COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

As I have said to you before, I am a scientist, I am speaking to many other scientists, and that is our analysis of the current figures. My head is anywhere but the sand. I am reviewing figures every single day and there is no significant resurgence in the dead or seriously ill at this time. I hope it stays that way.

We established you are not a expert in infectious diseases did we not ? You take action once the R is over one ,in england it is 1.4, how long do you want to wait ? R2 ,3,4 ? The country is a tanker ,you can't wait and wait and turn it then

 

[True_Blue69]

Schools going back was not the key to this rise, nothing like it, it was far too quick as it started in ernest only 3 or 4 days after schools returned.

The CMO also said this morning that proven new cases in children were low, the majority of new cases between 20 and 40, but it was clearly rising in all ages, but least in the youngest and eldest.

I've said numerous times in the thread, the shitty bank holiday weather was a large chunk of the cause of this spike, because traditionally lots of families/friends get together over that weekend, and would be outside at pubs and bbq's if the weather was good, but this year most spent all weekend meeting indoors.

It's also a weekend where traditionally a lot of drinking goes on, because it's the end of summer, and back to work/school, ie mundane life is about to return ahead of a long winter (incidentally Scotland have an earlier return, not sure if they have a late holiday or not).

I'm hopeful that this is largely a post bank holiday spike and it levels off again.

Let's hope so mate, that's another reason to sit tight for a couple of weeks as if that does happen we know that the current restrictions are enough. For the time being anyway.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

This is an interesting article and may go some way to explaining the lack of a second surge so far in Sweden and the dramatic drop in cases and deaths in Manaus Brasil. Neither of which had a lockdown.

Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?

It seemed a truth universally acknowledged that the human population had no pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2, but is that actually the case? Peter Doshi explores the emerging research on immunological responses Even in local areas that have experienced some of the greatest rises in excess...

www.bmj.com

 

[levets]

My sister dealing (professionally) with a 2 yr old poorly with COVID-19 yesterday. Young people becoming as vulnerable now?

 

[kaz7]

you must have realised by now, if your opinion doesnt tally with Karens then it doesnt count at all. lol

Where did I say that ? Why should I take notice of someone not in the field of infectious diseases over medical officers with a lifetime in the field, I can't help sticking with the scientists here and in America rather than someone on a football forum ,some of you don't like being confronted with facts and my somewhat raw account of having it and the long term effects, not my problem if you don't want to know

 

[True_Blue69]

My sister dealing (professionally) with a 2 yr old poorly with COVID-19 yesterday. Young people becoming as vulnerable now?

No. They are not immune but are no more vulnerable now, just as older people with multiple health issues are no less vulnerable. Hope the little one is ok.

 

[cleavers]

Figures today 11 all settings deaths. But cases back up to second highest yet at 4368.

On a slightly positive note, there does seem to heve been something of a plateauing of cases over the last few days (since 16th) in and around the 4000 mark (give or take the daily ups and downs).

 

[Healdplace]

Regional scoreboard worst in the NW, of course.

London 282 - up a little from 241 but down on the two previous days.

Midlands 458 - exactly the same as yesterday oddly. Last 4 days have been 469, 442, 458, 458 despite national numbers up and down.

Yorks 492 - up from 445 but down on 3 of the previous 4 days.

But NW 1345 - nearly 300 up on yesterday and only 57 fewer than the record a few days ago.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

We established you are not a expert in infectious diseases did we not ? You take action once the R is over one ,in england it is 1.4, how long do you want to wait ? R2 ,3,4 ? The country is a tanker ,you can't wait and wait and turn it then

Out of interest Karen how do you explain the sudden drop in infections and deaths in Manaus Brasil with only 20% of the population having had the virus and no lockdown. Interested to know your opinion on this?

Redirect Notice

 

[cleavers]

Let's hope so mate, that's another reason to sit tight for a couple of weeks as if that does happen we know that the current restrictions are enough.

That's where we disagree, I think we need to start reducing it now, not wait until it doubles again, it's too late then.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

So, looking at what Whitty and Valence have presented I’m actually feeling a little bit sorry for the government. It was a terrible presentation that had a big IF but was presented as was inevitable.
I have gone back to the data and on July 4th the seven day rolling average was 583. The first doubling took 51 days (24/8), when we reached 1172. The second doubling to 2363, then took 9 days (02/09). The third doubling hasn’t happened yet 18 days later. It went up by 31% in 7 days (3084) and by 3% in the following 7 days (3183), which was 35% in 14 days.
Presenting the data in the way they did was poor and will allow the conspiracy theorists a field day.
They then compared us to France and Spain then made up an entirely new line on their graph that didn’t mean anything.
All that’s not to say they're wrong but they need to be better than that, surely?

 

[BlueAnorak]

I can only find those numbers going back to June. You are right that Spain was more (but not by loads), you are wrong about Italy and France, they were significantly less than ours. If you can find more recent figures that show a change in that fair enough.

Fewer care hones had cases:

England has lowest rate of COVID-19 care home deaths, European survey

England has reported the lowest rate of COVID-19 deaths per total fatalities in a study of European nations.

www.carehomeprofessional.com

But the bigger care home chains were crap. So in total death rate was second only to Spain.

Covid-19 death rate in UK care homes 13 TIMES higher than in Germany

Research by the London School of Economics found that 5.3 per cent of Britain's care home population has been killed by Covid-19 already, compared to 0.4 per cent in Germany.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The chains were shit and didn't spend any where nesr enough on infection control. But yeah let's blame the government for chain incompetence.

The NHS pandemic plan - in place for yonks is the reason why hospitals tried to clear wards to care homes. So whichever government was in power was going to have bad numbers.

Sadly it seems nothing has been learnt and the care hone case numbers are starting to go up.

 

[kaz7]

Out of interest Karen how do you explain the sudden drop in infections and deaths in Manaus Brasil with only 20% of the population having had the virus and no lockdown. Interested to know your opinion on this?

Redirect Notice

The last time I looked at Brazil they were spiralling and 800 odd dying a day ,i don't know what is happening now, I am not going to give that link my details to read it,do you have another one please

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The last time I looked at Brazil they were spiralling and 800 odd dying a day ,i don't know what is happening now, I am not going to give that link my details to read it,do you have another one please

Just type in Manaus Brasil Covid and you will see articles about it. By the way The Week magazine ia a very good read.

 

[Centurions]

The last time I looked at Brazil they were spiralling and 800 odd dying a day ,i don't know what is happening now, I am not going to give that link my details to read it,do you have another one please

Doesn't require details to read that Karen, at least not on desktop PC.

 

[bluejon]

We established you are not a expert in infectious diseases did we not ? You take action once the R is over one ,in england it is 1.4, how long do you want to wait ? R2 ,3,4 ? The country is a tanker ,you can't wait and wait and turn it then

Kaz, I'm a data scientist and you are discussing data. I'm not going to bother replying to you anymore as you are clearly always right.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Explain how population density has stopped a second surge but didnt stop the first one?

Enjoy that little conundrum!

20% of people in the 3 major population centres in Sweden have had the virus. So the virus won't spread so quickly - even though it is spreading.

 

[Centurions]

Out of interest Karen how do you explain the sudden drop in infections and deaths in Manaus Brasil with only 20% of the population having had the virus and no lockdown. Interested to know your opinion on this?

Redirect Notice

No idea myself why it seems to have more or less disappeared but their death rate in Manchester would have seen over double the number of deaths we've actually had (circa five and a half thousand).

 

[Blue Llama]

Bloody hell 40 new cases in Stockport in the last 24 hours.
If you are not arsed about keeping to Covid guidance here are a few reasons why you should especially if keeping us old gits alive doesn’t do it for you.

Another lock down extends the period where employers realise that they don’t need all the staff they had before Covid. And that’s assuming that your employer’s business survives.

Another lockdown puts more financial pressure on your favourite pub’s continuing existence

The government is already in debt to a level that will see us all paying more tax after covid. Don’t forget the Tories don’t have to be popular for another 4 years, its your pocket that will suffer.

Premier League football is not going to get back to normal and certainly not with fans inside stadiums until Covid cases are almost down to bugger all. And the longer the current situation prevails the more clubs will be charging for matches as they try to balance the books.

Even you young whipper snappers get ill with something from time to time, sometimes its serious – try getting a hospital bed and adequate medical care.

I am sure I could go on but life is too short especially with the increased level of numpties about.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Where did I say that ? Why should I take notice of someone not in the field of infectious diseases over medical officers with a lifetime in the field, I can't help sticking with the scientists here and in America rather than someone on a football forum ,some of you don't like being confronted with facts and my somewhat raw account of having it and the long term effects, not my problem if you don't want to know

Karen, sometimes you come across as quite dictorial on this forum. Its a forum to debate things not for people to just agree with you. An open mind is a good thing.