COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard:

Bolton 68 - big fall down from 93 to best number in 2 weeks. 1213 in month (record). 704 past week. 161 over 2 days (was 219). Pop score up 23 to 1589.

Bury 51 - up from 46. 980 in month (record). 408 past week (record). 97 over 2 days (was 125). Pop score up 26 to enter the 1300 club at 1314,

Manchester 182 - up from 177. 2623 in month (GM record). Manchester has now had more cases in the past month than Stockport has had in the entire pandemic. 1159 past week (record). 359 over 2 days (was 417). Pop score up 33 to 1249.

Oldham 64 - up from 58. 1172 in month. 427 past week. 122 over 2 days (was 148). Pop score 27 to crash into the 1700 club at 1720. One of three in the UK to go that far.

Rochdale 44 - down from 46. 964 in month (record). 411 past week (record). 9- over 2 days (was 138). Pop score up 20 to 1450.

Salford 62 - up from 43. 1105 in month (record). 424 past week (record). 105 over 2 days (was 133). Pop score up 24 to 1128.

Stockport 39 - down from 41, third straight fall but by small numbers each time. Smallest number in GM today though. 640 in month (record). 268 past week (record). 80 over 2 days (was 84). Pop score up by 13 to 892 - so 900 club looms tomorrow. But stretched lead as best in GM on this measure to 57 (largest gap in weeks) and may be the only GM borough in a three figure pop score within the next two or three days. Which was unimaginable 3 weeks ago.

Tameside 50 - up from 43. 976 in month (record). 355 past week (record). 93 over 2 days (was 108). Pop score up 22 to 1283.

Trafford 59 - shock rise from 37 to new record and not far behind Bolton. 584 in month (still top in GM but lost a chunk of their lead). 252 past week (record) (again still top in GM but gap with Stockport narrowed to just 16). Pop score up a record 25 to 949 and another 2 or 3 days of high numbers will take it into the 1000 club.

Wigan 109 - up from 68. Has to be the shock of the day - possibly the pandemic. Unimaginable number even given its big recent climbs. 1004 in month. (record). The first 3 days of that month just 4 weeks ago they had 7, 3 and 4 cases. And in the month before they had 128 in total - so easily the biggest escalation of any of the ten boroughs since August Bank Holiday. 486 past week (as you can see above this weekly total is almost 4 times their Jul/Aug MONTHLY total). 177 over 2 days (was 158). (record), Pop score up a staggering record 33 to smash into the 1000 club at 1012 - which a month ago looked literally impossible. 4 days in the 900s, 8 days in the 800s, 20 days in the 700s and nearly three months in the 600s.

 

[Mike N]

I'd imagine so. It applies to us all.

I wasn’t aware it was the law? No security guard is able to stop anyone leaving anywhere.

 

[Healdplace]

Hospital data news:

England patients 1721 - up 99. Highest since 7 Jul. Ventilators up 10 to 233. Hoghest since 30 Jun.

However, on the regional break down:

London added 25 patients to be at 213 and 10 ventilators to be 48.

Midlands added 21 patients to be at 348 and 5 ventilators to be 53

Yorkshire added 26 patients to be 408 and 5 ventilators to be 52

Whereas in a reversal of yesterday's trend the North West was rather better today:

Patients up just 2 to 544 and ventilator beds down 9 to 68.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

I wasn’t aware it was the law? No security guard is able to stop anyone leaving anywhere.

I'm guessing that these intelligent young people will comply, given the significance of the request.

 

[Healdplace]

UK patient numbers are now 2017. First time over 2000 in nearly 3 months.

Seven days ago it was 1331 - so a 686 rise in a week - about 52% increase.

UK Ventilators 269. Similarly far back to when this high.

Seven days ago it was 163 - so a 106 rise in a week - about 65% increase.

 

[kaz7]

Working age group?

Young people work , when i say young they are included not just students

 

[BigJoe#1]

17 all settings deaths. Last week it was 18. This is a nice surprise even though weekend data is low its the first week to week fall in a while.

And another fall in new cases too. 5693. That was 3899 last week.

Unfortunately they have not updated the testing numbers for the last two days of these falls of 1200 cases in 48 hours and the last one they did tell us (25 Sep) was a record high number of tests at just under a quarter of a million.

More likely it will be less than that as it often is over the weekend. But still this looks good news.

Great stats Healdplace, thanks for them.

Is it possible to get the number of new cases against the number of tests completed, to me it is this ratio that will give more "reliable" information.

Also, what is the view on the false positives? If the number of false positives is between say 0.8% and 1.5%, it is argued in many quarters that that is between 0.8 and 1,5 of the total tests that were completed. Ergo if 500,000 tests were completed we would expect to see between 4,000 and 7,500 false positive reported, which when related to the number of new cases reported is quite enlightening.

A common mistake is that the 0.8% - 1,5% is being applied to the false positive figure which is reported which in my mind is inaccurate.... is this thing really as bad as is being reported?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

UK patient numbers are now 2017. First time over 2000 in nearly 3 months.

Seven days ago it was 1331 - so a 686 rise in a week - about 52% increase.

UK Ventilators 269. Similarly far back to when this high.

Seven days ago it was 163 - so a 106 rise in a week - about 65% increase.

my mates a gp . Trafford he said hospitals in Manchester all have Covid patients now

I said oh right, all old people.

he said no , it’s obese people under 60. It’s a real danger.

 

[Keith Moncrieff]

I’m sure I just heard on the news that security guards are stopping MMU students leaving their halls of residence. I know the halls have been asked to isolate but I didn’t know they could not leave. As this is against the law, can anyone confirm this?

I'd imagine this is unlawful

 

[Healdplace]

Great stats Healdplace, thanks for them.

Is it possible to get the number of new cases against the number of tests completed, to me it is this ratio that will give more "reliable" information.

Also, what is the view on the false positives? If the number of false positives is between say 0.8% and 1.5%, it is argued in many quarters that that is between 0.8 and 1,5 of the total tests that were completed. Ergo if 500,000 tests were completed we would expect to see between 4,000 and 7,500 false positive reported, which when related to the number of new cases reported is quite enlightening.

A common mistake is that the 0.8% - 1,5% is being applied to the false positive figure which is reported which in my mind is inaccurate.... is this thing really as bad as is being reported?

I have spent weeks on here talking about the importance of the % totals from cases not just raw numbers and do quote them every day from the three nations that offer this data. If you look back on my posts you will see just how often I have referenced this and given that data. Must be dozens of such posts.

England don't announce it and don't even always post the number of tests done. There are no numbers today but they will likely put them out tomorrow. But you have to work out your own percentages

I gave data on this a couple of days ago lst time they published test numbers (Friday I think).

But there is certainly no break down of local tests conducted per borough that I am aware of. Though they must exist somewhere.

It takes hours every day collating the data I have been putting on here for months now. There are limits I am afraid to what I can put up here and stay sane and also have a day left to do other things.

I am sure 90% of those reading this thread skip my posts anyway. And I do not blame them at all. Not everyone wants to read the numbers or can follow them as they are rather overwhelming.

Abd I daresay everyone is depressed enough after today's match anyway.