisation data includes data on oxygenation and ventilation. There are around 1,500 cases in a nation of 60m. That fits lab evidence of a different clinical progression of omicron...not so effective at attacking lung tissue
 
Latest Excess death figures from SA ( and last of the year )

Weeks ending.
14th Nov 500 or so
21st Nov 1000 or so.
28th Nov 2000 or so.
5th Dec 2500 or so.
12th Dec 2700 or so.

12th Dec's figures are basically the very start of the big wave + 2 weeks. while obviously not good in terms of people dying its really promising in data terms as there doesn't seem to be any significant growth.
 
babyape said:
"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today
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It's not the first time I've seen the words "Tony Blair" & "mincing" in the same sentence.

He's right though in this instance.
 
babyape said:
"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today
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Don't disagree with him though I'm not sure a war criminal is going to change the minds of those who distrust authority.
 
babyape said:
"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today
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He probably has shares in most of the companies producing the vaccine
 
babyape said:
"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today
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He's spot on there.
 
grunge said:
Latest Excess death figures from SA ( and last of the year )

Weeks ending.
14th Nov 500 or so
21st Nov 1000 or so.
28th Nov 2000 or so.
5th Dec 2500 or so.
12th Dec 2700 or so.

12th Dec's figures are basically the very start of the big wave + 2 weeks. while obviously not good in terms of people dying its really promising in data terms as there doesn't seem to be any significant growth.
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SA population 60 million, so not dissimilar to ours.

Big numbers compared to current uk, but again, like hospitalizations, impossible (for me at least) to translate to any kind of UK projection given the different demographics, vaccination and prior infection in the population.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
SA population 60 million, so not dissimilar to ours.

Big numbers compared to current uk, but again, like hospitalizations, impossible (for me at least) to translate to any kind of UK projection given the different demographics, vaccination and prior infection in the population.
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Agreed Im not able to map anything with the data we have and differing demographics doesn't help. Im just getting washed a long in with a sense of inevitability at this point.

What happens happens. I dont think even a full lockdown will slow omicron enough to get r0 < 1 even if things do go bad.

Edit: That sounds like im being doomsday like, its not really that. just my current mood is that this is gonna be an uncontrollable hit even if its mild its unconrollable with the r0 where it is.
 
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