COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[twosips]

Now you really are making stuff up. I was in the process of changing my last reply but I wished I had stuck with it. It’s not really all about you believe it or not. I can understand if people are nervous about seeing seeing groups at beaches or parks but there is also room for saying the situation (with regard to the virus)!has been been improving over recent weeks (although the overall impact of the virus has been devastating).

And plenty are! Who is denying its getting better? Who has said anything that implies they want to see a VE day spike? It was a weird statement totally unrelated to any posts in the thread currently. Just a dig at people, unwarranted. There was a current discussion about VE day with someone asking a sincere question out of curiosity, and they got sincere, informative answers back. Nothing to warrant a post saying people want a spike. Totally harsh and snidey.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

And plenty are! Who is denying its getting better? Who has said anything that implies they want to see a VE day spike? It was a weird statement totally unrelated to any posts in the thread currently. Just a dig at people, unwarranted. There was a current discussion about VE day with someone asking a sincere question out of curiosity, and they got sincere, informative answers back. Nothing to warrant a post saying people want a spike. Totally harsh and snidey.

You can carry on with your petty name calling. I wasn’t having a go at anyone singles post but there does seem to have unnatural focus on the VE 75 celebrations. As I said, I may have misread the situation in my initial post but you have carried on with a stream of insults that are a bit embarrassing tbf. Anyway I’m heading out to do shopping for people with mobility problems so it might be a while before I reply to your next insults. You could of course chose to relax for a bit and I know this is difficult times for a lot of people

 

[twosips]

You can carry on with your petty name calling. I wasn’t having a go at anyone singles post but there does seem to have unnatural focus on the VE 75 celebrations. As I said, I may have misread the situation in my initial post but you have carried on with a stream of insults that are a bit embarrassing tbf. Anyway I’m heading out to do shopping for people with mobility problems so it might be a while before I reply to your next insults. You could of course chose to relax for a bit and I know this is difficult times for a lot of people

I've not called you anything. I said the idea that people want a spike from VE day, and therefore people to die, to prove a point is mental. That's not a dig at you. It's not personal. It just is an insane suggestion. You seem a good person, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but I thought your post was distasteful and quite infuriating tbh. If you didn't mean it like that then I suggest rethinking the wording next time because any suggestion of wanting a spike increase is also a suggestion of wanting a death increase, and that's incredibly unfair. I've no intention of carrying this on further either, don't worry. Hope the shopping goes well. It's good of you.

 

[BlueAnorak]

morning, what is the received wisdom re lag of possible cases when comparing to events that happened in the uk? is it 3 weeks? 5 days?

e.g. VE day, bank holiday, protests etc.

New cases peak after 6 days (mean=5.1 days 95% of cases by 5.8 days), deaths 25 days.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Prof Emma Thomson says that although large events can cause "super-spreading" of a virus, the Nike conference in Edinburgh at the end of February was "very definitely not the whole story".

That outbreak resulted in 25 cases of coronavirus, including eight in Scotland.

She said that there were "at least 113 introductions" of Covid-19 into Scotland.

"I suspect many people came back, for example from holidays, skiing and things like that with the infection and that took hold in the community on many occasions," she told Radio Scotland.

Prof Thomson has been able to track changes in the virus's genetic code across different regions of Scotland.

She said this enabled scientists to determine which country the infection had come from.

We don't think it's that likely we would have been seeing this virus in Scotland in December. It's certainly possible that it might have been here earlier in February, and a lot less likely that it was here in January based on what we've seen, although we may not have been looking for it at that time.

Prof Emma ThomsonUniversity of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research

February half term holidays was the big one.
Skiers returning from the Italian and Austrian alps and folks returning from Spanish breaks.
Enforcing quarantine the week of half term would have delayed the epidemic by 2 or 3 weeks and would probably have resulted in an earlier look down seeing the numbers coming out if Italy and then Spain.

 

[grunge]

I am not only person to be concerned about how several posts refer to has the VE 75 day spike arrived yet or words to that affect. I was prepared to accept your first reply and I might have misread such posts but I called it the way I saw it.

its not people wanting to see a spike, its people expecting to see a spike and if there was one it's a good guage for length of time between an event and visual evidence in the stats.

Looking at the NHS england data ( including the 5 days of "subject to change" so ignore the drop at the end ) we see an increase in deaths at the end of May / start of June, Id say thats the "spike" for VE day, just over 3 weeks post event. but also worth noting, that is also the weekend the gov started to losen lockdown. so is it VE day or Lockdown losening?

 

[shemnel]

New cases peak after 5.8 days, deaths 25 days.

ok thanks, plus the ~7 day lag for the reported cases to back log properly i assume

 

[BlueAnorak]

ok thanks, plus the ~7 day lag for the reported cases to back log properly i assume

It kind of depends. People seem to be getting a test now within 2 days of catching it so 4-8 days in total from infection. At peak infection time it was when they were getting seriously ill which was a further 3-6 days (5-12 in total. There is no lag in deaths - you either die or dont a mean time of 25 days from infection (fortunately not many do in the great scheme of things).

 

[Rammy Blue]

I've not called you anything. I said the idea that people want a spike from VE day, and therefore people to die, to prove a point is mental. That's not a dig at you. It's not personal. It just is an insane suggestion. You seem a good person, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but I thought your post was distasteful and quite infuriating tbh. If you didn't mean it like that then I suggest rethinking the wording next time because any suggestion of wanting a spike increase is also a suggestion of wanting a death increase, and that's incredibly unfair. I've no intention of carrying this on further either, don't worry. Hope the shopping goes well. It's good of you.

You’ve said everything I would have said mate, the few posts where we mentioned it this morning couldn’t have been read any differently, they were as plain as could be. Weird posts from Tim and he should do better to just accept he posted a load of bollocks.

 

[cleavers]

February half term holidays was the big one.
Skiers returning from the Italian and Austrian alps and folks returning from Spanish breaks.
Enforcing quarantine the week of half term would have delayed the epidemic by 2 or 3 weeks and would probably have resulted in an earlier look down seeing the numbers coming out if Italy and then Spain.

Whilst I agree half term was when the damage was done, there is no way that quarantine could have been justified after half term (other than hindsight), unless everyone had just returned from China (and I think we had already asked people returning from there and a few other countries in that region to do so), it was just after that that it became obvious Northern Italy/Alps, and Spain to a lesser degree were hotspots for it's spreading, so it was already too late by the time we realised it had taken off here. The fact it took off in London was exasperated by public transport being rammed (as it always is), and for most people it was hardly a topic of conversation at all, though it rapidly became one, and the Cheltenham festival (10th March) was the first real major discussion of the situation amongst most people. I know on here it was being widely discussed before that (100+ pages in this thread by late Feb).