COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Rammy Blue]

Good news that the Spanish deaths has dropped again.

3rd day in a row, down to 674 today.

 

[blueparrot]

Wish our local Hospital worked like this. My Wife is on every single ward bar A&E and Childrens, every night I ask the same things for her to ask her Manager but it just gets dismissed and she gets told to carry on as they are, so whether its a Corona Ward, a normal ward with suspected, a normal ward with confirmed she just has to use the 'correct PPE' for each specific case, in my mind why the hell are they not treating every single person including staff as having it? Surely the only way to safeguard which makes me think they don't actually want to safeguard the staff which sounds sinister, the same trust still aren't testing staff by default (even with symptoms).

Seems like it should be just common sense. Also seems it’s not as routine as I assumed it was or should be.just grateful my daughter has been assigned to the green side. She still has to be careful, and is still stretched but at least I can be relatively confident the hospital are taking all the precautions they can.
Again hope your wife and all nhs workers and relatives on here and everywhere well.

 

[kippax4ever]

surely they cant be that stupid,its been all over the TV for days. but sat here infront of the window seeing people walking about..are they attention seekers, girl down the road never goes for a jog,this morning she apears in full lycra and setting her new sports watch, she might as well have worn a bill board saying 'look at me'

How many pics did you get..

 

[andyhinch]

surely they cant be that stupid,its been all over the TV for days. but sat here infront of the window seeing people walking about..are they attention seekers, girl down the road never goes for a jog,this morning she apears in full lycra and setting her new sports watch, she might as well have worn a bill board saying 'look at me'

You know the rules

 

[Rammy Blue]

surely they cant be that stupid,its been all over the TV for days. but sat here infront of the window seeing people walking about..are they attention seekers, girl down the road never goes for a jog,this morning she apears in full lycra and setting her new sports watch, she might as well have worn a bill board saying 'look at me'

Photos?

 

[BlueAnorak]

You know,, you possibly could be onto something here.

I have totally dismissed herd immunity as any kind of viable strategy because to achieve the necessary density of infections across the entire population would mean 40m+ infected and the NHS totally overwhelmed and countless thousands of needless deaths due to lack of capacity.

However what I had not considered was the possibility of herd immunity only in certain sectors. Or even allowing 100% infection rates across certain sectors.

Now consider this: The overall death rate from COVID-19 is perhaps somewhere around the 1% mark. Of course the headline rate is much higher but we all know now that many, many more people are infected and not included in the figures. And the 1% is across all age groups and all levels of fitness and health. The rates amongst the young are much much lower. Like 0.2% of headline figures and even lower as a percentage of all infections. Let's say it's 0.1% for those under 60 fit and healthy. Still a shocking figure if 40m people get it.

But what about just across NHS workers? I don't know how many front line staff work in the NHS but let's guess at 500,000. Even if we allowed all of them to get infected, that might mean fewer than 500 deaths. Possibly far fewer than that. The NHS would continue to function pretty much as normal if it lost say 500 staff.

Of course the government could never admit that this was part of the thinking. But I am wondering. It seems incredible that we should have been prepared to spend hundreds of billions on bailing out people and businesses, build new hospitals in less than a fortnight, coordinate manufacturing of moderately complex ventilator equipment. Yet sfter many weeks, we still cannot supply enough face makes and plastic aprons. It really does make me wonder if something else is going on.

A bit conspiracy theory I know...

There are a limited number of PPE manufacturers and every body in the world wants PPE. Countries are fighting over it.
Most of it is not reused so it is thrown away. So, here's an idea...
The UK needs to look at PPE recycling and invest in Ozone fumigation equipment to clean it and chemical sprays to reactivate masks with active chemical components.

 

[marco]

You know the rules

oh you like the plus size woman,,il get you some pics asap for you personal plesure ;-)

 

[Rammy Blue]

I’m shit at posting photos, but if anyone has a minute to post the Spanish deaths graph then it is most definitely encouraging.

 

[Chippy_boy]

There’s a huge problem with that though, and I appreciate you’re not being entirely serious, but you could never have enough control to ‘kill only 500’. What’s clear about this virus, like most others to be fair, is that the viral load exposure is the biggest threat to people who are otherwise in good health. Like influenza, SARS and MERS, there is no reason to not think that, for Covid-19, the bigger the viral load you’re exposed to the more serious the infection will be. This is why unprotected medics are at greatest risk as they can be exposed to huge amounts of virus on a daily basis, as can any of the key workers, of course.

FWIW I was being serious. Not in the "Let's klll 500 doctors and nurses" sense. But more in the "what might the impact be and in this most desperate of almost war-like situations, are the possible losses acceptable" sense.

I had not considered the viral load question tbf. But is that valid? I'd heard reports that it is not?

If the reported death rate amongst fit and healthy under 50 is 0.2% to 0.4%, then it could easily be 0.02% to 0.04% at the end of all of this once we finally know how many people were *actually* infected, as opposed to known infections. That could mean as few as 100 or 200 front-line NHS staff dying, even if they all got it. Of that order of magnitude anyway. And that's out perhaps 10,000 or 20,000 deaths nationally. What's clear is that the elderly and those with serious underlying health issues, are *enormously* more at risk - at a guess perhaps 100x more. And there are not many doctors and nurses over 80 or who continue to work whilst having chemo, for example.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Good news that the Spanish deaths has dropped again.

3rd day in a row, down to 674 today.

Check at 8pm tonight. The figure may have gone up by then. They do a recheck thing during the day.
It is good news though, because it won't go up by much.