COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

As I have said to you before, I am a scientist, I am speaking to many other scientists, and that is our analysis of the current figures. My head is anywhere but the sand. I am reviewing figures every single day and there is no significant resurgence in the dead or seriously ill at this time. I hope it stays that way.

We established you are not a expert in infectious diseases did we not ? You take action once the R is over one ,in england it is 1.4, how long do you want to wait ? R2 ,3,4 ? The country is a tanker ,you can't wait and wait and turn it then

 

[True_Blue69]

Schools going back was not the key to this rise, nothing like it, it was far too quick as it started in ernest only 3 or 4 days after schools returned.

The CMO also said this morning that proven new cases in children were low, the majority of new cases between 20 and 40, but it was clearly rising in all ages, but least in the youngest and eldest.

I've said numerous times in the thread, the shitty bank holiday weather was a large chunk of the cause of this spike, because traditionally lots of families/friends get together over that weekend, and would be outside at pubs and bbq's if the weather was good, but this year most spent all weekend meeting indoors.

It's also a weekend where traditionally a lot of drinking goes on, because it's the end of summer, and back to work/school, ie mundane life is about to return ahead of a long winter (incidentally Scotland have an earlier return, not sure if they have a late holiday or not).

I'm hopeful that this is largely a post bank holiday spike and it levels off again.

Let's hope so mate, that's another reason to sit tight for a couple of weeks as if that does happen we know that the current restrictions are enough. For the time being anyway.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

This is an interesting article and may go some way to explaining the lack of a second surge so far in Sweden and the dramatic drop in cases and deaths in Manaus Brasil. Neither of which had a lockdown.

Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?

It seemed a truth universally acknowledged that the human population had no pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2, but is that actually the case? Peter Doshi explores the emerging research on immunological responses Even in local areas that have experienced some of the greatest rises in excess...

www.bmj.com

 

[levets]

My sister dealing (professionally) with a 2 yr old poorly with COVID-19 yesterday. Young people becoming as vulnerable now?

 

[kaz7]

you must have realised by now, if your opinion doesnt tally with Karens then it doesnt count at all. lol

Where did I say that ? Why should I take notice of someone not in the field of infectious diseases over medical officers with a lifetime in the field, I can't help sticking with the scientists here and in America rather than someone on a football forum ,some of you don't like being confronted with facts and my somewhat raw account of having it and the long term effects, not my problem if you don't want to know

 

[True_Blue69]

My sister dealing (professionally) with a 2 yr old poorly with COVID-19 yesterday. Young people becoming as vulnerable now?

No. They are not immune but are no more vulnerable now, just as older people with multiple health issues are no less vulnerable. Hope the little one is ok.

 

[cleavers]

Figures today 11 all settings deaths. But cases back up to second highest yet at 4368.

On a slightly positive note, there does seem to heve been something of a plateauing of cases over the last few days (since 16th) in and around the 4000 mark (give or take the daily ups and downs).

 

[Healdplace]

Regional scoreboard worst in the NW, of course.

London 282 - up a little from 241 but down on the two previous days.

Midlands 458 - exactly the same as yesterday oddly. Last 4 days have been 469, 442, 458, 458 despite national numbers up and down.

Yorks 492 - up from 445 but down on 3 of the previous 4 days.

But NW 1345 - nearly 300 up on yesterday and only 57 fewer than the record a few days ago.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

We established you are not a expert in infectious diseases did we not ? You take action once the R is over one ,in england it is 1.4, how long do you want to wait ? R2 ,3,4 ? The country is a tanker ,you can't wait and wait and turn it then

Out of interest Karen how do you explain the sudden drop in infections and deaths in Manaus Brasil with only 20% of the population having had the virus and no lockdown. Interested to know your opinion on this?

How an Amazonian city that shunned lockdown may have hit herd immunity

The authorities in Manaus made little attempt to halt spread of Covid-19 - yet the virus seems to have run out of steam there

www.google.com

 

[cleavers]

Let's hope so mate, that's another reason to sit tight for a couple of weeks as if that does happen we know that the current restrictions are enough.

That's where we disagree, I think we need to start reducing it now, not wait until it doubles again, it's too late then.