Coronavirus (2022) thread

meltonblue said:
The danish model was a prediction not a projection of scenarios. What a lot seem to be ignoring is that the danish prediction was also used both by Sage and the government. The head of danish modelling is a member of Sage too.
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A projection of scenarios is a total waste of time. As has been proven.
 
BlueAnorak said:
A projection of scenarios is a total waste of time. As has been proven.
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Proven by what? Surely you only need to look at the US to think we were right to accelerate the booster programme?

And of course it isn’t. It gives the trigger points to provide for early decision making. Thankfully with omicron, it was obvious pretty early on that no further additional decisions were needed (I’d strongly argue not just because of the severity of omicron, which is understated by quite a few, but because they made the most important decision early and that was the booster)
 
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BlueAnorak said:
I've read the documents from SAGE and the best case scenario was worse than actuals (as usual).
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The total deaths from the pandemic is slightly higher than their reasonable worst case scenario from July 2020.

You do understand that we would always want the actual to be lower than their scenario though, even in their optimistic ones?
 
meltonblue said:
The total deaths from the pandemic is slightly higher than their reasonable worst case scenario from July 2020.

You do understand that we would always want the actual to be lower than their scenario though, even in their optimistic ones?
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Of course, but the problem with that is nobody will believe ANYTHING they publish in the future. You do understand that don't you?
 
BlueAnorak said:
Of course, but the problem with that is nobody will believe ANYTHING they publish in the future. You do understand that don't you?
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Right and as I said I predominately blame the media for that given if they think it’s a best case prediction of what will happen, then they’re not understanding it properly at all. If it was explained what they were actually saying it for and therefore what they’re used for then that issue wouldn’t happen.

Got no issue with them looking at the forecast rather than the scenario planning. As already said though, the denmark model provided to Sage was pretty spot on too though.

It is a balancing act though admittedly and I have said a few times I think they’ve been too transparent at times.
 
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