COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[andyhinch]

He has probably been out exercising twice on the same day!

I was thinking selling bog rolls on the black market

 

[blueparrot]

If I was being a cynic I'd guess they wouldn't be too concerned with a few people going outside and getting infected if they still feel a long term herd immunity option is our best bet, which they clearly do, even if they've dropped that phrasing publicly.

They're not stupid. Behavioral scientists know this will happen if they put a date on it. If we do, they do. It's common sense. They're saying what they need to publicly, and they'll probably accept a few laxes as long as the majority stick to it and the drip feed of new infections remains manageable.

Long term herd immunity will be part of the way out, we can’t lock down until we have a vaccine. The trick is controlling infection and protecting the vulnerable, so it doesn't overwhelm the health service. They also know lockdown will only be adhered to if people can see some end to it.
Big difference though in message between Scotland and the UK, Hancock saying next weekend for a peak, Sturgeon and Scottish CMO saying they have seen no evidence that they can safely predict when the peak will come, and lockdown will continue for a while yet, with measures of some sort months.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Long term herd immunity will be part of the way out, we can’t lock down until we have a vaccine. The trick is controlling infection and protecting the vulnerable, so it doesn't overwhelm the health service. They also know lockdown will only be adhered to if people can see some end to it.
Big difference though in message between Scotland and the UK, Hancock saying next weekend for a peak, Sturgeon and Scottish CMO saying they have seen no evidence that they can safely predict when the peak will come, and lockdown will continue for a while yet, with measures of some sort months.

Don't agree with the above at all. Not one bit.

Apparently we need 40-odd million infected for herd immunity. How long would you like to spread those infections over, WITHOUT overloading the NHS? 5 years?

If 40m people get infected, the NHS gets obliterated. Suppressing this and waiting for a vaccine is the only viable option. This was the conclusion reached by Imperial and the approach being adopted by pretty much every nation.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

So of the 684 reported deaths today, I wonder how many were from previous days?

Yesterday they announced 563 but only 84 were from the 24 hours from 17:00 on 31st March to 17:00 on 1st April. The rest were from previous days, accumulated.

 

[peoffrey]

I’m being furloughed from work. I’m off sick at the moment but, from May, it’s 80% pay. I assume redundancy comes in after that?

Fuck it.

 

[Gabriel]

Big difference though in message between Scotland and the UK,

I just had my forty winks, did I miss something? ;-)

 

[Deleted member 77198]

I’m being furloughed from work. I’m off sick at the moment but, from May, it’s 80% pay. I assume redundancy comes in after that?

Fuck it.

Think positively, fella. Don’t get down about it.

 

[Chappie]

Hancock did not say that,it was suggested to him by the various reporters
Why don't people listen to what people actually say and not to what they think they said

 

[blueish swede]

Just purely posting this to be contrarian to popular opinion, I don’t necessarily think it’s true or related but it’s being reported that flu and pneumonia deaths are the lowest in years and therefore might be conflated with COVID-19.

It’s Twatter related so I know it may well be false but there’s a lot of talk of the deaths being well out due to this and Sweden think the rest of the world are absolutely mental.

Again, I’m not saying this is my line.

It's possible that flu deaths and cases are low. Flu has a shorter infectous peiod than Corona, add more importantly you are generally not very infectious before symptoms appear (CDC says one day before). Corona seems to be infectious for a few days before symptoms. So if people are self isolating on day 1 of symptoms then flu won't be able to spread at the same rate as it normally does.

I have a theory that corona will decimate flu, by out competing it.

 

[Summerbuzz]

If I was being a cynic I'd guess they wouldn't be too concerned with a few people going outside and getting infected if they still feel a long term herd immunity option is our best bet, which they clearly do, even if they've dropped that phrasing publicly.

They're not stupid. Behavioral scientists know this will happen if they put a date on it. If we do, they do. It's common sense. They're saying what they need to publicly, and they'll probably accept a few laxes as long as the majority stick to it and the drip feed of new infections remains manageable.

Alternative view is that the 'behavioural science' of public opinions would seem to be running exactly along the lines of Boris's approval figures. According to most accounts of the past month, they moved to close the cafes and so on at... hmm... a few days after the majority of the public were of the opinion they were not doing enough. From a wider perspective, I do hear the economic health argument. But realistically I doubt there are many epedimeologists willing to say 'some' people spreading the disease is desirable. Comparisons to Italy only tell us so much - and they're currently telling the public they have reached a plateau in the numbers, rather than peaking, let alone being on the way back down again. There are also big questions over the particulars of epedimiological factors w/r/t this country, along with more unanswered questions about the pathology of the virus, and in particular, the effectiveness and duration of any immune response, that to my mind are likely to be why the epidemeologists and public health community are very far away from making predictions that any further spread is something we can endure 'safely'.