If Nate Silver is right it's possible to control the epidemic by raising the capacity of ICU and the capacity for testing. Drastic measures now buy us time to increase these capacities and after that we won't need lockdown. Maybe it's easier, and crucial, to increase the capacity for testing.
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COVID-19 — Coronavirus
- Thread starter urban genie
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Big mals fedora
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I’ve thought of asking the question for a while, but only just plucked up the courage!!!! :-)I thought the same but I didn't want to say it! The things you mentioned are the positive side of this virus, albeit temporary, we'll just go back to killing the planet as soon as we can, its what we do best!
Tricky_Trev
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I get the feeling they are masking their insufficiency behind “it’s now the right time to do this”. They are just reacting to the mounting criticism and then saying it was all part of the plan to have waited until this point to do measure x.
Elbow beards
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Heard something last night that, certain vaccines can make the virus tougher, thus having the opposite effect, that's why they need to test. Last think we need is rambo corona.Stupid question alert:
Why can't we as a society decide to bypass the Phase II, III and IV parts of the live trial and just trial the vaccine in life and death cases with agreement of the families. Is that unethical?
Trevor Morley's Tache
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The USA do not have enough ICU beds.
Because there health service is 100% for profit, they do not have flexible capacity in intensive care because is simply isn't profitable to have empty beds.
They are absolutely f*cked if this gets anywhere close to 20% worse than it is now.
And Trump is in charge!!!
Because there health service is 100% for profit, they do not have flexible capacity in intensive care because is simply isn't profitable to have empty beds.
They are absolutely f*cked if this gets anywhere close to 20% worse than it is now.
And Trump is in charge!!!
i8rags
Well-Known Member
What does shield yourself for 12 weeks mean, over and above the social distancing advise. Can anyone enlighten me
I get the feeling they are masking their insufficiency behind “it’s now the right time to do this”. They are just reacting to the mounting criticism and then saying it was all part of the plan to have waited until this point to do measure x.
They are admitting that the input numbers to the model wrt intensive care were wrong. Maybe this social distancing thing should have started a week ago to buy time and testing should have been intensified.
The media had better follow up the Imperial College modelling today!
This shows the projections for suppression, the Chinese all out social distancing approach vs the classic 1918 'flu approach of mitigation which the Government has hitherto been adopting. We need to know has the government abandoned their initial strategy of building immunity.
I must say I am not impressed at all with the medical advisers to the government. It seemed to me blindingly obvious, and not a marginal call at all that the Chinese suppression strategy was the way to go. In fact we had another model to follow as well:the WHO / South Korea mass testing and forensics and we didn't do that either.
You've probably been discussing the models already but I haven't had time to read back. Here's the Imperial College models in case you have not seen it https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This shows the projections for suppression, the Chinese all out social distancing approach vs the classic 1918 'flu approach of mitigation which the Government has hitherto been adopting. We need to know has the government abandoned their initial strategy of building immunity.
I must say I am not impressed at all with the medical advisers to the government. It seemed to me blindingly obvious, and not a marginal call at all that the Chinese suppression strategy was the way to go. In fact we had another model to follow as well:the WHO / South Korea mass testing and forensics and we didn't do that either.
You've probably been discussing the models already but I haven't had time to read back. Here's the Imperial College models in case you have not seen it https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
I get the feeling they are masking their insufficiency behind “it’s now the right time to do this”. They are just reacting to the mounting criticism and then saying it was all part of the plan to have waited until this point to do measure x.
They’ll argue they’ve adapted to new data I assume, obviously others will say that they had it wrong all along.
At least we’re hopefully on the right path now even if it still not going to be easy.
The only protection methods for the individual that come to mind are anti-virals and social distancing.What does shield yourself for 12 weeks mean, over and above the social distancing advise. Can anyone enlighten me
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