I think that there's a problem in how immunity has been discussed.
We are assuming that if you have beaten off nCov you have produced antibodies to it, but what if you had it asymptomatically, or had a mild version? Perhaps the body's innate non-specific system is strong enough in many cases to resist infection. If that is the cases then these measurements of antibodies are actually massively understating the infection rate and they understate the population immunity.
In the UK the maximum levels of antibody prevalence are in London but they are at 17% according to the serological surveys. That's a long way from herd immunity but what if many other Londoners beat it off and never produced antibodies in doing so?
If you look at some of the case studies of hot-spots e.g. Germany, they derive infection fatality rates of around 0.25% (Heinsberg study derived 0.37% but authors believe it's overstated) which means you can derive a prevalence of the illness from a country's excess mortality. If you do that, you get a massive mis-match between antibody measurements and cases which makes me think that innate immunity plays a big part.
Obviously there is more to it than just immunity. R0 is also impacted by lockdowns, and seasonality.
Take this as a football fans comments on immunology and Covid19, but everybody must have an opinion on this matter as it influences so much of our lives.