Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html
Below is just some of the more urgent bits — the article is much more comprehensive and a very informative read for those interested.
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“The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.
The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States.
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In the last three weeks, the number of lab-confirmed cases has soared from about 50 in China to
14,000 in 23 countries; there have been over 300 deaths, all but one in China.
But various epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases is 100,000 or even more. While that expansion is not as rapid as that of flu or measles, it is an enormous leap beyond what virologists saw when SARS and MERS emerged.
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The mortality rate for known cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has been running about 2 percent, although that is likely to drop as more tests are done and more mild cases are found.
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“This looks far more like H1N1’s spread than SARS, and I am increasingly alarmed,” said Dr. Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Even 1 percent mortality would mean 10,000 deaths in each million people.” ”