Looking at that and the modelling that was released yesterday and their own comments regarding ICU beds. I can’t see any scenario that doesn’t involve tens of thousands dying in the next year for want of ICU beds not being available.
I’ve already had my mother quarantined for the past 5 weeks and I’ve told her to expect that to continue well into the summer. Her Alexa arrived yesterday though so on top of the usual FaceTime, she can now “drop in” on me and my sister at any time and she’s still going for a little walk every morning. The hardest thing is going to be combatting loneliness for a large part of the population.
It’s all very very strange isn’t it.
Stupid question alert:
Why can't we as a society decide to bypass the Phase II, III and IV parts of the live trial and just trial the vaccine in life and death cases with agreement of the families. Is that unethical?
I’ve got my Mother and Grandad who are people this could possibly have a huge effect on, it could easily kill them... but I’m still cracking jokes, sending jokes to mates, pissing myself at Liverpool and just getting on with things like normal.All I`m saying Pablo is that too many people react negatively at the thought of something which is "out of the ordinary" and can`t cope with it/change.As I`ve said in a jokingly fashion on another post I`m certain some people think this the end of humanity.They need to get a grip.
You're my fave poster now :)Just to butt in but the ICL projections today are suggesting 7,000-20,000 deaths if we put in place the measures they've already said we will. Not 250,000.
Also it won't be 18 months suppression but 3-5, followed by a few relapses which if the vaccine or antibody comes quickly might not happen.
This is what I mean by saying I'm not as panicked as I was 2 hours ago. The fear and doom-mongerers will always come in first and take the worst figures out of context to scare people, and then the real figures come out a bit later.
That's not to underestimate it, this is a major event in human history, but deaths just went from 500,000 to 20,000 in a few comments. And if we can increase ICU beds which everyone says we can, that will drop even more, and if people like Rolls Royce mobilise and make ventilators like they're trying to that will drop more again.
That's my take on it too. The immediate future looks grim. If we don't die, no social interaction, for many work or money, holidays, hobbies or pastetimes for a good eighteen months. That isn't sustainable and society will break down.
That isn't going to happen. Look at the chaos in supermarkets after just a few days. You will need troops everywhere as looting will become rife when people's food runs out and stores don't get refilled. Anywhere rumoured to have food will be targeted, then it will be individual houses. Hey kids are stabbing people to death now for looking at them the wrong way, they will have no hesitation once they start going hungry. If it was one or two countries they would get aid but this is affecting every country so it will be everyone for themselves. People are panicking now after a week, imagine 18 months?
Fcukinell mate. Your uplifting words were among the first things I read this morning. Do you take bookings for motivational talks?It is unprecedented since the end of the second world war. We have a society used to instant gratification and plenty of it on demand. A generation who have never been told no or what to do, by teachers and parents and little respect for authority. A nation used to plenty. They better solve the puzzle and quickly or society is finished.
Researchers at Imperial College London, whose disease modelling fed into the government’s new and more stringent coronavirus strategy announced on Monday, said the move could cut UK deaths from Covid-19 from an estimated 260,000 under the previous policy to “a few thousands or tens of thousands.” But measures might need to be sustained for many months or longer to keep suppressing infection. “We might be living in a very different world for a year or more,” said Neil Ferguson, head of the modelling programme at Imperial’s MRC centre for global infectious disease analysis.
Modelling a scenario similar to the new measures — including social distancing of the whole population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their families — might bring total deaths down to about 20,000 if they were observed strictly, said Azra Ghani, another member of the Imperial team.
It maybe that the ''Ventilator moment'' - when our Health Secretary appealed on TV for anybody who had any to ring his new hotline - is the time when we all realized it was going to be a rough ride....Was genuinely wondering what you thought about the ventilator situation. Thanks for your comprehensive reply :-)
finger on the pulse still I see