COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[True_Blue69]

It shouldn't be ,that would really be cooking the books

That's the model Scotland have been using since day 1. Must have seen all the praise Wee Jimmy has been getting and thought they wanted a piece of it!

 

[Healdplace]

Just one last post tonight on the regional situation in England hospitals re patient numbers and ICU/Ventilator

+/- refers to patients today v yesterday


East England - 3 patients Total 52 Was 64 a week ago

8 on ventilators. Same as last week.



London + 6 patients. Total 96. Was 96 a week ago.

17 on ventilators up 4. Was 11 a week ago.



MIdlands - 4 patients Total 132. Was 164 a week ago.

9 on vetliators was 13 a week ago.



South East - 9 patients. Total 46. Was 90 a week ago.

7 on ventilators was 9 a week ago,



South West- 4 patients. Total 15. Was 23 a week ago.

0 on ventilators (has been 0 for weeks).



And the North West - 7 patients. Total 141. Was 168 a week ago.

23 on ventilators, Was 13 a week ago.


That rise in ventilator patients in the NW is the biggest worry of all the data that otherwise shows falls in most places and falls in patient numbers almot across theboard.

I trust someone isinvestigating why the ventilator numbers are rising here and in what waythe NW outbrek is driving this.

Perhaps that comment in Preston from a local politician the other day aimed at the young ones catching this by going out each night and on the whole not getting very sick - Dont Kill Granny.

Because I suspect these are who are ending up on the ventilators put there by young relatives unthinking about the consequences of passing it on to family.

This is where we need a strong leader out there facing the cameras telling therse things straight to the people in the NW.

Look at these numbers. Guess who is on these ventilators and facing a horrible death? Guess why they are there? Because you went out and then met up with them to fulfill familyduties.

We dont have anyone I fear who would have the guts to do that But the truth needs to be gotten across. Or a manageable situation will turn into a sequence of deaths that will shut the country down again.

The nly way to stop that economic disaster isto make people see the consequences of their actions.

I hope it will happen. But not optomistic sadly.

Have a good evening.

 

[Len Rum]

They are standardising it to that I think but the primary reason is to stop any person who ever tested positive for Covid being linked as a Covid death even if they die 50 years from now after falling off a cliff. Seemingly that was not as absurd as it would appear to anyone with common sense. Though how often it happened is another matter.

England was out of step with the other home nations so it was easy to justify doing this.

But if someone died of covid more than 28 days after testing positive they would be excluded from the death figures.

 

[Cityfan]

That's the model Scotland have been using since day 1. Must have seen all the praise Wee Jimmy has been getting and thought they wanted a piece of it!

See my post above. Scotland also count deaths with covid on the death certificate but they are not part of the daily count but the weekly announced one.
Some patients with covid take quite a long time to die from it and would be missed by a 28 day cut off if you don't count the ones from death certificates later.
There is no perfect way of counting deaths from covid, all methods are likely to miss some and include some possible non covid causes.

 

[Shellac]

Heald Place if you have these stats then tell us the numbers that are contracting it while in hospital or in care homes.

 

[BlueAnorak]

But if someone died of covid more than 28 days after testing positive they would be excluded from the death figures.

Not if Covid is mentioned on the doctors death cert. The problem is people who were tested for Covid and then died of the underlying condition get added to the stats.
Most of these are from altzhemers/dementia - who have probably actually died from the stress of not hearing the soothing voices of their family. They may not know who you are but they like what you say. This is how my Care of the Elderly registrar daughter described it anyway.

 

[zerox]

the rise in incubaters could be instead of dying, they are surviving.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Interesting change in ICU stats from the start if the UK pandemic to now.

the rise in incubaters could be instead of dying, they are surviving.

It was a 12% chance of an admitted patient ending up in ICU back in April - It was 2% at the end if June and I believe its down to 1.5% now (though that is hearsay from my Reg daughter). Of those who go on Ventilators the chance of death was 50% back in April - it's now better but I can't find out from sources the exact amount.
The chances of leaving ICU alive have gone up from 52% to 80%

COVID-19: Declining Admissions to Intensive Care Units - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Daniel Howdon, Jason Oke, Carl Heneghan In a recent article, we observed an apparent fall in the in-hospital mortality rate

www.cebm.net

Basically we were rubbish but are now very good in the great scheme of things. Our death rate being far worse than the rest of Europe but now being as good as the best.
The problems and benefits of a centralised NHS in a nutshell. If the process isn't right the results are bad.

 

[fulabeer]

BBC just notes that the government have decided to bring the England death figures in line with other nations and not count as a Covid death one with no direct link to it.

It seems over 5000 cases will disappear off the current total of 46,706.

Something had to be done. I mentioned in a post earlier that a guy died from massive injuries in a bike accident. He had earlier tested positive for Covid, so went down as a Covid death.

A link to explain the new format.

Nearly one in 10 'virus deaths' was from other causes

Nearly 10 per cent of coronavirus deaths reported by Public Health England (PHE) were not related to Covid-19, a report shows. The Department of Health has been urgently reviewing the way in which it records deaths after Oxford University noticed in July that former coronavirus patients were...

uk.news.yahoo.com

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Remember in this GM scoreboad these are TWO DAY numbers if comparing with the past single day numbers for a town.

The number given in brackets is Monday's ONE DAY number)

Bolton 28 (was 8) - 283 past month. 79 past week. 36 past 3 days (was 29). Pop score 737

Bury 12 (was 3) - 141 past month. 46 past week. 15 past 3 days (was 13). Pop score 745

Manchester 77 (was 34) - 712 past month. 230 past week. 111 past 3 days (was 90). Pop score 656

Oldham 109 (was 30) - 635 past month. 260 past week (New record). 139 past 3 days (new record)(was 87) Pop score 1054 - huge rise in last two days and only just behind Blackburn at number 3 in the UK)

Rochdale 32 (was 17) - 417 past month. 97 past week (as you see one third of neighbour Oldham). 49 past 3 days (was 44). Pop score 908 - joined the 900 club as first one after Oldham to do so in GM.

Salford 36 (was 5) - 275 past month. 81 past week. 41 past 3 days (was 29). Pop score 616. Still top in GM but looking at risk of being caught over coming week or two.

Stockport 17 (was 5) - 235 past month. 78 past week. 22 past 3 days (was 38) Signs of imrovement. Pop score 637.

Tameside 23 (was 2) - 227 past month. 89 past week. 25 past 3 days (was 38) Pop score 771

Trafford 24 (was 7) - 158 past 2 weeks. 67 past week. 31 past 3 days (was 25) Pop score 644

Wigan 10 (was 3) - 103 past month. Last GM place to have a last month score of under 100 now gone too.
29 past week. 13 past 3 days (was 10). Still top in all but Pop score - which is 677.

As you see Oldham is now a national concerm not just a GM one.

Any ideas as to why there is such a sharp spike in Oldham? Is it down to a clothing factory or such like? Similar to Leicester?