Coronavirus (2022) thread

[Bluewonder]

You and everybody else didn’t know the most likely case for a very long time.

There were epidemiological modellers around the world who did a much better job than ours.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

There were epidemiological modellers around the world who did a much better job than ours.

Perhaps we should employ them, should they have enough immigration points to come.

 

[True_Blue69]

We don't predict that a parachute will fail to open every jump, yet we do use reserve 'chutes.

Very true, but we should at least predict that they will open once or twice. SAGE's models would have pretty much said that they never open they were that far out.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Very true, but we should at least predict that they will open once or twice. SAGE's models would have pretty much said that they never open they were that far out.

They also will have predicted that they always open.

 

[blueparrot]

There were epidemiological modellers around the world who did a much better job than ours.

Were there? And did these countries take a different view to the restrictions needed?
Because as far as I can see most countries took similar precautions to us, some stricter some less , but similar.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The most likely case.

You can appeal to authority all you want but when scenarios that are described as plausible are out by magnitudes of 10, they deserve to be criticised.

I don't think you understand the messing of "uncertainty". Or "dynamic modelling".

A factor of ten was the difference in case rates within a week during omicron growth.

But, by all means, keep on shouting about how your understanding is better than that of experts, if it makes you feel good about yourself.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Very true, but we should at least predict that they will open once or twice. SAGE's models would have pretty much said that they never open they were that far out.

No, that's entirely untrue. Makes for a good slogan though.

 

[Bluewonder]

I don't think you understand the messing of "uncertainty". Or "dynamic modelling".

A factor of ten was the difference in case rates within a week during omicron growth.

But, by all means, keep on shouting about how your understanding is better than that of experts, if it makes you feel good about yourself.

You're attempting to hide failure behind meaningless phrases and appeals to authority; perhaps it would work with the less perceptible.

A better alternative would be acknowledging just how badly wrong they were, understanding why, and improving how they work so they can provide better advice/modelling the next time this happens.

If they're anywhere near as arrogant as you, that sadly won't happen.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If they're anywhere near as arrogant as you

You believe you know better than world experts; I'm arrogant.

Got it.

 

[Bluewonder]

You believe you know better than world experts; I'm arrogant.

Got it.

I don't believe I know better, I'm criticising their performance.
Work on your comprehension skills.