COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Tim of the Oak]

The furlough extension to the end of March is unexpected but welcome news. I’m just wondering if part of the reason for that is because a vaccine is close and they’re hoping/expecting us to finally get on top of this virus by the time the latest extension is over.

The 2nd was is going to be hitting London and the South more over the next few months and this will help the Government’s popularity in their heartlands.

The furlough will still be welcome by those who benefit.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

I see Wales now have 3 areas in the top 10. How has that happened given they have been under lockdown conditions?

 

[squirtyflower]

I see Wales now have 3 areas in the top 10. How has that happened given they have been under lockdown conditions?

They stooped selling masks, gloves, hand gels and sanitisers as they weren’t on the food aisles.

 

[baggy]

Can we read lockdown (pretend) extended till then as well?

My first thought was exactly this. It 'might' stop people protesting by end of January if we are still locked down...

 

[cleavers]

Furlough is extended until March. Unprecedented support from the government. Well done them.

Whilst I largely agree about furlough, they have ultimately caused many of their own issues.

Poor messaging, and poor direction of what messaging they do give out, encouraging people to "eat out to help out", so encouraging people to seriously mix in enclosed environments, and being far too slow to react when it was obvious what was happening both in early March, and again in September. Even now we have a half arsed "lockdown" which will make little or no difference, because this damage was done 5 or 6 weeks ago, and it's now spreading routinely through families, who will continue to mix for all kinds of reasons.

We need much better messaging first and foremost, targetted at all parts of the community, but a "lockdown" till March is a pretty horrific thought for many people.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

The numbers are slowing but 50 people were reported dead yesterday so that would have been a factor contributing to the reduction in today’s hospital numbers.

Fair point.

 

[MCFC1993]

Furlough is extended until March. Unprecedented support from the government. Well done them.

Aren't we lucky they had to lock down the whole country in order to do this.

Couldn't be arsed doing it for Greater Manchester though.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Furlough is extended until March. Unprecedented support from the government. Well done them.

Its not the government though, is it?

 

[Healdplace]

The chain of success for any restrictions from tier whatever to circuit breakers to lockdowns are all predicated by gaps between when they start to show impact.

Case reductions will always come first. This has been most obvious in N Ireland where numbers have not just plateaued but are clearly going down from day after day of falls in the 7 day number. Scotland cases have done the same but starting from a higher point - near 2000 not 1000 a day and so will take longer. Wales are having more difficulty even getting to that point. But they have had pro rata the worst of the pandemic all along as I have mentioned often in past months. I speculated it might be a high retirement population (North Wales coast) and huge community of ex mine workers with co morbid conditions that Covid targets caused by decades of such work.

But I do hope people are looking into questions like this as it is how we should target future measures aimed at the social dynamics of differing areas.

The reason early intervention not waiting weeks matters is that it bursts the bubble of escalating cases at a low point from which after a few weeks you cam get to a modest number. Given how Covid transmits even a week or so delay can mean three weeks longer to get back to where you would have been if acting a week earlier.

This is why without a unified UK strategy implemented rapidly we have a hodge podge of different approaches which will not all work the same. I expect England to be well behind the control success of other nations. Though the NW might actually benefit from this as waves do run out of steam and we have a head start on wave two over the south - the reverse of how it was in wave one.

Inevitably deaths are the last to be gotten under control and I do worry how high we will go here until the corner is turmed as 500 is above the limit I hoped we would ever reach but as there is only likely to be the first hint of an impact a month from now when the lockdown ends who knows if we will be above or around where we are now. It seems too much to hope we will be below it as even if the NW reaps benefits of its months of restrictions and the problems travel southwards as they may well there will nationally still be a lot of deaths at the point when Boris has promised we will emerge into tiers for every area of the UK in 4 weeks.

Care homes certainly still appear to be a big problem and I am concerned 8 months in we seem to have no real developed strategy and outbreaks are still happening in the most vulnerable community in the UK. I trust they will be the first non front line staff to be vaccinated. It could save many lives this Winter.

 

[kaz7]

Furlough is extended until March. Unprecedented support from the government. Well done them.

For once i agree with you ! Rushi has played a blinder , you cant save every job and business, that is just common sense

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland 3 wks ago to 2 wks to last wk to today

Deaths 13 v 17 v 37 v 39 today

Cases 1351 v 1712 v 1128 v 1216 today - plateau maybe but not a clear fall yet. But the week to week positive test % of 7.1 to 7.6% is encouraging evidence of the slowing.

Patients: 601 v 928 v 1152 v 1252 today is another good sign of the very clear stall. Yes the deaths always do have a consequence on falling numbers as they do on icu ventilator beds. They will always be tied together but falls in hospital numbers are always good because they keep control of the virus in hospital by not stretching it to the point where more will die unnecessarily because there is no ability to save them.

Ventilator 51 v 74 v 86 v 95 v today is again impacted by the above but numbers are low enough for it not to explain everything. And a plateau is still a plateau whatever the cause.

If these numbers start going up again THEN we have to worry.

 

[Phil1]

For once i agree with you ! Rushi has played a blinder , you cant save every job and business, that is just common sense

Played a blinder? He’s done the only thing left open to him after the government once again proved to be half arsed in dealing with the latest outbreak.

 

[kaz7]

Played a blinder? He’s done the only thing left open to him after the government once again proved to be half arsed in dealing with the latest outbreak.

He got it together quickly from the start, he is the only sensible one out of the whole shower

 

[blueparrot]

Played a blinder? He’s done the only thing left open to him after the government once again proved to be half arsed in dealing with the latest outbreak.

Yes, he should never have let it run down, probably cost people jobs in the last weeks. There was no reason not to extend ii the summer for 12 months, so regions and job sectors could dip in and out whenenever and where ever it was needed.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths 236 with 100 from the NW. 66 of them in the last 72 hours First time that triple figures have occurred in any region since April.

But total well down on yesterday's weekend catch up number and compares with 192 last week and 73 from the NW.

Today there were also 49 from Yorkshire and 47 from the MIdlands but the NW is - as all my nightly reports show - still very much one of the worst Covid hot spots in Europe right now. And sadly we are reaping the whirlwind in deaths right now. But like all storms it will pass and unfortunately reach somewhere else.

 

[Healdplace]

England 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

81 / 23 NW v 152 / 60 NW v 192 / 73 NW v 236/ 100 NW today.

The week to week rise 88% v 26% v 23% this week is good news. Hopefully this is the most we ever see from the NW. Though I sadly fear it may not be.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales sadly another grim day.

30 deaths 1272 cases. 234 admitted to hospital in last 7 days - total 1344. 54 on ventilators.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

Deaths 10 v 7 v 21 v 30 today.

Cases 727 v 1134 v 1375 v 1272 today. Start of a plateau maybe.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland - more good evidence they are getting on top of this.

8 deaths

516 cases from 41.4 K tests.

Rolling 7 day cases total down again (fallen every day now for 2 weeks) from the mid 6000s to 4256. About a one third steady fall in cases from a rising number of tests too (41.4 K this week v 37.2 K this day last week)

Patients 409 (down 9)

Ventilators 42 (same)



Unfortunately there are now 126 care homes with Covid outbreaks and these seem to be where the deaths are coming from. The falling 7 day case total yesterday to today saw falls in age groups of 0 - 19 (587 - 566), 20 - 39 (1541 - 1423), 40 - 59 (1396 - 1309) and 60 - 79 (655 - 624) BUT a rise in the over 80s as happens nearly every day - from 319 to 334.

This increase is why deaths have escalated here and shows the crucial importance of protecting care homes better and of trying to prioritise the safety of over 80s as they are now catching it too frequently and are much the most likely to get really sick or die.

 

[Healdplace]

N Ireland 3wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

Deaths 4 v 5 v 8 v 8 today At least looks to have started to level off

Cases 763 v 1042 v 822 v 516 today - more good evidence that their measures are working.

Rolling 7 day case total 6294 v 6753 v 5947 v 4256 today - again the same progress is spread over the week not a one off

Patients 201 v 291 v 361 v 409 today (rises of 90/70/48 - also good news)

Ventilators 17 v 23 v 39 v 42 today - again deaths are part of the reason for the fall but it looks a genuine stall too. Given that deaths week to week each day now (8/8 today 9/10 yesterday) are similar numbers over the past 7 days so a drop should not be occurring week to week without other reasons.