AlgarveBlu
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- Joined
- 21 Aug 2005
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Anyone with a spare hour might want to watch this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic
It was made in 2018 and modelled the effect of how a new virus might impact the UK. They modelled an R0 (transmission rate) of 1.8, which is probably lower than that for COVID-19. If you only have a few minutes, watch from 57:30. They assumed (randomly) it starting in Hazlemere.
it’s a good watch that, interestingly they reported a positive case yesterday in Haslemere so looks like they are keen on taking their modeling of this to the next level