COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[chesterbells]

You’re welcome.
For balance, the case against.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/23/challenge-trials-live-coronavirus-speedy-covid-19-vaccine/

Thanks. Just read that and I’m not convinced any of that changes my view in the sense most of that comes down to a view about the ethics of it, and if volunteers know there is a risk of a range of outcomes, including loss of live in an extreme minority of cases, and still willingly choose to sign up, I don’t think they should be stopped making a choice for the greater good, if they wish to.
It certainly would speed up the process, I don’t agree with the assertion it wouldn’t. The author is writing as someone steeped in the culture of the previous ways of carrying out such vaccine development, but I think this situation requires some thinking outside of that.
Useful to read that though, to have your views challenged and make you think your own views through.

 

[Healdplace]

Cheers for the update.

Btw, aren’t ventilator beds/use a bit of a flawed stat to use now? I know they were used a lot in the early days, but I thought as medics gave discovered more about the disease, they’ve realised they are of less use in treating it than was first thought. I could be wrong, but I’m sure I’d read that.

It is true that they learned not to put everyone on ventilators, yes. So numbers would have fallen for that reason alone anyway over time. But they are still necessary for some people with the severest Covid infections - especially those with other health problems - the majority now of those going into hospital,

The ones who are going to die in hospital are still more likely to be on a ventilator than not because this is primarily a respiratory infection and help breathing as a last resort may be required.

And the fall is still a measure of progress even though the 3300 such cases in April would likely in the current climate be maybe a quarter of that number. Regardless on 1 June, well after the over use of ventilators was realised, there were still 652 on them in the UK. And even on 1 July it was 259. And 1 Aug 91. So the continual fall of these to this day is a marker of the sickest patients and a pointer to likely imminent death rises if they start to escalate.back into three figures.

And that Northern Ireland has none. Scotland just 1. Wales a single figure number. And England falling into the 50s likely in the next week with single figures in most health areas already. That is all still things that help us chart what is happening with the development of the disease.

 

[BlueHammer85]

interestingly no major spike despite the outrage over packed parks, beaches, football fans celebrating and the protests/riots

 

[shemnel]

interestingly no major spike despite the outrage over packed parks, beaches, football fans celebrating and the protests/riots

i do think that this is an important thing to think on - why now? why the increase? just because society is slightly more like what it was pre-lockdown? or purely testing increases? i dont think it's the latter only.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

There has always been multiple strains with slight differences hasn't there? If that is the case then it's natural that the weaker strain becomes more common, as those that catch the one that makes you more ill are less likely to be able to spread it as they will be house bound at best.

But potentially irrelevant if it does not lead to resistance to the less weak strains.

 

[bluethrunthru]

another donor fleecing the tax payer - do these bastards ever face any sort of sanction?

 

[Healdplace]

Rather worrying Tuesday figures for England deaths. Big rise to 15 today. All bar one in the past six days. But 8 of them from the NW. Indeed 6 of the last 9 over the past three days were from the NW.

There is usually a catch up impact of weekend data on Tuesday but this is triple last Tuesday's number of 5 - 3 from the NW. So may just be a blip and things return to normal tomorrow. We will see.

 

[Healdplace]

So the data now reads:

24 Aug is 2 after one day.

23 Aug adds 4 and = 6 after two days (highest two day total in over a week and only been one higher in past 3 weeks).

22 Aug adds 3 and = 3 after three days.

21 Aug adds 2 and = 5 after four days,

20 Aug adds 1 and = 3 after five days.


1 was also added to 19 Aug which yesterday became th first five day total to be zero. So that is now at 1 after six days.

I was also added to 18 Aug to now stand at 7 after a week.

The other death (also from the NW) was on 23 July and takes that date to 15.

After all add ons that date has the most deaths attributed to it in the past five weeks. Only 3 others in those five weeks have totals higher than 9.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Rather worrying Tuesday figures for England deaths. Big rise to 15 today. All bar one in the past six days. But 8 of them from the NW. Indeed 6 of the last 9 over the past three days were from the NW.

There is usually a catch up impact of weekend data on Tuesday but this is triple last Tuesday's number of 5 - 3 from the NW. So may just be a blip and things return to normal tomorrow. We will see.

The North Weet figures are a bit worrying. I wonder if there has been under or late reporting of the amount of serious cases in the North West in the last week or two because some local ICUs seem to have been getting busier (anecdotally).

 

[Healdplace]

The North Weet figures are a bit worrying. I wonder if there has been under or late reporting of the amount of serious cases in the North West in the last week or two because some local ICUs seem to have been getting busier (anecdotally).

THere is always a bigger catch up on Tuesday in the North West as of all the regions they recordthe least (hardly any) deaths over the weekend. I have mentioned this on a few Tuesdays before. So lets see if it becomes a trend. Numbers were low over the weekend and spread out over 3 days it looks less conerning. So if it is just that lag its a rise but not a very serious one.

But I think the numbers are at a point where we need to pay attention and see which way they tip.