COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Good luck hope your clear, I had a test last Saturday got the results Sunday impressed with the turn round time, did the track and tracers get you or was it something you sorted yourself?
Something we sorted ourselves. Yeah she got tested Thursday and found out last night, so the turnaround is really good.

My original message missed out that my auntie was walking with a family member in the same household (I was tired this morning). So my contact has been indirect but it makes sense to know we're safe.

Test was very uncomfortable but the staff there were great.
 
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Unless it’s an antibody test I don’t see the point, you go down without symptoms and the test comes back negative in 3 days but in that time period you could get it! Or the test comes back positive and you should’ve been isolating in that time but haven’t so possibly passed it on!

Better to know if I've got it asymptomatically before potentially passing it on to colleagues and other people.

Meant to say in my original message that it was family member from my household that went walking with her (was knackered writing that this morning), so although the contact is indirect, the potential is still there.

Under normal rules (no symptoms) I wouldn't have to isolate but this way the people I come into contact with are safe.
 
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I think that there's a problem in how immunity has been discussed.

We are assuming that if you have beaten off nCov you have produced antibodies to it, but what if you had it asymptomatically, or had a mild version? Perhaps the body's innate non-specific system is strong enough in many cases to resist infection. If that is the cases then these measurements of antibodies are actually massively understating the infection rate and they understate the population immunity.

In the UK the maximum levels of antibody prevalence are in London but they are at 17% according to the serological surveys. That's a long way from herd immunity but what if many other Londoners beat it off and never produced antibodies in doing so?

If you look at some of the case studies of hot-spots e.g. Germany, they derive infection fatality rates of around 0.25% (Heinsberg study derived 0.37% but authors believe it's overstated) which means you can derive a prevalence of the illness from a country's excess mortality. If you do that, you get a massive mis-match between antibody measurements and cases which makes me think that innate immunity plays a big part.

Obviously there is more to it than just immunity. R0 is also impacted by lockdowns, and seasonality.

Take this as a football fans comments on immunology and Covid19, but everybody must have an opinion on this matter as it influences so much of our lives.
 
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Something we sorted ourselves. Yeah she got tested Thursday and found out last night, so the turnaround is really good.

My original message missed out that my auntie was walking with a family member in the same household (I was tired this morning). So my contact has been indirect but it makes sense to know we're safe.

Test was very uncomfortable but the staff there were great.
Centre I went too was one of the army pop up ones drive thru but test self administered
 
It's a start. I just realised I don't know the name of any of the people I speak to at the match every other week, lol!

Lol... very true.. and after 5 years sat in the same seat next to the same people.. I ain’t gonna ask “oh by the way what’s your name?”
 
I think that there's a problem in how immunity has been discussed.

We are assuming that if you have beaten off nCov you have produced antibodies to it, but what if you had it asymptomatically, or had a mild version? Perhaps the body's innate non-specific system is strong enough in many cases to resist infection. If that is the cases then these measurements of antibodies are actually massively understating the infection rate and they understate the population immunity.

In the UK the maximum levels of antibody prevalence are in London but they are at 17% according to the serological surveys. That's a long way from herd immunity but what if many other Londoners beat it off and never produced antibodies in doing so?

If you look at some of the case studies of hot-spots e.g. Germany, they derive infection fatality rates of around 0.25% (Heinsberg study derived 0.37% but authors believe it's overstated) which means you can derive a prevalence of the illness from a country's excess mortality. If you do that, you get a massive mis-match between antibody measurements and cases which makes me think that innate immunity plays a big part.

Obviously there is more to it than just immunity. R0 is also impacted by lockdowns, and seasonality.

Take this as a football fans comments on immunology and Covid19, but everybody must have an opinion on this matter as it influences so much of our lives.
Yes there is a huge mismatch between fatality rates and antibody results. Either the virus is magically selective in who it infects or there is a missing factor somewhere. I'm beginning to doubt the sensitivity of the tests.
 
Two interesting incidents in Germany:

1) After 7 days without any new positive tests in Leer (Lower Saxony, close to the Dutch border),
at least 7 new cases after a "meeting" (I guess a party) in a Restaurant INDOORS,
50 people in quarantine, lots of tracking work to do, more test results to come in.

2) On May 10 after service in a INDOORS Baptist church in Frankfurt several new cases,
that church have canceled services now.

EDIT: more than 40 have been infected (fuck, how many have been there??),
mostly mild cases, 1 in hospital.

Winter indoor time will be tricky. I have no reason to believe the pandemic has left the planet by then.
We have to practice essential social behaviour to perfection
if we want to avoid a more difficult situation.
 
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Yes there is a huge mismatch between fatality rates and antibody results. Either the virus is magically selective in who it infects or there is a missing factor somewhere. I'm beginning to doubt the sensitivity of the tests.
One explanation is that the virus is quite mild and is fought off by healthy young individuals using existing immunity, these individuals are the asymptomatic cases and can’t be detected by the antibody test because they don’t need to develop antibodies to fight the virus off. This is why it has killed the frail and elderly who have compromised immune systems and left the young and healthy largely unaffected.
 
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