Coronavirus (2022) thread

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Inclined to think falling positive tests is likely due to us in partly switching from individuals self-selecting on the basis of risk of carrying infection (displaying symptoms, close contact with infected individuals), to testing entire cohorts, schoolkids and essential workers.

NHS leader I heard earlier on suggested they were working on the assumption that the wave would not peak for another two weeks. Actual modelling used by the NHS has been pretty reliable so far.
 
Healdplace said:
178,250 cases - down both day to day and week to week

149,405 in England - also down both on day and week

229 deaths up from 203 last week

England up 178 to 193 on week

1,811,239 pillar 1 & 2 tests - down over 200K on yesterday but UP 316 K on last week.

Quite encouraging numbers.
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Looks like it could be levelling off especially in England. I know loads of people with it currently.
 
Summerbuzz said:
Inclined to think falling positive tests is likely due to us in partly switching from individuals self-selecting on the basis of risk of carrying infection (displaying symptoms, close contact with infected individuals), to testing entire cohorts, schoolkids and essential workers.

NHS leader I heard earlier on suggested they were working on the assumption that the wave would not peak for another two weeks. Actual modelling used by the NHS has been pretty reliable so far.
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thatis what i suspected, but tests have stayed roughly the same and PCR testsing has actually increased.
 
kaz7 said:
The health secretary said he had been told that in the hospital's intensive care unit for COVID patients an estimated 70% of patients were unvaccinated.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Health Secretary Sajid Javid says there will be a 'rocky few weeks ahead' for NHS as two major incidents declared

Speaking during a visit to a hospital in south London, Sajid Javid says these are "challenging times" for the health service and the "best thing" people can do is get their COVID booster jab.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
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should charge them. These people are making it worse for everyone!
 
Very good hospital data in England too

Admissions down week to week for first time in a while (2370 to 2139 - these are 48 hours behind the other data which is otherwise today)

Patients up just 105 (on 16,163) lowest all week and much less than the rise of 943 last Friday (when it was 12,395).

Modest rises even in North West (up 20) and fall for second day running in London. Midlands has actually overtaken North West as the second highest patients (up 234 in past 48 hours to 2943 - no surprise given it being the region now rising the most proportionately in cases).

And ventilated patients down almost everywhere (London 242 to 224, North West 97 to 93) and in total from 762 to 728 lowest in some time (28 October). They have been fairly steady or gradually falling for weeks not rising despite Omicron numbers. Possibly the best news of all.
 
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Churchlawtonblue said:
thatis what i suspected, but tests have stayed roughly the same and PCR testsing has actually increased.
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hmmm. can't say I have real evidence, but if lat flows were in short supply, people with coughs are going to go straight for a PCR. and there's been a lot of non-covid coughs going around locally.

Javid quoted on the front page of the BBC as saying the concern is older people are starting to catch it. This is how it happened in previous waves, it moved up the ages over time. I also noticed it creeping up in London just before NYE.

If you'd have asked me yesterday, I would have bet quite confidently that Boris & co would be seeing this out this wave as we are. But there's been a lot COVID news reports on the BBC today, unlike yesterday. NHS shortages especially. Loads of NHS leaders being interviewed. I wouldn't be surprised if the leaders were hedging their bets and preparing the ground for possible short term restrictions. Same time, Javid's comments could just be seen as nipping things in the bud, effectively saying they already know what's coming.

The hospital numbers do look good tho. Great news.

Feeling pretty unfussed about it all tho. What happens, happens - as long as we don't end up in too deep again, then picking up the pieces with less than effective restrictions, like we did for 6 months like last year. I'm burned out from caring and worrying over every new day, for sure.
 
The R rate in England has increased and is now estimated to be between 1.2 to 1.5, according to the latest figures from the UK Health Security Agency - as new data shows the Omicron strain sweeping across the nation.

The reproduction figure means that for every 10 people with coronavirus they will, on average, infect between 12 to 15 people.
 
Summerbuzz said:
hmmm. can't say I have real evidence, but if lat flows were in short supply, people with coughs are going to go straight for a PCR. and there's been a lot of non-covid coughs going around locally.

Javid quoted on the front page of the BBC as saying the concern is older people are starting to catch it. This is how it happened in previous waves, it moved up the ages over time. I also noticed it creeping up in London just before NYE.

If you'd have asked me yesterday, I would have bet quite confidently that Boris & co would be seeing this out this wave as we are. But there's been a lot COVID news reports on the BBC today, unlike yesterday. NHS shortages especially. Loads of NHS leaders being interviewed. I wouldn't be surprised if the leaders were hedging their bets and preparing the ground for possible short term restrictions. Same time, Javid's comments could just be seen as nipping things in the bud, effectively saying they already know what's coming.

The hospital numbers do look good tho. Great news.

Feeling pretty unfussed about it all tho. What happens, happens - as long as we don't end up in too deep again, then picking up the pieces with less than effective restrictions, like we did for 6 months like last year. I'm burned out from caring and worrying over every new day, for sure.
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yes I know how you feel, I think the move to LFT rather than always a confirming PCR test is inevitable with this strain being so easily to spread. Most people i know dont even report the LFTs when negative. And if you have no symptoms i suspect many wont when positive. We can only hope that hospital numbers level out and fall soon and that ICU numbers dont increase much as the take more staff to opperate a i understand it. Putting mild restrictions in now wont have much affect, you only have to see whats happening in Wales. If restrictions come IMO they will have to be draconian to reduce the spread of this variant.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
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Fascinating isn't it?

SA data is (falsely) mooted by multiple posters here as having been ignored.

Yet here we find

The changing clinical presentation of SARS-CoV-2 infection is likely due to high levels of prior infection and vaccination coverage. The estimated seroprevalence of hybrid immunity (immunity from prior infection and vaccine induced immunity) for the City of Tshwane is 66.7% (95% CI, 54.2 to 69.0). About 36% of adults aged 18 to 49 and 58% over age 50 in the Gauteng Province are vaccinated. Another plausible cause for the lower number of admissions and decreased severity is a decrease in pathogenicity of the highly mutated Omicron variant, though more research is required to support this theory...

...The younger age profile of patients is likely to have been a factor of this clinical profile.

So even now, weeks later, these SA scientists are still saying that there is insufficient data to judge if omicron is inherently less severe - their current judgement is exactly the same as the SAGE assessment was in early December.

I fully expect those posters to continue their misinformation though.
 
Sajid Javid today:
Vax boosted folks are 90% less likely to be hospitalised with Omicron.

If you haven't been boosted then please do so.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Fascinating isn't it?

SA data is (falsely) mooted by multiple posters here as having been ignored.

Yet here we find

The changing clinical presentation of SARS-CoV-2 infection is likely due to high levels of prior infection and vaccination coverage. The estimated seroprevalence of hybrid immunity (immunity from prior infection and vaccine induced immunity) for the City of Tshwane is 66.7% (95% CI, 54.2 to 69.0). About 36% of adults aged 18 to 49 and 58% over age 50 in the Gauteng Province are vaccinated. Another plausible cause for the lower number of admissions and decreased severity is a decrease in pathogenicity of the highly mutated Omicron variant, though more research is required to support this theory...

...The younger age profile of patients is likely to have been a factor of this clinical profile.

So even now, weeks later, these SA scientists are still saying that there is insufficient data to judge if omicron is inherently less severe - their current judgement is exactly the same as the SAGE assessment was in early December.

I fully expect those posters to continue their misinformation though.
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Oh look that chap is claiming the colour white is the colour black again.
Its actually quite simple you know - match the SA Delta case/hospitalisation/death curves to the SA Omicron curves and predicted the same rates for the UK, add a bit for winter and a bit more for the older population cohort and that should have been the Median prediction.
Nah. Private Frazer was believed instead.
 
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kaz7 said:
The R rate in England has increased and is now estimated to be between 1.2 to 1.5, according to the latest figures from the UK Health Security Agency - as new data shows the Omicron strain sweeping across the nation.

The reproduction figure means that for every 10 people with coronavirus they will, on average, infect between 12 to 15 people.
Click to expand...
So fast too. My son came and stayed on xmas day. As he's a nurse, he tests every morning. He was negative that morning. Unbeknown to me, my missus, my daughter and I all had Omicron here and all tested positive on Boxing Day after my son had gone home. I called to let him know, and the next morning he did a test and was POSITIVE. Even without the symptoms. That's like a day and half. The next day he developed the symptoms. Seems so rapid.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Oh look that chap is claiming the colour white is the colour black again.
Its actually quite simple you know - match the SA Delta case/hospitalisation/death curves to the SA Omicron curves and predicted the same rates for the UK, add a bit for winter and a bit more for the older population cohort and that should have been the Median prediction.
Nah. Private Frazer was believed instead.
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The views of the SA scientists you claim are being ignored are there in black and white.

They agree with SAGE.

Still, you continue.

Colour me surprised.

[I'm also amused by your quantification - "a bit". Great professional statistical modeller, you are]
 
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