COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

The report actually says 'It anticipates the first batches of the COVID-19 vaccine to be available for emergency use authorisation in early 2021'. Not the same as emergency use

Bit of confusion but it won't be ready for widespread use for a long time yet imo
"We are moving on an accelerated timeline toward Phase 1 human clinical trials at the latest by September 2020 and, supported by the global production capability that we are scaling up in parallel to this testing, we expect a vaccine could be ready for emergency use in early 2021," said Paul Stoffels, J&J's chief scientific officer, in a statement

 

[blueparrot]

563 deaths today
We’re up there with Spain now :-(

Not yet reached Spains peak, the estimate was we’d peak around 5th April so 4 days which may be Spain levels , we can only hope it’s a shorter peak than Spain and Italy.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Thats the very high end estimate from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

"fter the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated."

Any idea why it only took around 6 months to generate a vaccine for swine flu back in 2009? I don't even remember being offered it..

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Is that from the Worldometer site? Its been that way for a week. Yet thousands have died since. I don't quite understand that at all.

EDIT: Apologies, its the serious cases hat has been at 163 since 25/03/20. Yet thousands have died who mustn't have been serious cases?

The COVID Visualiser says the same thing
https://www.covidvisualizer.com/

I just think we must think it’s impossible to keep on top of those who have recovered because we haven’t been testing anyway, but even those who’ve been tested and been sent home to recover they won’t know whether these people have still got it or recovered.

 

[johnnytapia]

Something baffling me. The government keeps on saying everyone stay home, yet flights carrying people from infected areas are still coming into the country and the passengers just allowed in with no checks. This surely just makes a mockery of the policy?

One of the great mysteries that I cannot fathom. In addition, why is our rail network not closed to anyone except NHS staff / absolute key workers (not my fucking window cleaner who came sauntering up the drive today and got given a chamois-sized fucking off)? There are 8 trains from Euston to Piccadilly this evening/tonight. Madness.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Not yet reached Spains peak, the estimate was we’d peak around 5th April so 4 days which may be Spain levels , we can only hope it’s a shorter peak than Spain and Italy.

1 week ago I said we'd hit 1,000 deaths per day within the next fortnight. Present trajectory has us hitting that on Monday.

Sadly, a lot sooner if the last 2 days' shocking figures were to continue.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Any idea why it only took around 6 months to generate a vaccine for swine flu back in 2009? I don't even remember being offered it..

I think because it was an influenza virus we already had most of its genome from our other flu vaccines as we know flu only changes slightly with each new strain.

Whereas this is a Coronavirus and as we know from the common cold (that was known as Human Coronavirus before December), it changes a lot with each new strain, so it’s going to be harder to come up with a vaccine for this. Especially with it being novel to humans.

 

[blueparrot]

Scotland had its highest winter deaths for 18 years - this had been around a lot longer than a few weeks i am sure. The death rate will continue to rise for two more weeks.

We’re in Scotland and our son had many of the symptoms in January, the only thing stopping us thinking he had it is it was it was early January seems too early and I didn’t get it, though my wife had a cough. Not sure he hasn’t had it, he had the cough, headaches, fever, and loss of taste.

 

[SWP's back]

50-59 years old - 1.3%
40-49 years old - 0.4%
30-39 years old - 0.2%
20-29 years old - 0.2%
10-19 years old - 0.2%
0-9 years old - no fatalities

mortality rate a lot higher above 60

I’m in the 0.2% range.

Seems pretty small odds. Having said that, if you offered me one of a bag of 500 wine gums and said that 1 of them was full of cyanide and would kill me, if still probably pass on having one.

Edit. Don’t forget the numbers above assume that ALL people that currently have Covid-19 survive.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Not sure you’re right with that number mate:

https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

That’s saying 203,000.



The WHO say only 18,500:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-10-times-more-deadly-than-previously-thought

Fuck knows which number is correct.

A bit like this current one with lots of countries giving some very questionable numbers, I suppose some will have gone of estimates and others will have gone with “official” released figures.

I got mine from the top end of the CDC figures.