Whilst we won’t get an accurate figure for the mortality rate until it’s over it is possible to get a reasonable estimate from what’s happened in China so far now that the number of new cases is down to a trickle and that estimate is good enough for everyone to know that it’s at least an order of magnitude greater than seasonal flu.Flu is well-characterised. COVID19 is not. We don't know the infection rates therefore we don't know the fatality rates.
We shall have to agree to dissagree on this. I am aware of the issues, and am concerned I just dont think we should be as alarmist as you are. I would ask you to calm down a bit theres no need to swear at me.Oh my fucking God!!
of course there’s a significant difference. The 0.1% for Flu is across EVERYONE THAT IS INFECTED just like the 3.4% for Covid-19 is.
So if you’re under 40 and get Flu, you don’t have a 0.1% of dying, you have a 0.01% chance of dying (compared with 0.2% of Covid-19, more than double an order of magnitude).
It is at least an order of magnitude more lethal. I don’t know any other way of explaining this to you, you can’t compare under 40’s with Covid-19 against the “whole population” that gets Flu and say they’re comparable. They’re not.
It’s posts like yours that are so fucking frustrating because you don’t understand maths, epidemiology, fatality rates across demographics and, it seems, basic English comprehension.
Italy are not plunging themselves into a recession for something only as lethal as the fucking Flu.
Oh my fucking God!!
of course there’s a significant difference. The 0.1% for Flu is across EVERYONE THAT IS INFECTED just like the 3.4% for Covid-19 is.
So if you’re under 40 and get Flu, you don’t have a 0.1% of dying, you have a 0.01% chance of dying (compared with 0.2% of Covid-19, more than double an order of magnitude).
It is at least an order of magnitude more lethal. I don’t know any other way of explaining this to you, you can’t compare under 40’s with Covid-19 against the “whole population” that gets Flu and say they’re comparable. They’re not.
It’s posts like yours that are so fucking frustrating because you don’t understand maths, epidemiology, fatality rates across demographics and, it seems, basic English comprehension.
Italy are not plunging themselves into a recession for something only as lethal as the fucking Flu.
Agree entirely!Can we now stop the thread being disrupted by arguments that should either not be on the board or personal arguments spilling over from other threads.
It’s not opinions you’re disagreeing on. It’s cold hard facts.We shall have to agree to dissagree on this. I am aware of the issues, and am concerned I just dont think we should be as alarmist as you are. I would ask you to calm down a bit theres no need to swear at me.
Flu is well-characterised. COVID19 is not. We don't know the infection rates therefore we don't know the fatality rates.
I'll be doing a PhD this year. I have one offer on the table with two interviews pending in Astrophysics and Bio-physics.Hmmm, listen to CDC and WHO or Marvin?
Toughie.
Good post, that. Not seen it in that much detail until now.No it doesn’t pal. Flu is 0.1% (across all of those that get it - including young and old, again with the oldest worst affected).
Covid-19 so far:
AGEDEATH RATE
*80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
at best it’s twice as deadly (if you’re under 40) against the average Flu fatality rate - which would of course be comparing apples with oranges as Flu’s 0.1% fatality rate includes all the age ranges as well.
To compare apples with apples then it’s 3.4% vs 0.1% so far.
Then there’s underlying health conditions which raise your chances as well (or lower them depending on your point of view):
PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONDEATH RATE*
Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
Diabetes 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
Hypertension 6.0%
Cancer 5.6%
Interesting one this because Germany has the fourth largest elderly population in the world at 21%. I was thinking that the problem in Italy was because of the 23% elderly population (#2 in the world).Germany 800 cases and 0 deaths so far.
Hopefully a sign that if you do the right things with patients they will survive.
I’m not doubting you after your weather prediction. #InMarvinWeTrustI'll be doing a PhD this year. I have one offer on the table with two interviews pending in Astrophysics and Bio-physics.