COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Interesting how the media is increasingly mentioning the knock-on economic effects both for China and the world. This episode could yet be a trigger for recession as companies around the world become unable to produce/sell. Pressure from within and outside for China to get its workforce back in harness, but can that really be achieved without jeopardizing even more people?

Sure it will be good for the biotech companies.

 

[aguero93:20]

People don’t get particularly bothered about normal flu but look at how many people die from it each year worldwide:

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Only kills poor people and old people though

 

[SebastianBlue]

People don’t get particularly bothered about normal flu but look at how many people die from it each year worldwide:

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Also people know that smoking causes lung cancer, eating a poor diet can cause depression and can also cause cancer, and leading a sedentary lifestyle can cause every single illness and ailment that you can think of... yet people still smoke, eat shit and don’t exercise

It’s a good point.

Here is a decent article comparing the seasonal flu with the novel coronavirus (based on what is currently known, of course).

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The seasonal flu should be taken seriously, but a novel virus outbreak is a different situation, especially one with very troubling epidemiological modelling based on current information (which is still fairly limited due to Chinese government control of info flow from the primary infection zone and purported index centroid).

It doesn’t have to be one or the other.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Only kills poor people and old people though

And a few other at-risk cohorts, for both viruses, which I am unfortunately among now.

There are few on here that have indicated they are.

 

[aguero93:20]

And a few other at-risk cohorts, for both viruses, which I am unfortunately among now.

There are few on here that have indicated they are.

Plenty of FOCs on here.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Plenty of FOCs on here.

Don’t I foc’ing know it.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

It’s a good point.

Here is a decent article comparing the seasonal flu with the novel coronavirus (based on what is currently known, of course).

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The seasonal flu should be taken seriously, but a novel virus outbreak is a different situation, especially one with very troubling epidemiological modelling based on current information (which is still fairly limited due to Chinese government control of info flow from the primary infection zone and purported index centroid).

It doesn’t have to be one or the other.

So the death rate is 40 times greater than flu and transmission is almost double per case. And that’s only based off dubious figures. The reality will be different, worse almost certainly.

 

[SebastianBlue]

So the death rate is 40 times greater than flu and transmission is almost double per case. And that’s only based off dubious figures. The reality will be different, worse almost certainly.

It could go either way.

Normally the initial mortality rate is higher than the actual rate, even before treatment regimes, vaccines, and antiviral medication are developed which obviously will further reduce the mortality rate. This is because in the beginning most confirmed cases will skew to severe (as obviously those with acute symptoms will be the first to seek out treatment). But over time more mild cases will be confirmed, increasing the total number of those infected, whilst generally maintaining the same actual number of people dying from the illness.

However, many experts are saying that it could be different with this novel coronavirus because complete information about the actual scale of the outbreak is not being provided. It’s normal not to have completely accurate counts initially but China is restricting epidiomelogical metrics so much that it is difficult even to create decent estimations. And a lot of what is leaking out of China is not good at all from a scale and severity assessment standpoint.

So ultimately the current mortality rate of ~2%, R0 of ~2-3, and 60-80% incapacitation rate (also pretty negatively impactful to a society/economy) could very well go up or down as time goes on.

Based on what we are now seeing on a few cruise ships which are themselves seeing mini novel coronavirus outbreaks (making them unfortunate scientific studies), it’s looking like the average R0 might actually be higher.

 

[TonyM]

If it's truw that very few young people are dieting that's great news.

 

[waspish]

Still within this country people seem oblivious to the reality of this virus. We’ll see in a few months how much of a joke it is. I don’t trust anything China say about it, it’s definitely miles worse than what they want people to know. I get not wanting to panic the entire planet, but it’s still odd how many people here think we’re fine and dandy just because we’re not third world. They worry more about the masked fucking singer. Says it all.

A vaccine is being tested now if it works or not we don’t know but Like I said on here last week they’ll be a Vaccine in 2 months for this.