Coronavirus (2022) thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
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Son travelled back from Forces work from 3 1/2 months in Kenya (previously had Covid March 2020, one of the first as it was file on base), fully Vacc'd etc.

Drove up from his place, did the derby with me, stayed with me & his mum then felt shit Monday morning. On getting home Monday afternoon he was positive. said it felt like a 'soft' cold. Me & Mrs Moon were negative when we tested, but, at least if we cop for it in this seemingly new wave it's not as bad as it has been.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
The suppresors are now suffering. Tried to be clever and it didn't work out.
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Only those with low vaccination rates.

Deaths are still far below our peaks, and totals way, way lower, except Hong Kong, which has a very low vax rate in older people. China does too, so could be a big problem coming up there.

Screenshot_20220314-070555_Chrome.jpg
 
To be fair to countries that tried other strategies they could have just as easily succeeded. Nobody really knew two years ago if this was going to last for years with multiple new variants emerging rapidly because it literally got everywhere unable to really stop its spread in the way sparsely populated V land size V population centres spread out could try as in places such as New Zealand and Australia.

The UK was a very easy target with a large population on a small island with hubs of travel easing the path and we were really never going to make the stop it getting here strategy work.

We have a degree of immunity gained from that hardship but nobody can say where this might go next. With millions coming out of Ukraine and criss crossing Europe from a nation where health care has been decimated that is going to spread things more widely too. And possibly speed up new variants.

These are going to keep coming, We can only do what we do and hope vaccine technology learms as it is seeking to do how to operate anticipating the next variants. Much as we do with the constantly changing flu vaccines.

Philip Schofield was saying this morning that both he and Holly had sailed through thinking they must be immune but now Omicron has clobbered first him and now Holly just a few weeks apart.

It is starting to look like everyone is going to get this sooner or later unless you literally lockdown forever Which nobody can do. We probably just have to live with that reality,

Lockdowns now may just delay the inevitable not really stop it ever happening. And economic recovery will be the deciding factor now far more than any covid numbers.

Which as the Zoe data over the weekend above are showing are at the monent escalating in the UK faster than ever. Though the inpact on hospitalisations, ICU and death are as yet still much below what they would have been before the vaccines. Though the spread into older populations is visibly escalating and will see those tick up in coming days inevitably.

This time last year the vaccines were clobbering Covid and cases and patients were falling and well below where we are right now. Despite much more vaccination those numbers are all now going up

BUT crucially icu and deaths are not. We hope they stay that way. But they might not and vaccines for the most vulnerable are now a fact of life we will have to factor into NHS budgets.
 
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Healdplace said:
To be fair to countries that tried other strategies they could have just as easily succeeded
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Many of them have succeeded, with lower deaths, lower economic impacts and less restrictions than us over the pandemic.

With the possible exception of HK and China, where elderly vax rates are very low, it's a racing certainty that the countries that went for strong suppression/ near elimination early in the pandemic will come out much better overall.

Because they protected their populations before exposing them.
 
FT on Hong Kong.

The fatality rate of omicron there looks to be not dissimilar to the original strain (~5% CFR), which is an interesting reflection on the belief that it's inherently mild.

China could be in big trouble, given the comments about their vax rate and poor efficacy of the Sinovac vaccine.

www.ft.com

Hong Kong Omicron deaths expose limits of fraying zero-Covid policy

World’s worst spike in coronavirus fatalities shows impact of lower vaccination rates than regional peers
www.ft.com www.ft.com
 
We were too slow to judge the threat but given how quickly the first wave spread here we might only have succeeded in leaving more with no acquired immunity at all going into the winter 2020/21 wave which was easily the worst (hopefully will always remain the worst) and we were only just starting vaccinations. And were quite lucky to have started it at all ahead of then. One thing we DID do right ahead of the globe.

In hindsight it is easy to see things we could have done better. In reality I am fairly neutral on the good v bad things we did. Regardless of what steps we took Britain would have always been one of the worst effected nations as everything was in favour of Covid - climate,our four nations approach across borders that no bug ever sees, high care home dependency and dense population (in two senses of that word!)

The trick though is to learn from the good and bad everyone did and not repeat the mistakes.

That would be inexcusable.
 
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Covid fucking everywhere in work, so far we have 15 shop floor staff & 11 office staff isolating.
Biggest outbreak we've had by far
 
bluemoon32 said:
Covid fucking everywhere in work, so far we have 15 shop floor staff & 11 office staff isolating.
Biggest outbreak we've had by far
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Yes the UK numbers are definitely at a higher level with this strain of Omicron, And they are filtering more into older ages But - as yet - no sign of a major uptick in icu and death.

This week will be very telling as patients were rising last week and as cases escalate are bound to do even more this week.

The ventilator numbers are still well down though. IF these start rising so will deaths.

Those are the numbers to watch in the next week or two.

As are how and when cases level off as right now Zoe shows that they are still increasing the rate of rise and are close to record levels.

IF the pattern follows the first Omicron wave this should start to turn around in a couple of weeks and then fall relatively quickly. But IF is the keyword.

Intereatingly on Zoe Greater Manchester is higher than it was but not doing as badly as other parts in the North West. Merseyside and around Blackpool are much higher right now.
 
Healdplace said:
Regardless of what steps we took Britain would have always been one of the worst effected nations as everything was in favour of Covid - climate,our four nations approach across borders that no bug ever sees, high care home dependency and dense population (in two senses of that word!)
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Can't agree at all.

Many other nations with similar issues did significantly better. None have (yet) done significantly worse.
 
If this hybrid variant remains non fatal for the vast majority, we need as many people as possible to get it before the winter to put us in the best position to face up to whatever is thrown our way then.
 
Scotland has had a big rise in patients and ventilated over recent days. Up 445 in the week to 1805 today. That is the highest number here in 14 months and higher than the previous Omicron numbers ever were this winter. Also four times as many as were in hospital this day last year (461).

Ventilated patients also up 50% in a week - 18 to 27. Though that is below the 40 from the 461 patients a year ago. So rising but not yet a serious concern. Just more than it was. And might go either way this week.

England hospital deaths are also up today week to week - though only marginally. There already is clearly going to be the first increase in the total over the past 7 days since they started falling in late January after the first Omicron wave had peaked.

England hospital deaths are also showing a small upper age range drift too which the vaccines have kept in check, Over the past 3 days there were 124 deaths here in total and 85 of them were aged over 80. That is a little higher than this difference has been in proportion

In contrast there are ZERO under 40. And only 4 under 60.

This has always been the most vulnerabe gr oup but I am seeing suggestions of waning vaccine impact here and care home outbreaks seem to be edging back up again too. Though still only by small margins

We appear at a tipping point with this new variant. The next few days will tell which way it tips.
 
To complete my promised weekly Monday round up of where we are - not good news on the hospital front in England. Though no surprise given the other numbers this weekend.

The biggest weekend rise in weeks - from 9369 Friday to 10,576 today - up 668 today alone.

This is up from 8923 last Monday (when the rise was 421). Up 1653 V a rise of just 385 last Monday. Every region in England is up by a modestly large number. NW - 143 over the weekend to 1514.

All 7 regions are between 1081 and 1823 - closer together than I ever recall them.Usually one or two stnd out. But this cases wave is UK wide at the same time unlike the ste by step spread when we had restrctions.

Might - hopefully - mean the fall will be quicker as all have risen together.

The worse news is that whilst Ventilators kept falling over the weekend from 221 to 215 - they went up today by 24 to 239 - biggest jump in a while. Though Monday rises are not rare so we will need to see where it goes from here.


Gov UK data is delayed as it now collates as one set all the past three days data. So was the last two Mondays as well. But given the admissions 1414 - 1412 - 1368 V 1226 - 1044 - 1050 over the same three days last weekend it seems sure cases will have risen again. Though admissions are 48 hours behind so these three days are Thursday - Friday - Saturday.

Deaths - from the numbers we have - ARE rising too but only modestly week to week.
 
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Gov UK update excludes Scotland for the whole weekend due to major issues making all their data unavailable fpr the past 3 days it seems.

For the other 3 nations :- 170,985 cases - last Monday (with Scotland included) was 126,604 - so it looks at least a 50% week to week rise when Scotland is added.

England only 163,954 V 95,324 last Monday - as you can see a pretty huge weekly rise of about 75%.

Last weeks Monday to Monday rise was just over 50% (60,595 to 95,324).

Yes these are just cases but they are the biggest numbers I can recall.

Deaths are 135 V 139 last week but that is minus the Scotland weekend numbers which last week were 21.

England alone is up on 125 today V 107 last week.

Hope next Monday's report has better news as if it keeps rising this fast milder or not hospital numbers will start to become an issue.
 
It seems to spreading like wild fire at the moment, the number of people we know that have caught it in the past fortnight is far greater than at any time during the pandemic, it's a good job there is a war on to take people's mind off it.
 
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