COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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The data above though is specific to the Lombardy region, there’s definitely a spike in the south of Lombardy which was always going to happen when everybody headed for the trains to escape go home as soon as the announcement was made. I’m just surprised that under the stringent lockdown conditions we are still seeing as many test positive at this stage in the window from the 8th March lockdown.

Maybe the virus spread from the middle of Lombardy to the South (but I’m guessing here). The Atalanta vs Bergamo game in Milan on the 19th Feb is highlighted as as a key factor in the rapid growth of people with the virus in Lombardy.
https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/03/2...navirus-champions-league-san-siro-milan-italy . The vast majority of those cases would have worked their way through by now but I wonder if those people with the virus passed on the virus to friends and family then the virus could have still been peaking a further 3 weeks later and throughout the more recent stages of the lockdown.
 
The data above though is specific to the Lombardy region, there’s definitely a spike in the south of Lombardy which was always going to happen when everybody headed for the trains to escape go home as soon as the announcement was made. I’m just surprised that under the stringent lockdown conditions we are still seeing as many test positive at this stage in the window from the 8th March lockdown.
Does “testing positive” mean a positive test for either having it or having had it; or, live cases?

If it’s the former, the positive case numbers don’t really mean too much in relation to how they’re portrayed as a day-to-day comparison. Positive tests will just show a greater percentage of the population have it or have had it at some point.

If it’s the latter, well, we’re all fucked!
 
Heard 2 guys going on about the remaining games of the season left
My response

This is why we should fuck football off completely, who cares give Liverpool the title I don’t give a fuck more important things in the world going on
People are dying yet some people would go back in a stadium tomorrow
Fucking morons


Exactly, there are far more important things going on right now
 
Why isn't the UK govt imposing stricter lockdown measures?

All across Europe epidemics are beginning to peak and the only significant measure that's driving that is isolation.

So why wouldn't you just tighten the lockdown?

What happens if you flatten the curve too much? It's tail gets larger and you end with disruption dragging on and on.

Does this sound valid? I don't know how much of the working population is doing BAU but a significant proportion is and according to the models I have seen this seriously undermines their effectiveness.

See this for example

 
Why isn't the UK govt imposing stricter lockdown measures?

All across Europe epidemics are beginning to peak and the only significant measure that's driving that is isolation.

So why wouldn't you just tighten the lockdown?

What happens if you flatten the curve too much? It's tail gets larger and you end with disruption dragging on and on.

Does this sound valid? I don't know how much of the working population is doing BAU but a significant proportion is and according to the models I have seen this seriously undermines their effectiveness.

See this for example


Where is beginning to peak? I know I’m only looking at the headline ones of us, Italy, Spain, France and Holland... but every one of those is still on a sharp rise up.

I agree that there needs to be a total lockdown soon.
 
Why isn't the UK govt imposing stricter lockdown measures?

All across Europe epidemics are beginning to peak and the only significant measure that's driving that is isolation.

So why wouldn't you just tighten the lockdown?

What happens if you flatten the curve too much? It's tail gets larger and you end with disruption dragging on and on.

Does this sound valid? I don't know how much of the working population is doing BAU but a significant proportion is and according to the models I have seen this seriously undermines their effectiveness.

See this for example



Flattening the curve too much? You're having a laugh mate. We're debating by how much the NHS will be overloaded and therefore how many unnecessary deaths there will be. Not whether we might have overdone it and might have excess capacity. The idea that we could he overdoing it, is simply ludicrous. Unless building 10,000 bed makeshift hospitals and begging for ventilators is something we find desirable?
 
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