It does seem like Spain has peaked and is now declining - fingers crossed.
If that's the case, their peak came 18 days after lockdown. We locked down on March 23rd, so +18 day = 10th April for our peak. That said, I don't think we locked down hard enough (think ridiculous scenes on London underground) so I think our peak will take longer. I was predicting 15th, but have since pulled that back to the 13th. Here's my model again:
This equates to 23,000 deaths, unfortunately. I sincerely hope that is miles out... and it could be. if we really do peak on 10th April, we could be looking at something more like this:
With the result of only 18,000 deaths.