COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Claytop]

That is definitely one of my concerns, as well. Especially as most behavioural science findings I have seen show that with each switch of the “on/off” toggle in similar situations, fewer people follow the guidance with less general adherence to the tenets of the guidance.

Which is why I assumed they (wrongly) thought/hoped that mitigation/herd immunity would work as trying to have self isolation/lockdowns on or off for the next 6,12 however months is not going to be pretty.

 

[Ohrodneyrodney]

It does seem that way. The NHS is cracking already and this is the calm before the storm. I get so stressed thinking about the next 2-3 weeks and beyond. And it’s maybe 18 months until we can make steps to restoring society.

Society isn't going away mate. There are and always will be people who put others needs before their own. In fact, thank God, there are loads of them.

 

[Claytop]

I just don't feel like I can trust their models either, and why would I want to after they fucked up so bad the first time round?

Tbf I don’t think any models are to be taken at 100% this is what’s going to happen. We have a better idea now due to data from China & Italy but this is still very new territory for a situation like this.

 

[domalino]

I just don't feel like I can trust their models either, and why would I want to after they fucked up so bad the first time round?

Well the models will only get more accurate because as we get more and more information and data, things will be refined. They had nothing to go on at first, and every week brings 1000's of new data points worldwide to feed into the models.

It's likely those graphs will get made to look better in a few weeks too - the red line for ICU beds can apparently be increased a fair bit with nationalising private hospitals and converting operating theatres which would have been used for elective/non urgent surgeries. Manufacturing of ventilators ramping up and constantly better knowledge as we treat people will make things better.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Well I'm up for the fight, come on guys. Keep going.

 

[Claytop]

I also note that the red line for capacity remains unchanged throughout the modelled time period. Given the "we will buy them all" response to how may respirators will you buy? I would hope the ICU capacity could be significantly increased.

Hope Matt Hancocks browsing history isn’t leaked, probably show him searching EBay & Amazon for them...

 

[SebastianBlue]

Just came across this great visual primer video on how general COVID-19 transmission works and how social distancing helps to slow that process in the context of “flattening the curve” — I think it may be useful to send this to people we know that may not fully “get” the importance of social distancing (when it comes up in conversation, of course).

I am a sucker for good data visualisation. :-)

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I just don't feel like I can trust their models either, and why would I want to after they fucked up so bad the first time round?

I’m starting to think that the Americans have it right.
Go out and buy a gun.
Go out in style.






Ok I’m over it now.
I’ll take Paddy’s Day off and work from home again starting Wednesday.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Society isn't going away mate. There are and always will be people who put others needs before their own. In fact, thank God, there are loads of them.

Of course. Maybe I just used the wrong word. I was getting at restoring normality, our ways of life. Which does appear to be in the region of 18 months away.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I also note that the red line for capacity remains unchanged throughout the modelled time period. Given the "we will buy them all" response to how may respirators will you buy? I would hope the ICU capacity could be significantly increased.

i know you’ve been defending the government, and I think it’s all too easy to criticise; they’ve got a ridiculously difficult job to do at the moment, but the ventilator situation is absolutely disgraceful.

 

[paulchapo]

Or, everyone works together to make sure that society doesn't break down, and most of us come out the other end better able to look after each other ?

That isn't going to happen. Look at the chaos in supermarkets after just a few days. You will need troops everywhere as looting will become rife when people's food runs out and stores don't get refilled. Anywhere rumoured to have food will be targeted, then it will be individual houses. Hey kids are stabbing people to death now for looking at them the wrong way, they will have no hesitation once they start going hungry. If it was one or two countries they would get aid but this is affecting every country so it will be everyone for themselves. People are panicking now after a week, imagine 18 months?

 

[kaz7]

Well the models will only get more accurate because as we get more and more information and data, things will be refined. They had nothing to go on at first, and every week brings 1000's of new data points worldwide to feed into the models.

It's likely those graphs will get made to look better in a few weeks too - the red line for ICU beds can apparently be increased a fair bit with nationalising private hospitals and converting operating theatres which would have been used for elective/non urgent surgeries. Manufacturing of ventilators ramping up and constantly better knowledge as we treat people will make things better.

You have to have specialised staff for that,the NHS is under staffed at the best of times,private hospitals rely on the nhs to bail them out when things go wrong,their staff can't just start looking after critical patients ,they also get ill like the rest of us,what is put in fancy graphs does not reflect the situation on the ground,the accounts you keep writing off

 

[Bellamy's Caddy]

Had a text earlier from my boss saying to work from home indefinitely. I feel depressed at the situation yet recognise I’m very lucky to be able to WFH. I feel for those that just don’t have that option. “Unprecedented times” just doesn’t even cover it.

When the government actively advises people to work from home where they can its baffling that some companies/bosses (like mine) with WFH capability are still insisting on staff being in the office. Its presenteeism, lack of trust and worse than that a complete lack of common sense and potentially dangerous given how lethal this thing can be.

I'm not thrilled at having to use public transport at the moment and rightly people are avoiding it if they can. I've never seen the tram so quiet on weekday rush hour as it was on my way home tonight.

This does feel like some kind of weird groundhog day scenario. One of my mates likened it to being out in your car when the traffic lights stop working and no one has a clue how to proceed... It shows you how fragile humanity actually is.

 

[Ohrodneyrodney]

It is the government's team of scientific advisors that have made me feel this way over the past couple of hours tbh mate.

Why ? It was obvious from the start of this outbreak that at least between 250,000 and 500,000 people would pass away from this irrespective of what the government did. If it ends up nearer to a million then they will have failed us miserably but Ive not seen anything over the last couple of hours that suggest that ?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

That isn't going to happen. Look at the chaos in supermarkets after just a few days. You will need troops everywhere as looting will become rife when people's food runs out and stores don't get refilled. Anywhere rumoured to have food will be targeted, then it will be individual houses. Hey kids are stabbing people to death now for looking at them the wrong way, they will have no hesitation once they start going hungry. If it was one or two countries they would get aid but this is affecting every country so it will be everyone for themselves. People are panicking now after a week, imagine 18 months?

We are so poorly equipped mentally to deal with this.

This is why Empires fall. We’ve become decadent and entitled.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Well the models will only get more accurate because as we get more and more information and data, things will be refined. They had nothing to go on at first, and every week brings 1000's of new data points worldwide to feed into the models.

It's likely those graphs will get made to look better in a few weeks too - the red line for ICU beds can apparently be increased a fair bit with nationalising private hospitals and converting operating theatres which would have been used for elective/non urgent surgeries. Manufacturing of ventilators ramping up and constantly better knowledge as we treat people will make things better.

Have any companies said it’s doable yet? Seems like there’s major hurdles to overcome with supply chains? I worry we won’t get an increase in the number of ventilators quickly enough.

 

[paulchapo]

This is pretty much my mental take on it too. Fucked.

They won't be able to stop millions running amok. How will thousands buy food with no money? Pay bills, rent? Prepare now I think.

 

[domalino]

You have to have specialised staff for that,the NHS is under staffed at the best of times,private hospitals rely on the nhs to bail them out when things go wrong,their staff can't just start looking after critical patients ,they also get ill like the rest of us,what is put in fancy graphs does not reflect the situation on the ground,the accounts you keep writing off

They've already said they have 20,000 3rd year undergraduate nurses (a few months away from graduating) who will be used to free up experienced nurses to go onto the new ICU wards.

Fortunately Karen, things like "who's going to staff the wards" is not a question anyone could forget when calculating how many extra ICU beds can be made.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I also note that the red line for capacity remains unchanged throughout the modelled time period. Given the "we will buy them all" response to how may respirators will you buy? I would hope the ICU capacity could be significantly increased.

Yes, but that is a fairly standard “base” assumption made in modelling for a few reasons (and is likely to be better than the variable constant set):

1) you usually control for factors outside of immediate purview of a prescriptive or predictive model

2) the more non-constant variables in a model usually the lower confidence of the prescription or prediction

3) law of diminishing returns plays a part in capacity assessment, especially one based on human interaction (i.e. we need more trained staff to allow for effective use of more ventilators, more ICU beds, and so on) so any contributing variable related to an identified finite set is usually set to constant for high confidence modelling

Chances are, as you say, we will increase capacity substantially as things progress which will mitigate some — but not all — of the strain on the health system associated with the higher case loads being predicted.

 

[Ohrodneyrodney]

i know you’ve been defending the government, and I think it’s all too easy to criticise; they’ve got a ridiculously difficult job to do at the moment, but the ventilator situation is absolutely disgraceful.

Yep, most of us predicted a global pandemic of a disease requiring more ventilators than have ever been needed before.