Coronavirus (2022) thread

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Healdplace said:
Even with the obviouly less than actual case numbers of around 200,000 a day and a bit over 2000 a day going into hospital you can see that. And that 200,000 is an underestimate of cases and the 2000 a real number. So it is a tiny fraction.

On this day last year we were a few days from the peak of the Jan 2021 wave. With 60,916 cases on 5 Jan.

There were 4119 admissions from that level of cases then.

Today it is half that from over 3 times as many cases. So even on that measure about six times as many testing positive were going into hospital last year v today.

There were 30,686 in hospital a year ago and just under 18,000 today. And 2645 on ventilators then v 868 today.

This is a very different situation to a year ago. On every measure.
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The measures that might be similar to last year (or different) is staff availability / sickness absence.
 
Healdplace said:
Even with the obviouly less than actual case numbers of around 200,000 a day and a bit over 2000 a day going into hospital you can see that. And that 200,000 is an underestimate of cases and the 2000 a real number. So it is a tiny fraction.

On this day last year we were a few days from the peak of the Jan 2021 wave. With 60,916 cases on 5 Jan.

There were 4119 admissions from that level of cases then.

Today it is half that from over 3 times as many cases. So even on that measure about six times as many testing positive were going into hospital last year v today.

There were 30,686 in hospital a year ago and just under 18,000 today. And 2645 on ventilators then v 868 today.

This is a very different situation to a year ago. On every measure.
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good news, but could be much better without the staff isolations and rise in admissions. Fingers crossed we will get through this as we are.
I recall some on here were backing Whitty and co over their doomsday Omircron scenario a month ago which again seems well wide of the mark. Also no sign of the widely forecast winter flu epidemic yet which was also forecast.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
The measures that might be similar to last year (or different) is staff availability / sickness absence.
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Indeed. It might even be worse as this is a way more infective variant so much easier for staff to catch it however cautious they are being. Plus a lot of the cases have been reaching families via their children which is another big difference not occurring 12 months ago. Numbers there have fallen over the Christmas holidays massively. But it seems likely they will rise again in coming days as schools return.

The Northern Ireland numbers by age group diagram charts that well daily.
 
1641412033470.png
Here is todays Northern Ireland past 7 days (over 50,000 cases now!) by age range.

You can see how the children are still well over the older age groups - though the top ages are rising fast due to family seeing them over Christmas and the Care Home outbreaks quadrupling over the past 2 weeks.

It transferred to the younger adults out enjoying Christmas but will shift again in coming days and the bottom of this graph will fll out and top swell a little but as long as it remains only a small increase at the top deaths should not become anything like our worst fears.
 
Healdplace said:
View attachment 33794
Here is todays Northern Ireland past 7 days (over 50,000 cases now!) by age range.

You can see how the children are still well over the older age groups - though the top ages are rising fast due to family seeing them over Christmas and the Care Home outbreaks quadrupling over the past 2 weeks.

It transferred to the younger adults out enjoying Christmas but will shift again in coming days and the bottom of this graph will fll out and top swell a little but as long as it remains only a small increase at the top deaths should not become anything like our worst fears.
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Interesting to note that the female of the species had more Covid than the male.
Shock, shock, horror.
 
blueparrot said:
No, I know somebody that had previously had a heart attack ,who though he was having another and his wife panicked called an ambulance. When he got to hospital it was to his and her great embarrasment bad indigestion.
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A Cypriot lad I worked with, Steve (Stelios Pantalelles real name) who was our First Aider had been on a medical course to spot the signs of a heart attack and subsequent on the spot treatment. His wife Chris who was a Nurse told us a few weeks later he had woken up in the middle of the night shouting in his Harry Enfield Cypriot accent:

“Creese, Creese, I’m having fucking heart attack”

He was getting a pressure on his chest, Chris jumped out of bed panicking, switched on the light, their cat jumped off his chest, been having a kip on top of Steve, he never lived that one down.
 
hammocity said:
A Cypriot lad I worked with, Steve (Stelios Pantalelles real name) who was our First Aider had been on a medical course to spot the signs of a heart attack and subsequent on the spot treatment. His wife Chris who was a Nurse told us a few weeks later he had woken up in the middle of the night shouting in his Harry Enfield Cypriot accent:

“Creese, Creese, I’m having fucking heart attack”

He was getting a pressure on his chest, Chris jumped out of bed panicking, switched on the light, their cat jumped off his chest, been having a kip on top of Steve, he never lived that one down.
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A Cat scan would have given him the right diagnosis in this case mate.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
Interesting to note that the female of the species had more Covid than the male.
Shock, shock, horror.
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I assumed that was down to the women doing all the socialising and present buying and Christmas organising with family and the blokes getting zonked out in the pub whilst she does so.

Or have things changed since my day? Which was a while ago I admit and my other half was a Liverpool supporter (in days when they were good) so maybe that is not a fair comparison.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
You do keep on coming up with theories as to why infecting more people is a good idea.

Alas, the data doesn't seem to support you. A quick look at covid mortality (cases are skewed by testing).

I've not checked everywhere, but here's covid deaths since July for the most populous Western European countries, plus Denmark, which has controlled infection very well, so will likely have a lower historic natural infection rate than any of these.

Whilst several had periods worse than the UK, we suffered more deaths per capita through the period from July last year to now than any of them. Only Germany (with high unvaxxed older age group) comes close.

View attachment 33764

Current death rates are between ~1 and three per million per day in this group of countries with the UK at ~2: we're lower mid table.

Try as you might, it's very hard to translate "more people dying in the uk" to your preferred narrative. But perhaps you have some facts to back it up?
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Honestly, where the fuck did I say infecting people - especially the vulnerable - was a good idea?
Sadly, Omicron is so infectious that most people will be exposed to it regardless of the restrictions in force.
Letting rip with Delta in the UK in July was only good in that it moved a lot of cases in young fit and healthy people to months with better weather from the forthcoming winter removing a large number of people from the pool of folk that will get seriously ill and/or act as a reservoir of infection.
This will take some strain off health services come the winter months. There is a reason why half of Flu cases occur Jan thru March you know.
That 20m Delta cases will give enhanced immunity against Omicron (as well as Delta) as will Vaccine boosters.
As to the death rate graph it kind of depends what you classify as a Covid death. I'd look at other countries figures and excess deaths if I was you for balance. Also the different ways of measuring rolling death rates.
 
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blueinsa said:
By far the biggest misuse of our emergency services is the burden placed on them because we no longer have the mental health capacity needed so instead, we expect our police and ambulance services to instead, step in.
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This, all day long. Hit 999 knowing someone, somewhere, will eventually turn up.
 
Healdplace said:
I assumed that was down to the women doing all the socialising and present buying and Christmas organising with family and the blokes getting zonked out in the pub whilst she does so.

Or have things changed since my day? Which was a while ago I admit and my other half was a Liverpool supporter (in days when they were good) so maybe that is not a fair comparison.
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Whoosh
 
birchwoodgingerste said:
New ihu strain discovered in france with 48 different mutations.
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this was discovered weeks before Omicron and hasn’t spread

Tom Peacock, a virologist with Imperial College London’s Department of Infectious Disease, said B.1.640.2 was “not one worth worrying about too much, This virus has had a decent chance to cause trouble but never really materialised.”
 
BlueAnorak said:
And just to confirm how useless previously effective restrictions are now against Omicron
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Wales changing their testing criteria will make it look like their ‘measures’ have brought case numbers down. Let’s hope the journalists don’t allow Comrade Drakeford to get away with it.

Afetr all, he said this 2 weeks ago. ‘If you been infected previously it may be that it is a less severe attack. If you never had coronavirus and you get Omicron the evidence is probably that it's just as severe as any other form would be’.
 
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