COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Coatigan said:
Not how i read it. The issue is their estimate, not the figures they have extracted.

I read an article in the BBC (teying to find it now) at the beginning of april, which, using ONS data from jan1st to mar30th claimed that covid deaths made up only 2% of the total deaths of the quarter, and that the increase to the average was minimal. How can interpreting the same figures vary so significantly.
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That’s because between Jan 1 to March 31st, there were only 1,700 hundred CV-19 deaths. Then look how many died in April (over 25,000).
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
It comes down to trust really George. Nothing more and nothing less. If they can’t engender trust then how can they expect the rest of us to follow? The easiest way of doing that is just by being truthful. For example, in January, the UK had developed one of the first C-19 tests. One thing we do have is a very high level research base and every public health threat, similar to this one, is always Test, Track, Trace and Isolate, as quickly as possible. By February, despite the WHO repeating and repeating this mantra, we decided to not bother with it. We went from trying to contain it to trying to delay it. Aren’t you at least curious why we chose that path, especially as now, less than 2 months later and following at least 30000 deaths, our strategy is moving towards, Test, Track, Trace and Isolate?
Johnson talked, on Monday, of transparency, of learning lessons every day, which is all they all needed to be saying from the start. Then, four days later, we have the ‘testing target day’. People on here saying how we should give them credit for achieving when, in reality, they’d just lied again. It’s not great for building up the aforementioned trust.
If he’d said that we’ve put in a huge effort, almost got to 100k, a target we set to galvanise the system, and going forward we learned a huge amount which will enable us to increase the testing capacity week on week, he’d have had no criticism from me, as the ‘target’ was never a critical milestone. What does matter is that they couldn’t be straightforward at a time when the country needs unambiguous leadership from our government. We all need to be able to trust them and we need to be able to trust them all. If they tell us that 1 metre distancing is as good as 2, we need to believe them. If they tell us that masks ‘make no difference’, we need to trust them. Opening this business, or that business, we need to believe that the science and the interpretation of that science is believable. It’s not rocket science, it’s much more important than that and we deserve a leadership team that treat us like adults and in whom we can trust, I’d have thought.
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I agree with every word and have previously posted that the fastest way to grow trust is not to make promises lightly and when you do, make sure you deliver on them. Be honest, don't sugar coat stuff and treat the population like adults. Although I get dogs abuse on here for saying it, exactly like Sturgeon is communicating in Scotland.

That question on 'why did we abandon track and trace' is pretty fundamental. From what was said at the time, it seems like we lacked the infrastructure to cope with the numbers. Now I can accept that in London where the initial infection rate was so high but what about in other parts of the country where the numbers are nothing like as significant. Surely it would have been possible to continue to track and trace everywhere else - maybe not to the extent South Korea did it with forensic analysis by CCTV, financial transactions etc but a simple model that would have been less difficult to administer. That one decision is a major reason why we are facing the scenario we are facing just now.
 
Garry's Coock said:
The UK has over years, decades, posted seasonal flu casualties of 17k per month. This is minus other cold, virus infections that happen every year without the "news" being "on it" so much. I would like to know right now the true figure or who exactly died of Covid today and who exactly died of Flu, cold or other virus. I do honestly think the figures are distorted and ticked as Covid.
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UK Deaths per week over the last 10 years.

This is the raw ONS data of just deaths registered, no cause attributed. no extrapolations. just the Raw data.

UkDeaths.jpg


May not be visible on this graph but we were actually bellow average deaths for most of the 1st 10 weeks of the year. about 4700 deaths under the average before Covid kicked in.
 
grunge said:
UK Deaths per week over the last 10 years.

This is the raw ONS data of just deaths registered, no cause attributed. no extrapolations. just the Raw data.

UkDeaths.jpg


May not be visible on this graph but we were actually bellow average deaths for most of the 1st 10 weeks of the year. about 4700 deaths under the average before Covid kicked in.
Click to expand...
Which is exactly what we need for comparison from the other countries.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
It comes down to trust really George. Nothing more and nothing less. If they can’t engender trust then how can they expect the rest of us to follow? The easiest way of doing that is just by being truthful. For example, in January, the UK had developed one of the first C-19 tests. One thing we do have is a very high level research base and every public health threat, similar to this one, is always Test, Track, Trace and Isolate, as quickly as possible. By February, despite the WHO repeating and repeating this mantra, we decided to not bother with it. We went from trying to contain it to trying to delay it. Aren’t you at least curious why we chose that path, especially as now, less than 2 months later and following at least 30000 deaths, our strategy is moving towards, Test, Track, Trace and Isolate?
Johnson talked, on Monday, of transparency, of learning lessons every day, which is all they all needed to be saying from the start. Then, four days later, we have the ‘testing target day’. People on here saying how we should give them credit for achieving when, in reality, they’d just lied again. It’s not great for building up the aforementioned trust.
If he’d said that we’ve put in a huge effort, almost got to 100k, a target we set to galvanise the system, and going forward we learned a huge amount which will enable us to increase the testing capacity week on week, he’d have had no criticism from me, as the ‘target’ was never a critical milestone. What does matter is that they couldn’t be straightforward at a time when the country needs unambiguous leadership from our government. We all need to be able to trust them and we need to be able to trust them all. If they tell us that 1 metre distancing is as good as 2, we need to believe them. If they tell us that masks ‘make no difference’, we need to trust them. Opening this business, or that business, we need to believe that the science and the interpretation of that science is believable. It’s not rocket science, it’s much more important than that and we deserve a leadership team that treat us like adults and in whom we can trust, I’d have thought.
Click to expand...

I agree with a lot of that . The government are going to have an incredibly difficult job of getting people to come out of lockdown.

we have watched in the media the horrific scenes in Italy and think it won’t be like that here and then we have seen the deaths rise here

the messaging from the government and media has been deaths, deadly, horrific , unprecedented. Stay in your house , we are all going to die. Building hospitals to cope with the deaths . Story after story of deaths .

then this week they are going to say ok now back to work .unless they can back this up with credible science and data a lot of people are going to be very anxious about returning to any form of normality for the foreseeable. Boris ain’t going to get an economic bounce back anytime soon because they have done a umber on us telling us for the last few weeks how deadly this is .

they can say all they like we are on the downward curve now but when people see 600 daily deaths then they will Make their own kind up .
 
grunge said:
UK Deaths per week over the last 10 years.

This is the raw ONS data of just deaths registered, no cause attributed. no extrapolations. just the Raw data.

UkDeaths.jpg


May not be visible on this graph but we were actually bellow average deaths for most of the 1st 10 weeks of the year. about 4700 deaths under the average before Covid kicked in.
Click to expand...

I read one of the experts saying that because we’d had a relatively mild flu season this has probably made the Covid deaths spike higher than it would have.
 
Claytop said:
I read one of the experts saying that because we’d had a relatively mild flu season this has probably made the Covid deaths spike higher than it would have.
Click to expand...
Yes but what also will be taken into account going forward is the vast majority of the excess deaths are elderly who would have died naturally over the coming months meaning once we get the virus under control the excess could turn negative for those periods not overall.
 
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