COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[ayrshire_blue]

Quick Google gave this for London, up to Oct 12th.
View attachment 3896
Very clearly not herd immunity. Looks like an exponential increase just a few weeks behind the North.

What you would expect is that the seroprevalence would reduce R proportionately. So if London would have an R of 1.5, but has 20% seroprevalence, then it's actual R would be 1.2 (20% lower). So you might expect London's rate of increase to be lower due to the bigger outbreak there earlier. All assuming that immunity is defined by serology and persists.

But all of this is overwhelmed by behaviour - the R for normal population is about 3.5.

Yep, all fair enough and can't argue with any of that. As I say, was thinking out loud rather than making any assumptions.

 

[Manc in London]

They may be, but they are going up, and my point was that that should be the trigger, not deaths, and it should have been everywhere. It seems the government only reacted when deaths started climbing, and they were telling everyone to get back to work when hospitalisations had begun to rise again.

.

They are not going up though. They went up and are now stable, whilst the figs compare favourably with other major regions.

Barnet (pop. 390k), where I live, is one of the areas where increase has been highest for a month (we have a uni with 20k students in the Borough). In the last week, positive cases have risen by 7! While have now died in four months.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Don't forget there was a massive IFR because nobody other than severely ill hospital patients were being tetsed in April, but a much reduced IFR because young people are testing positive is somehow skewed? Truth is, I suppose that we will never work out the real IFR mid infection and it will only be once we have measure all excess deaths that we will get a true idea of the lives lost through this pandemic.

You have your infection rates mixed up

IFR is (deaths/ infections), whether or not non- fatal infections were detected. It is *not* affected by testing, but is age dependent. You would not, as @Chippy_boy says, expect this to be significantly different in a given age range second time around.

CFR is (deaths/ positive tests), Case fatality rate. That does change according to testing as you describe.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Infections are coming down in Manchester, most areas of GM, flattening in Nottingham and slowing right down in Liverpool. Not only that, but the risk of death from this virus is massively smaller than it was in April and, breaking news, critical care beds are almost always full of old, co-morbid patients with respiratory infections, in October, November, December and January.

Finally, lets imagine we have a 'circuit breaker' for 2 weeks and infections significanly reduce in most areas. Do you keep your circuit breaker in for 3/4/5/6/7/8 weeks in the areas that don't reduce? When infections start to rise in December/January do you have another one? Even with a vaccine, this virus ain't going away anytime soon, so what next?

Why destroy the economies of the SW,S,SE and E when there is absolutely no need for it. No need whatsoever - till the application of Tier 1 restrictions is evaluated in 2 our 3 weeks there is no reason at all.

 

[True_Blue69]

People of Manchester are not following the rules at all
Until burnham has the balls to point this out all he is doing is posturing for political gain
We know the whole thing is a mess but if a load more deaths follow on our area I won’t be prepared to listen to him blame the Tory’s (standard fall back position)
As more regions move into tier 3 he will look like a dick
Hope he sees sense soon

Why is he? He has asked for evidence that what they are proposing is justified and he has not got it. His fall back is that if you cant prove why you are doing it and putting people into poverty, then pay them 80% of their salary. I think that's perfectly fair. The numbers in GM have dropped now the student surge has been put under control, there's no need to act hasty IMO and raise the level even further.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Scotland 2 wks ago v last week v this week

deaths 4 / 6 / 9

cases 775 / 1246 / 1196

% positive 12.6 / 16.2 / 16.9

Patients 275 / 397 / 629

Ventilators 19 / 33/ 58

In September, Scotland had 33 Covid deaths out of 4552 deaths. Meanwhile, that 4552 was an increase of 7% on their September 5 year average. So, they had 320 deaths more than usual in September and 10% were due to Covid. This data is why governments and scientists need to be a bit more balanced in their assesments of risk and it starts to shine a light on unintended consequences of focussing on a single aspect of public health.

 

[vincent]

Why is he? He has asked for evidence that what they are proposing is justified and he has not got it. His fall back is that if you cant prove why you are doing it and putting people into poverty, then pay them 80% of their salary. I think that's perfectly fair. The numbers in GM have dropped now the student surge has been put under control, there's no need to act hasty IMO and raise the level even further.

Out of interest are M’cr numbers similar to Merseyside and Lancashire?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Why destroy the economies of the SW,S,SE and E when there is absolutely no need for it. No need whatsoever - till the application of Tier 1 restrictions is evaluated in 2 our 3 weeks there is no reason at all.

I agree entirely, I am just unsure why Manchester seemingly is being forced into destroying theirs when all the measures indicate movements in the right direction.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

5 deaths (v 2 last week) (v 3 week before)

979 cases (v 766 last week) (v 412 week before).

10.1% positive (v 6.2% last week) (v 5.1% week before)

 

[Healdplace]

Out of interest are M’cr numbers similar to Merseyside and Lancashire?

See my posts here last night where you can look at all 10 GM boroughs and others from Merseyside and Lancashire.

But Merseyside IS higher than GM right now.

City to city Liverpool yesterday reported double the cases Manchester did.

And has been above Manchester for the past week at least.

Knowsley is also pretty much the most infected place in England right now in terms of per population.

But it is relative. GM is far above where it was when we started the restrictions. Though likely far more testing is a factor here. But Tier 2 has not done anything obvious to work. Tier 3 seems not significantly different to be sure it will have a dramatic impact either.