COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Marvin said:
The student numbers part-explain the surge in Manchester, Leeds etc and it's amongst a group who are less likely to spread it than others. Awkward if you're in the middle of it but one big cluster has less opportunity for general growth into the wider population than through lots of little clusters.

University cities in the US and other countries seem to have got through this so I expect we will too. if we didn't have testing, we'd probably not have been aware of this - is it a sign that we are beginning to get a handle on this?

The government is talking about mass testing and moving to point of care tests. I am sure a lot of people are working on it. I hope that just when this becomes a possibility a vaccine will start to be rolled out.


This is a bit speculative...there is more to immunity than antibodies. Many have an immune response to Sars-Cov-2 through past exposure to coronaviruses and this may part explain it's patchy geographical distribution. This implies it's not that clear cut i.e. 100 -8 %. There are memory B cells and T cell responses to infection, hence the decline in antibodies after infection is not necessarily a problem.

The only way out of this epidemic was through immunity but no one found a way of infecting the herd safely without the death of a lot of vulnerable people because the human population can not be completely isolated. It might have been possible if we could screen i.e. test people a lot more efficiently. Fortunately it looks like immunity will come from vaccines so the policy of herd immunity died when it became clear that vaccines were the way out.
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I posted a link a while back about the B/T cells memory and I do think this is missing (or has been neglected) from much of the reporting.
 
Turns out the SERCO Track and Trace app thats the game changer only allows you to enter the results of a test carried out by SERCO and its affiliates - so if you had a result, negative or positive, on a test done by an NHS or PHE lab of which tens of thousands are done every day it can't track nor trace you. Whats the fucking point eh?
 
bluethrunthru said:
Turns out the SERCO Track and Trace app thats the game changer only allows you to enter the results of a test carried out by SERCO and its affiliates - so if you had a result, negative or positive, on a test done by an NHS or PHE lab of which tens of thousands are done every day it can't track nor trace you. Whats the fucking point eh?
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They had one job...

I hope this gets patched ASAP otherwise they’ll risk losing the people who are on the fence about the app.
 
worsleyweb said:
Mate - just be careful this doesn’t consume you and impact your mental health. Appreciate the updates but you have a life to lead as well.
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I appreciate the concerns and I do understand this. So if I disappear for a few days it will be for that reason of taking a break.

But as one or two people here with whom I have had PM discussions may have guessed in real life I am not your typical Blue Moon poster.

Though I do see how this can be overwheming. I do have a life (I am on the phone or on line to my friends chatting about our lives for hours every day). And I have a day job that is really very different and would undoubtedly be nothing like you imagine.
 
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cleavers said:
Ventilator patients have doubled in a week, that's not a media headline, but it's a significant issue.
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I have been constantly emphasising for weeks now that the only stat that really matters are what happens to the ventilator numbers. 100 or 5000 in hospital is a problem but we have the mothballed hospitals to plan for that. THe deaths are driven by the numbers on these machines and as I have said many times in recent days IF they slow, then plateau then fall that is the point we can hope things are turning round.

As soon as they started to escalate it was clear deaths would follow as only very serious cases go on there because we learned early in the pandemic that we were over ventilating cases and thia was one of the first times the death numbers began to ease off when we curbed that. Boris woukd likely have died if the decision not to ventilate him went the other way as some wanted given how ill he was. He even thanked the doctor who chose not to do this.

I have noted a few times at my surprise the media have ignored this story. It IS the story - much more so than raw hospital numbers as most of those will be in and out over a few days.

The ones that drive any drastic actions being taken are those that become ill enough to need ventilation as a lot of them will translate into deaths.

Very surprised so few in the media seem to have been following this data. It is the key to when, how, how big and as and when any second wave rises, tails off and then subsides.

As all waves do, and this one will, and we will know how and when by watching this data.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
I hope what you say about student populations is right but students tend to be intertwined with local communities through part time jobs, living in shared accommodation etc (particularly in Leeds).
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Absolutely right. Which is why the "let it rip through the 18-30 year olds" idea, is a daft idea. It would inevitably lead to greatly increased infection rates in those with a much higher probability of serious illness or death.
 
Healdplace said:
I appreciate the concerns and I do understand this. So if I disappear for a few days it will be for that reason of taking a break.

But as one or two people here with whom I have had PM discussions may have guessed in real life I am not your typical Blue Moon poster.

Though I do see how this can be overwheming. I do have a life (I am on the phone or on line to my friends chatting about our lives for hours every day). And I have a day job that is really very different and would undoubtedly be nothing like you imagine.
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jigalo?
 
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