COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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inchy14 said:
One where a few individuals have a lot to gain.
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Was laughing with the head teacher from my daughter's school about the daft plastic welders masks they're all having to wear, but it was pointed out that you know some contractor somewhere has made a fortune out of them. Having Deloites run some of the testing facilities was just taking the piss. They're constantly being done by HMRC for tax avoidance yet we give them contracts that should be going to the NHS?
 
ayrshire_blue said:
To clarify, are you suggesting a lot worse is yet to come?
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No. At this moment in time I'm of the opinion that the virus did the majority of the damage it's going to do in terms of shock to the system back in March-May and I (we, this isn't just me) believe much more of the population came into contact with it than is currently recognised. I don't think it's going to disappear either, this will be with us for years now, but at a low level akin to other similar flus etc (albeit a very nasty one) and there is also the issue of looking after those who've been hammered by the long term effects of it.
 
bluejon said:
No. At this moment in time I'm of the opinion that the virus did the majority of the damage it's going to do in terms of shock to the system back in March-May and I (we, this isn't just me) believe much more of the population came into contact with it than is currently recognised. I don't think it's going to disappear either, this will be with us for years now, but at a low level akin to other similar flus etc (albeit a very nasty one) and there is also the issue of looking after those who've been hammered by the long term effects of it.
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I think it was absolutely everywhere in March.
 
kaz7 said:
Covid has given me asthma that we are struggling to get under control , i am stuck with it , have to have a CT scan, i am beyond grateful that i didnt give it to you x
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Bloody bell - sorry to hear that. Who would have thought that day! Take care
 
Healdplace said:
bluejon I would appreciate your thoughts on New York. Up until a few weeks ago their outbreak mirrored the UK closely. And they have continued still like we were doing alongside of them up until very recently with deaths around 10 a day at most (usually less) and cases in the hundreds.

They have been able to avoid any hint of a second wave as we appeared to be up until late August.

What is the reason they are still keeping this suppressed as we were with them up to then but we now seem to have gone ahead of them? Though not by much given population level differences.

But the curves and patterns of their wave mirror ours very well until these past 4 weeks. I am baffled as to why they seem to have diverged. Is that an illusion? Or what did they do that we did not - or vice versa?
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I'd suggest 2 things, they don't have an August bank holiday weekend, and they didn't get really shitty weather driving all those bank holiday meetings into rammed pubs and restaurants that weekend. Instead they carried on largely meeting up outdoors in decent weather as we had here for much of the summer. Yes it rains in New York of course, but it's never 14 C and wind,y like it was in a good chunk of the UK over that weekend. People basically forced to meet up indoors, and the following weekend the numbers started to properly climb.

I've also no idea what NY has done about universities, but our idea of getting the students back so they can have the student "experience", whilst mostly still studying remotely, has to be a very stupid move, as 40 universities with cases now suggests.
 
bluejon said:
As Tim of the Oak posted on the previous page, it looks like the rate of infection was significantly higher in Feb/March than they realised at the time meaning the infection fatality rate is much lower than that. The current thinking (and thinking for a while) is that the virus blasted through much more of the population than was realised at the time.
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True_Blue69 said:

Estimating the infection fatality ratio in England | The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

www.cebm.net www.cebm.net

Nowhere near 1%

Will end up closer to 0.1% when all comes out in the wash.
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Read the article that you post properly, it is talking about what the current IFR may have fallen to. If you read it,it estimates that the IFR at the beginning of the period under estimation on the 23 June using their methodology was between 0.69% and 2.3% depending on whether you took ONS or MRC figures to estimate prevalence.
The MRC whose figures provide the lower estimate themselves reckoned as of August the IFR in the UK was 1.4%

Report on Nowcasting and Forecasting - 6th August 2020 - MRC Biostatistics Unit

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk

The figure of 1% that I gave was based on a paper using seroprevalence data that estimated the IFR as being between 0.9% and 1.5% for the outbreak up untill June depending on the figures used for estimating death.

No one is suggesting the figure is not lower now though how much is due to improved treatment and how much is due to the current outrbreak being more centered on the young is uncertain.
 
To many half measures now we have a choice either we hit this full on and go into lockdown and get the bloody thing under control , or just meander on and blame everyone else .
no half measures either economically or normality of of a certain age group . The government is shaking like a shiting Labrador .
sadly there will be casualties in this either economically or personal loss which I’ve had but this needs calling or else We face this for years
A bit like city we need a leader from the front and shake it by the bollox.
 
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