Coronavirus (2022) thread

[Alan Harper's Tash]

And yet we’ve just gone through one of the quickest booster rollouts in the world.

I do agree with the sentiments of that to an extent though. The difference I think is I don’t blame the modellers for that, I do those that deliberately misconstrue them for public consumption. All the models say is if x, y and a happens then this is the impact. Releasing the model in itself makes the worst case completely unrealistic if judged as a prediction straight away.

Was their “best case projection” better than what actually happened?

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Was their “best case projection” better than what actually happened?

their best-case scenario was only overestimated by 300% which is better than normal for Sage

 

[Bluewonder]

The modellers can say they aren't predictions until they're blue in the face but when they're used by their bosses (Whitty and Vallance) to lobby the government into shutting down society they take on exactly that role.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

The modellers can say they aren't predictions until they're blue in the face but when they're used by their bosses (Whitty and Vallance) to lobby the government into shutting down society they take on exactly that role.

Which scenario do you think any government should work on?

Best case,
Worst case or
Average of the two case?

If the worst case scenario isn’t prepared for, then millions of people could have died.

Now the worst case scenario hasn‘t happened, we have lots of Dr Hindsights with degrees in epidemiology from Facebook university calling the modellers out.

 

[grunge]

Which scenario do you think any government should work on?

Best case,
Worst case or
Average of the two case?

If the worst case scenario isn’t prepared for, then millions of people could have died.

Now the worst case scenario hasn‘t happened, we have lots of Dr Hindsights with degrees in epidemiology from Facebook university calling the modellers out.

Also, Worst case is Never ever expected to happen, its a perfect storm, a one in a million event sort of thing. Yet its the one the Media pick up on.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Also, Worst case is Never ever expected to happen, its a perfect storm, a one in a million event sort of thing. Yet its the one the Media pick up on.

Shows the most discrepancy between what could have happened to what did happen, discrediting the modellers to the maximum.

Not like the media to do that sort of thing, is it?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The modellers can say they aren't predictions until they're blue in the face but when they're used by their bosses (Whitty and Vallance) to lobby the government into shutting down society they take on exactly that role.

We don't predict that a parachute will fail to open every jump, yet we do use reserve 'chutes.

 

[Bluewonder]

Which scenario do you think any government should work on?

Best case,
Worst case or
Average of the two case?

If the worst case scenario isn’t prepared for, then millions of people could have died.

Now the worst case scenario hasn‘t happened, we have lots of Dr Hindsights with degrees in epidemiology from Facebook university calling the modellers out.

The most likely case.

You can appeal to authority all you want but when scenarios that are described as plausible are out by magnitudes of 10, they deserve to be criticised.

 

[Bluewonder]

We don't predict that a parachute will fail to open every jump, yet we do use reserve 'chutes.

And yet there are no groups of academics lobbying the government to ban flying.

Though I'm not surprised to see you're here to argue that night is day in favour of your SAGE heroes, despite their horrendous track record over the last 12 months.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

The most likely case.

You can appeal to authority all you want but when scenarios that are described as plausible are out by magnitudes of 10, they deserve to be criticised.

You and everybody else didn’t know the most likely case for a very long time.