Coronavirus (2022) thread

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BlueHammer85 said:
anyone feel like this is close to the end now ?

obviously the mounting pressure of NHS from backlog and staff shortages will take a while, but as for the actual virus it feels like its drawing to an end...
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I think it has to be, at some point this year the conversation will need to be had where isolation etc ends and if you feel ok you go to work etc regardless.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
No. This is absolutely not the case. The data clearly indicates that even the mild restrictions and people#s self imposed behavioural change in the UK slowed the rise of omicron significantly.

We have not either gone "hard" or "home".

Every marginal reduction in transmission results in a reduction in peak impact. And it's the size of the peak that does the damage.

Of course, there's a balance between what is desirable, but "go hard or go home" is a false dichotomy.
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Depends on the aim, if we needed to actively suppress Omicron ( get r0 < 1 for an a while ) then yeah its go hard or go home. if we just want to slow it down then I agree anything will help.
 
Gabriel said:
Do wonder if an outcome of this pandemic might be some form of ‘national social service‘ for young people in the coming years, which would see them work for a year in the NHS and social care more generally. It could help in alleviating a backlog that will take years to clear, raise health awareness issues in society earlier, thus preventing them later, and go some way to repairing the bonds of social cohesion that appear to have come unstuck.
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Sounds good in principle, not sure about some of the young people having access to all kinds of drugs though :-)
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I'd seen data showing quite high ZX deaths for SA. Delving into the link in that twitter post, overall SA is indeed higher than Gauteng.

View attachment 33820

Gauteng seems to be a low outlier for XS deaths for this wave for SA provinces, though to emphasise, they are lower than delta almost everywhere in SA. According to the link there "a significant proportion of the current excess mortality being observed in South Africa is likely to be attributable to COVID-19." It's about a quarter of the delta wave FWIW.


I have zero insight into what any of this means, or to what extent it informs the UK future.


AIUI large gatherings are still banned in SA, and "The wearing of masks in public places is still mandatory, and failure to wear a mask when required remains a criminal offence"

Coronavirus COVID-19 Alert level 1 | South African Government

Alert level 1 The National State of Disaster has been lifted as from 5 April 2022. Current regulations in place under National Health Act as published on 4 May 2022.
www.gov.za www.gov.za
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from what I read Gauteng has the highest vaccination rates in SA as well as being hit hardest by Delta in the past to Im hoping this is just evidence of vaccines and prior infection reducing the severity.
 
inbetween said:
Yep and even if we delve into the data, North-West admissions have already hit last years peak (479 reported on 3/1/22 vs 480 on 20/1/21) and we're very likely to exceed it.


With the number of cases out there, it's actually stupid to say that hospitals aren't being swamped or at least aren't at serious risk of being swamped. The real question is where the line lies as to when the influx is too much but we just don't really have that information.

The one thing I will agree with folk is that there's probably nothing we can do about it other than to do our best. France is reporting far more cases and they have far more restrictions. Clearly with the transmissibility of Omicron the only option available is to go hard or go home.
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I agree. It’s virtually impossible to say where / when the influx is too much by comparing with last year (as you suggest) partly because it depends on a number of variables, some of which are changing all the time. That said, Trusts and hospital networks will have certain patient safety benchmarks that when exceeded will trigger emergency responses eg postponing waiting list procedures,

Turning to workforce availability, there is a minimum number of doctors, nurses etc required to staff tiers of rosters. This can be flexed for a while in emergencies or capacity / capability supplemented, possibly, by local GPs / ward pharmacists etc (who are already very busy with vaccine / booster roll out.

Teaching hospitals / City Centre hospitals start from higher number of clinicians on the rosters so are a bit more resilient to eg staff sickness but most services already run a tight ship in terms of workforce capacity.

If the leaders of local health services say they are overstretched I just accept it. It was inevitable because of the growth in hospitalisations and staff sickness.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
No. This is absolutely not the case. The data clearly indicates that even the mild restrictions and people#s self imposed behavioural change in the UK slowed the rise of omicron significantly.

We have not either gone "hard" or "home".

Every marginal reduction in transmission results in a reduction in peak impact. And it's the size of the peak that does the damage.

Of course, there's a balance between what is desirable, but "go hard or go home" is a false dichotomy.
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But the size of the peak is very likely to be larger in this instance because that hospitalisation peak is a product of cases and cases are the highest they've ever been. We have this self-defeating thing here where this variant is perhaps 1/3 less likely to put someone in hospital but the fact is it infects 1/3 more people so what's changed?

COVID has never ever been a problem in terms of severity anyway for the vast majority of people. It's transmissibility has been the biggest threat and that's the reason why we're in a pandemic and here we have a variant that's far more transmissible and more critically it's more transmissible irrespective of vaccination status.

The elephant in the room is this difficult phase that we're seeing now only exists because our hospitals and the health system generally has been run down to the bone over the last 12 years. At this point in time, if we had the funding, capacity and the staff then it wouldn't matter and COVID could be banished to history. We haven't got this headroom though and we're amongst the worst equipped in Europe to cope with any influx.
 
Claytop said:
I think it has to be, at some point this year the conversation will need to be had where isolation etc ends and if you feel ok you go to work etc regardless.
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Has to occur plus proper support for the NHS, More investment and much higher pay for front line staff, then we just need to press on as country.

We don't shut down the economy every year for Flu and that can kill thousands in any given winter and Omicron appears to be having less of an impact than Flu ?
 
Gabriel said:
Do wonder if an outcome of this pandemic might be some form of ‘national social service‘ for young people in the coming years, which would see them work for a year in the NHS and social care more generally. It could help in alleviating a backlog that will take years to clear, raise health awareness issues in society earlier, thus preventing them later, and go some way to repairing the bonds of social cohesion that appear to have come unstuck.
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What? Repair the idea that there is such a thing as society?
 
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grunge said:
Depends on the aim, if we needed to actively suppress Omicron ( get r0 < 1 for an a while ) then yeah its go hard or go home. if we just want to slow it down then I agree anything will help.
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Ah, Ok, sorry, misunderstood you, apologies.

I don't think suppressing Omicron to R<1 is a realistic aim, or should be a target.

It will be interesting to see if China manages it, or NZ. Australia seems to have given up on suppression.

Since Delta hit (note log scale and with due scepticism on the China numbers):

1641466992024.png
 
Why is info so conflicting? A test and trace ping/email says you've been in contact with someone who's tested positive for Covid and must isolate for 10 days. Nothing about the day 7 release if LFT negative and nothing about you don't need to isolate if fully vaccinated (which is what Govt guidance says).

And Whitty apparently suggesting that isolation might go on beyond 10 days if you're still testing positive.
 
"NHS stretched like never before"
7826acd4eca3b9a20081a39f52b02e60.jpg
 
If you've got symptoms, chances are it's Covid. PCR labs has been reporting 12% of tests were positive (so symptoms were of other illness) but now over 50%.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Ah, Ok, sorry, misunderstood you, apologies.

I don't think suppressing Omicron to R<1 is a realistic aim, or should be a target.

It will be interesting to see if China manages it, or NZ. Australia seems to have given up on suppression.

Since Delta hit (note log scale and with due scepticism on the China numbers):

View attachment 33826
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Yeah I believe Martin Tyler’s commentary on United more than I believe Covid stats coming out of China.
 
Octavian said:
Yeah I believe Martin Tyler’s commentary on United more than I believe Covid stats coming out of China.
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I don't believe the stats, but I do believe the overall picture of suppression of the virus.

(I talk with both locals and expats in China as part of my job).
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I don't believe the stats, but I do believe the overall picture of suppression of the virus.

(I talk with both locals and expats in China as part of my job).
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I don’t think we’ll ever suppress Omicron to a significant level that wouldn’t absolutely fuck society but that’s my amateur take on it.
 
As countries such as Ireland and France are finding, tough restrictions on socialising and so on are making no difference to the incredible spread of Omicron. Both have high vaccination rates but cases per head of population are similar or higher than the UK.

It’s really just wishful thinking to hope that anything less than Chinese style restrictions will have an impact as they are doomed to failure. It’s not a case of government policy, inertia or whatever as a combination of extremely high transmissibility plus a certain amount of ‘war weariness’ means we have to accept its blasting through all those that will end up getting it.
 
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