COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Manc in London]

But life expectancy does vary by a significant degree from local area to local area, which is of course linked to income levels, education, lifestyle factors (diet, exercise, smoking, alcohol consumption, etc.) etc.

e.g. A 65 y.o man living in Manchester can expect, on average, to die around 6 years earlier than someone the same age/sex living in South Lakeland.

There are proportionately more poor, unhealthy people living in the northern cities compared to many other parts of the UK so there are a lot more easy targets for Covid to get stuck into compared to more prosperous areas, including large parts of the South.

I understand your point and it certainly makes sense on an intuitive basis. I am confident it will, in part, explain some of the differences. However, this does not explain why, for example, the recent rates in some of the poorer parts of London (e.g. Lewisham) are much lower than very affluent areas (e.g. Richmond). It is also worth noting that some of these London areas are very poor, with as much poverty as anywhere else in the country. There are various factors at play, in my opinion.

London is an area of extremes. Even in the borough of Enfield, in the Upper Edmonton ward (high levels of deprivation), life expectancy is 21 years lower than that in the Winchmore Hill ward (very posh, in general). Mind-blowing, really. The wards are only a couple of miles or so apart.

 

[Healdplace]

Btw great news for the North West hospitals today. We stayed over the peak of wave 1 patient numbers that Sky were referring to earlier for one day. And - for now - are back under it.

Patients down 2948 to 2781 today so back 109 below the peak. This is actually LESS patients than 7 days ago when it was 2845. The first time that has happened over 7 days for some weeks.

Ventilators also down from 259 to 229 - again LESS than the 238 on them a week ago.

The NE/Yorkshire health area continues to now have more patients in than the NW which only happened a few days ago for the first time in the second wave.

This is all good news, It can change and yes the many deaths here are a factor but it is hard not to see these as positives.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Yes I agree with that for hospital admissions and deaths but still not sure why infection rates are higher. The areas where Covid is prevelant in Warrington are certainly those where perhaps the majority residents are less affluent but most towns and cities have these issues don’t they?

A lot of the elderly population here worked in factory settings when younger so maybe that has taken its toll on general health and perhaps one reason why more men are dying from it than women. I’m sure someone will write a detailed book on it in time and it will become a subject for sociology students in years to come.

Furlough scheme for a salaried couple, £5000 a month. Family of 4 on UC, as they’ve no work, £1666.67 a month. Which ones are most likely to self isolate if they’ve got symptoms?

 

[03 March 2002]

Transport studies are not normally submitted to agencies but done to generate data for internal company use to justify release of material in case of temperature excursions (temperature excursions during transport are a fairly common occurence). Routinely done as part of development now, though less so historically.

Not sure what you mean by loss "into the cell". You think the lipid vehicle is limiting for stability? I can believe that, but I'm very surprised ultra low temperature required for that purpose - I'd assumed something "special" about the RNA strand used - I think these are chemically modified rather than natural RNA? - or maybe the secondary structure matters??

But as you can tell, this is pure speculation rather than informed comment

Into the cell for the purposes of replication.

I've worked on small molecules (Oxaliplatin to name one) which was encapsulated in a lipid nanoparticle. The work was 2-fold, to understand the 'natural' release rate - aka degradation of the lipid nanoparticle under bodily conditions and to understand the effects of different formulations on this rate. I'd wager the lipid is the focal point of the stability study.

I'm not sure secondary structure of RNA would be an issue. Structural conformations happen in <30 mins in my experience and so this would happen naturally when we make our own proteins anyway. The replication process would be able to work around this I think, though I'm not sure what it does to counter it? In PCR we simply heat it to ~95c in what's called the melting phase.

If the RNA were to loop on the end I could see a problem with that. Clearly if it's 90%+ effective this isn't happening?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Are these storage conditions not required at every GP surgery and any other facility being earmarked for administering the vaccine

It’ll last 4/5 days without degradation not at those temperatures so, proving supply and demand are matched it won’t be an issue.

 

[shemnel]

Data here. Excess deaths are rising in line with COVID deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics

The latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-18) pandemic from the Office for National Statistics and other sources.

www.ons.gov.uk

thank you, i was looking at a chart that did not have some data, i'll delete my previous.

i think it is still not at an alarming level up to end of Oct, but we all know how that might change here on.

 

[kaz7]

Behind numbers on a screen

I have talked to numerous intensive care doctors throughout the pandemic. They all tell me about the steep learning curve, learning about a novel virus on the job, the dedication of their teams and the relentlessness of this health crisis.

Privately many will tell me they are at breaking point, exhausted and drained. Now, without barely a lull, they are having to step up again.

COVID-19: 'You are literally fighting for your breath' - Inside intensive care unit battling deadly second wave

Just behind a screen, shielded from public view, there is a hint of the pain and anguish I am about to witness.

news.sky.com

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Into the cell for the purposes of replication.

I've worked on small molecules (Oxaliplatin to name one) which was encapsulated in a lipid nanoparticle. The work was 2-fold, to understand the 'natural' release rate - aka degradation of the lipid nanoparticle under bodily conditions and to understand the effects of different formulations on this rate. I'd wager the lipid is the focal point of the stability study.

I'm not sure secondary structure of RNA would be an issue. Structural conformations happen in <30 mins in my experience and so this would happen naturally when we make our own proteins anyway. The replication process would be able to work around this I think, though I'm not sure what it does to counter it? In PCR we simply heat it to ~95c in what's called the melting phase.

If the RNA were to loop on the end I could see a problem with that. Clearly if it's 90%+ effective this isn't happening?

Isn’t the Cycle Threshold rate one of the keys here? From what I understand the more cycling the specimen the more it is likely any virus found is highly likely to be dead and will certainly mean the ’carrier’ is not infectious. As our labs are told not to report it there must be a significant amount of ’positives’ that fall into that category and don’t need to isolate or be tracked or traced?

 

[Healdplace]

Not quite such good news in GM for cases I am afraid:

Regional scoreboard:

London 2048 - UP from 1501

Midlands 2700 - DOWN from 2788.

North East 1671 - UP from 1303

Yorkshire 3163 - UP from 3001

And North West 3840 - UP from 3388 to highest in 5 days. And first time highest numbers in a few days too.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester meanwhile up too.

1811 - so 407 up over two successive increases. But nearly 800 down on the 2599 of last Wednesday.

However, as other parts of NW were up as well this is actually a FALL in the NW percentage to 47% - lowest GM has contributed for a week or two.

 

[inbetween]

Blown hugely out of proportion unfortunately. In analytical science we've been mass transporting samples all over Europe and indeed the world on dry ice for years and years. Anywhere worth mentioning will have several -70c storage freezers. Don't worry about this aspect at all.

Transportation is okay but keeping the vaccine stable within doctors surgeries and so on where the vaccine could be administered will be problematic. It's the scale that's the problem as I suppose your local doctors will not be able to store thousands of doses at -70c.

It seems obvious that the best way to administer the vaccine is by doing it centrally, maybe with the army helping which sounds to be the plan. The government has a very poor record on managing things so far though so it just looks like a car crash waiting to happen.

We'll see anyway but indeed we do have to hope and be optimistic that it works out.

 

[Healdplace]

Nothing drastic happened in GM to drive the increase. Some up, some down.

Manchester and Bolton the biggest risers. Stockport did not have such a good day as of late. Trafford had a better one than of late.

Oldham also up and so there are 4 boroughs over 200 or higher today and Manchester back up into the 300s. Wigan down again though.

As expected Stockport passed the 3000 barrier and also lost ground back to Trafford. So GM now has no boroughs in the 2000s. And only 3 in the 3000s. And one of these will be gone from there by early next week.

 

[mosssideblue]

It’ll last 4/5 days without degradation not at those temperatures so, proving supply and demand are matched it won’t be an issue.

It was explained and I got my head around it eventually :)

 

[mosssideblue]

Transportation is okay but keeping the vaccine stable within doctors surgeries and so on where the vaccine could be administered will be problematic. It's the scale that's the problem as I suppose your local doctors will not be able to store thousands of doses at -70c.

It seems obvious that the best way to administer the vaccine is by doing it centrally, maybe with the army helping which sounds to be the plan. The government has a very poor record on managing things so far though so it just looks like a car crash waiting to happen.

We'll see anyway but indeed we do have to hope and be optimistic that it works out.

Local doctors won't need to keep it at those low temps.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Transportation is okay but keeping the vaccine stable within doctors surgeries and so on where the vaccine could be administered will be problematic. It's the scale that's the problem as I suppose your local doctors will not be able to store thousands of doses at -70c.

It seems obvious that the best way to administer the vaccine is by doing it centrally, maybe with the army helping which sounds to be the plan. The government has a very poor record on managing things so far though so it just looks like a car crash waiting to happen.

We'll see anyway but indeed we do have to hope and be optimistic that it works out.

why not set up the nightingales to be mass vaccine facilities instead by that point?

 

[mosssideblue]

why not set up the nightingales to be mass vaccine facilities instead by that point?

Prob not readily assessible to the masses

 

[pluto]

Will maybe use etihad for mass vaccination
Good choice I think.

 

[blueparrot]

Transportation is okay but keeping the vaccine stable within doctors surgeries and so on where the vaccine could be administered will be problematic. It's the scale that's the problem as I suppose your local doctors will not be able to store thousands of doses at -70c.

It seems obvious that the best way to administer the vaccine is by doing it centrally, maybe with the army helping which sounds to be the plan. The government has a very poor record on managing things so far though so it just looks like a car crash waiting to happen.

We'll see anyway but indeed we do have to hope and be optimistic that it works out.

It’s been explained why doctors surgeries don’t need the -70, as long as the supply to doctors surgeries, or the vaccination centres is planned and stock controlled to the 5 days when it can be kept in a fridge.
As an aside anyone know what is the minimum temperature it can be injected at ? Wouldn’t have thought it can be too cold.

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard:

Manchester 310 - up from 253. Total cases 23, 958. Weekly 2151. Pop score up 57 to 4334. Weekly Pop down to 390 - first time Manchester has been below 400 in weeks.

Oldham 230 - up from 174. Total cases 12, 273. Weekly 1508. Pop score up 103 to 5176. Only Blackburn higher today. Weekly Pop big drop to 636 (as 174 and even 230 is far better than the numbers it was scoring a week ago).

Wigan 218 - down from 248. Total cases 13, 746. Weekly 1675. Pop score up 66 to 4182. Weekly Pop down big to 509. Same reasons as Oldham week v week big fall.

Bolton 210 - up from 144. Total cases 12, 712. Weekly 1356. Pop score up 73 to 4421. Weekly Pop down to 472.

Rochdale 173 - up from 139. Total cases10, 315. Weekly 1225. Pop score up 78 to 4638. Weekly Pop down to 551.

Salford 157 - down from 160. Total cases 10, 926. Weekly 1208. Pop score up 60 to 4221. Weekly Pop down to 467. First time in 400s in weeks.

Stockport 151 - up from 123 - third straight rise here. Total cases 8889. Weekly 979. Still well below last week so fell sub 1000 for first time in a while giving GM four now with a sub 1000 weekly case total again. There were none 2 weeks ago. A good measure of how numbers have been falling. And others that used to be higher aee falling towards three figures too from what were around or over 2000 not long ago. Pop score up 51 to enter the 3000 club at 3029 - the last GM borough to exit the lower tier. Weekly Pop down to 333. (Again as cases still lower than last week).

Bury 133 - identical to yesterday. Total cases 8126. Weekly 998. Another to crack the 1000 weekly cases barrier today. Pop score up 70 to 4255. Weekly Pop down to 523.

Tameside 121 - up from 118, Total cases 8708. Weekly 913. Another to go sub 1000. Pop score up 54 to 3845. Weekly Pop down to 403.

Trafford 108 - down from 134. Best in GM again. Total cases 7687. Weekly 893. Sub 900 and lowest in GM still but happily now with 3 companions battling it out. Pop score up 46 Best in GM today. To reach 3239, Gap to Stockport now 210. Weekly Pop down to 377.

The weekly Pop Score of every one of the 10 boroughs fell again today - very clear evidence of the improvement.

But it can easily change in the next few days if numbers continue to rise.

 

[Healdplace]

Very frustrating to hear Granada Reports make a big deal out of a false truth.

Stating that NW has more people in hospital than at the peak in April today. They said that twice.

But that was yesterday.

No mention of the big fall today which means it is not now correct.

If only you could access the next lottery numbers a day before they become the news.

I get why they want to make a story out of this event but they also said the NW has more patients in than any other region and that is not true either.

It was ALL negative and the news from NW hospitals this week has been quite the opposite of that. Nearly all good.

We seem to be acting on old data and then discovering today's truth a few days late. It mis sells the narrative imo. And drives false steps if you base the truth only on the here and now and not the direction of travel.