COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[ChicagoBlue]

It absolutely does.

Back up what you’re saying. Rather than just posting “bollocks” as you’re worried about your job and want to feel better by pretending it’s not as serious as it patently is.

I’m absolutely NOT worried about my job. I could retire today. Tomorrow would make it a better retirement, though!

And, here you go...

From Business Insider:

South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.
(Largest sample of an “open” society)
This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.
That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.
The US, by contrast, has tested around 1,500 people. The country has 221 confirmed cases and 12 deaths, suggesting a death rate of 5%.
The US' testing capacity has been limited.

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

####

Politics is making the numbers look WORSE, even as it wants the numbers to look better!

Next, Trump will be touting the SK numbers, while STILL restricting the testing in the USA to keep US numbers lower than actual!

 

[SWP's back]

I’m absolutely NOT worried about my job. I could retire today. Tomorrow would make it a better retirement, though!

And, here you go...

From Business Insider:

South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.
(Largest sample of an “open” society)
This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.
That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.
The US, by contrast, has tested around 1,500 people. The country has 221 confirmed cases and 12 deaths, suggesting a death rate of 5%.
The US' testing capacity has been limited.

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

####

Politics is making the numbers look WORSE, even as it wants the numbers to look better!

Next, Trump will be touting the SK numbers, while STILL restricting the testing in the USA to keep US numbers lower than actual!

So you're basing everything off South Korea's numbers.

South Korea currently has 42 dead and 108 recovered, with 6,134 confirmed (but neither dead nor recovered) so we have no idea how those cases will turn up (and obviously 140,000 tested which brought back 134,000 negative test results).

Either way, when I am quoting WHO and CDC, you can't just call it bollocks. I'll stick with them over Business Insider for now.

 

[andyhinch]

I’m absolutely NOT worried about my job. I could retire today. Tomorrow would make it a better retirement, though!

And, here you go...

From Business Insider:

South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.
(Largest sample of an “open” society)
This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.
That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.
The US, by contrast, has tested around 1,500 people. The country has 221 confirmed cases and 12 deaths, suggesting a death rate of 5%.
The US' testing capacity has been limited.

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

####

Politics is making the numbers look WORSE, even as it wants the numbers to look better!

Next, Trump will be touting the SK numbers, while STILL restricting the testing in the USA to keep US numbers lower than actual!

Global mortality rates appear to range from around 1% to 6% going up to 9% for the over 80’s which obviously bumps the average up. Only time will tell how it all plays out.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

I’m not sure how helpful it is of Italy to announce they’re locking down regions before they’ve actually implemented some control. Most are just going to leave before it starts.

Its being reported there was a mad rush to get the last trains out of Padua.

from a selfish point of view this latest action is going to save me a wedge of money.
I was scheduled to go to Venice for 5 days in a couple of weeks.
I already cancelled the hotel at no cost.
Now the flight will be refunded and my pre booked theatre and transport tickets.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

So you're basing everything off South Korea's numbers.

South Korea currently has 42 dead and 108 recovered, with 6,134 confirmed (but neither dead nor recovered) so we have no idea how those cases will turn up (and obviously 140,000 tested which brought back 134,000 negative test results).

Either way, when I am quoting WHO and CDC, you can't just call it bollocks. I'll stick with them over Business Insider for now.

You asked, I answered. Take the results for what they’re worth.CDC and WHO are including some poor stats, which you clearly see for yourself...but you can hide behind them if you so choose.

I’ll take the largest sample size and results, as opposed to the places where we only really know about the 20%!

 

[andyhinch]

You asked, I answered. Take the results for what they’re worth.CDC and WHO are including some poor stats, which you clearly see for yourself...but you can hide behind them if you so choose.

I’ll take the largest sample size and results, as opposed to the places where we only really know about the 20%!

I think 0.6% mortality rate is very optimistic, if I was spread betting I’d put my money on between 2% and 3% as a mean average.

 

[Franny's toilet roll]

I have a friend living in a small village in Northern Italy. She's 61, suffers from COPD. Her village has just been declared a red zone. Very worrying, seems to be thinning out the old ones fairly quickly

 

[urban genie]

What I also don’t understand is Myanmar haven’t any according to the data, yet I flew into Manchester from Zurich today and on both sides they had it listed as a self-isolation destination - as in quarantine yourself if you’ve been and show symptoms.

Burma is run by a secrative military junta and a duplicitous fucker in Ang Sang, so no suprise if they lie about what is happening there only reporting the cost to their economy.
Brunei is the same the sultanate is very secraticive and is the only other member of ASEAN saying their is no cases
Laos has confirmed suspected cases but not in large numbers, but then that, and posibly with burma is because large areas are scarcley populated as a lot of the land is still jungle and mountain so the spread though mass numbers will be slower.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I think 0.6% mortality rate is very optimistic, if I was spread betting I’d put my money on between 2% and 3% as a mean average.

To be quite honest we will NEVER know! With China being the epicenter, that will skew any and all results. The fact that 80% of the infected may never even know they had it, etc, etc, etc...means we CAN never know, unless everyone gets tested, and that’s simply not going to happen.

Hopefully, 80% is also a vast under estimation of those who are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic, such that it is a “normal” flu reaction. FWIW, the 70 yr old man in my town that had it said it was LESS SEVERE than the regular flu, and he was not exactly the picture of health in his normal life.

Fingers crossed we don’t all go mental and this passes, as usual.

 

[andyhinch]

To be quite honest we will NEVER know! With China being the epicenter, that will skew any and all results. The fact that 80% of the infected may never even know they had it, etc, etc, etc...means we CAN never know, unless everyone gets tested, and that’s simply not going to happen.

Hopefully, 80% is also a vast under estimation of those who are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic, such that it is a “normal” flu reaction. FWIW, the 70 yr old man in my town that had it said it was LESS SEVERE than the regular flu, and he was not exactly the picture of health in his normal life.

Fingers crossed we don’t all go mental and this passes, as usual.

It also appears to be more aggressive with health professionals, I assume this is down to higher exposure rates, as you say we’ll never know the exact figures.