COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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I’m not going to argue the point with you as I don’t collect the stats.
However I looked them up on the ONS website and that’s what it worked out at.
Fair enough. What you’re looking at though is what is called ‘excess mortality’ due to influenza. Public Health England take the average number of deaths between December and March and compares them to the rest of the year and comes up with an excess winter death figure, of which influenza is deemed to be the main cause.
What is undoubtedly true is that based on current evidence, Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people and definitely will cause more hospitalisations than seasonal flu, hence the pressure the NHS is under.
What is also true, is that the vast majority of people, with many underlying health problems, ultimately die due to some sort of infection, which is what is happening with the Covid-19 patients.
 
US deaths currently stand at 1,704. Why should their epidemic be any different to China, Italy, UK, Spain etc in general form?
A number of reasons in my view.

Firstly, their healthcare system, whilst of a generally very high standard, is disjointed and lacks any form of cohesion. I also think the absence of a culture of healthcare being free at the point of delivery is likely to present very real challenges in dealing with this.

Secondly, because of poor and ineffectual leadership. Their head of state is clinically insane in my view. At the very least, he is providing little or no meaningful leadership or vision. He also underestimated this far more significantly than any other western leader, mocking its likely effects only a few weeks ago. They are woefully unprepared and lack effective decision making where it matters.

Thirdly, the size of the country will make this harder to manage and contain, than in European countries. It’s also correct to say that the amount of people that previously travelled around within its borders will have greatly accentuated this challenge in all but the most isolated northern states.

Fourthly, the numbers of people with underlying health conditions will be greater than any developed country, both numerically and proportionally; especially the clinically obese.

Fifthly, is the prevailing culture of recalcitrance and distrust of big government, especially within the more rural states. This will make operating and enforcing any policy around this pandemic (Federal or State) far more challenging and make the likelihood of social disorder far greater. This characteristic renders any comparison with China to be nugatory.

Sixthly, and this follows on from five, is the proliferation of firearms within the general population, which will present a range of challenges of their own which won’t subsist to anything like the same extent in European countries.

I could probably come up with a few more if I applied my mind more rigorously to the issue.
 
A number of reasons in my view.

Firstly, their healthcare system, whilst of a generally very high standard, is disjointed and lacks any form of cohesion. I also think the absence of a culture of healthcare being free at the point of delivery is likely to present very real challenges in dealing with this.

Secondly, because of poor and ineffectual leadership. Their head of state is clinically insane in my view. At the very least, he is providing little or no meaningful leadership or vision. He also underestimated this far more significantly than any other western leader, mocking its likely effects only a few weeks ago. They are woefully unprepared and lack effective decision making where it matters.

Thirdly, the size of the country will make this harder to manage and contain, than in European countries. It’s also correct to say that the amount of people that previously travelled around within its borders will have greatly accentuated this challenge in all but the most isolated northern states.

Fourthly, the numbers of people with underlying health conditions will be greater than any developed country, both numerically and proportionally; especially the clinically obese.

Fifthly, is the prevailing culture of recalcitrance and distrust of big government, especially within the more rural states. This will make operating and enforcing any policy around this pandemic (Federal or State) far more challenging and make the likelihood of social disorder far greater. This characteristic renders any comparison with China to be nugatory.

Sixthly, and this follows on from five, is the proliferation of firearms within the general population, which will present a range of challenges of their own which won’t subsist to anything like the same extent in European countries.

I could probably come up with a few more if I applied my mind more rigorously to the issue.
There are some great words in there mate, ones I’ve never heard of and pretty sure never will see again. Exemplary, even for you.
 
A number of reasons in my view.

Firstly, their healthcare system, whilst of a generally very high standard, is disjointed and lacks any form of cohesion. I also think the absence of a culture of healthcare being free at the point of delivery is likely to present very real challenges in dealing with this.

Secondly, because of poor and ineffectual leadership. Their head of state is clinically insane in my view. At the very least, he is providing little or no meaningful leadership or vision. He also underestimated this far more significantly than any other western leader, mocking its likely effects only a few weeks ago. They are woefully unprepared and lack effective decision making where it matters.

Thirdly, the size of the country will make this harder to manage and contain, than in European countries. It’s also correct to say that the amount of people that previously travelled around within its borders will have greatly accentuated this challenge in all but the most isolated northern states.

Fourthly, the numbers of people with underlying health conditions will be greater than any developed country, both numerically and proportionally; especially the clinically obese.

Fifthly, is the prevailing culture of recalcitrance and distrust of big government, especially within the more rural states. This will make operating and enforcing any policy around this pandemic (Federal or State) far more challenging and make the likelihood of social disorder far greater. This characteristic renders any comparison with China to be nugatory.

Sixthly, and this follows on from five, is the proliferation of firearms within the general population, which will present a range of challenges of their own which won’t subsist to anything like the same extent in European countries.

I could probably come up with a few more if I applied my mind more rigorously to the issue.
those probably do the job pretty adequately.
 
If it helps anyone, weve been using an electrolysed water spray to disinfect everything in our house as it comes through the door, including all foods, plus me the toddler and the dog. Safe on food as technically you can drink it, but also kills 99.99% of lurgies on contact. The weirdest thing about is the idea that it doesnt smell perfumed and/or acrid like bleach etc and just looks like water so theres a bit of a leap of faith to it. Ours is coming from a firm in Dundee

Apparently bleach is only effective in cold water. According to the wife. I didn't know that.
 
Neil Ferguson, the head epidemiologist who wrote the models half the world are following said we will now get much fewer than 20,000 deaths.

Hes got access to a lot more data than the public like number of people currently in hospital, on ICU wards etc. And hes come across as very reluctant to be positive before so I think he is probably right.
Let’s hope so, I’ll take no joy in being right.
 
Another thing worth mentioning:

I have just put the post and the newspaper in the oven for 30 minutes. Apparently Coronaviruses are rendered non-infectious by 30 minutes at 75C, so I am giving it 30 minutes at 90C to be safe.

Provided you don't have a gas oven and you keep your post/newspaper well away from any heating element, this might seem like an easy and worthwhile precaution. 75C isn't going to set fire to anything.

The survival abilities on the surfaces of eight different materials and in water were quite comparable, revealing reduction of infectivity after 72 to 96 h exposure. Viruses stayed stable at 4 degrees C, at room temperature (20 degrees C) and at 37 degrees C for at least 2 h without remarkable change in the infectious ability in cells, but were converted to be non-infectious after 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively.

https://europepmc.org/article/med/14631830
FFS.You could've said to reduce temperature for fan ovens. I've just gone and fucking baked my new bank card !
 
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