COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[ayrshire_blue]

Quick Google gave this for London, up to Oct 12th.
View attachment 3896
Very clearly not herd immunity. Looks like an exponential increase just a few weeks behind the North.

What you would expect is that the seroprevalence would reduce R proportionately. So if London would have an R of 1.5, but has 20% seroprevalence, then it's actual R would be 1.2 (20% lower). So you might expect London's rate of increase to be lower due to the bigger outbreak there earlier. All assuming that immunity is defined by serology and persists.

But all of this is overwhelmed by behaviour - the R for normal population is about 3.5.

Yep, all fair enough and can't argue with any of that. As I say, was thinking out loud rather than making any assumptions.

 

[Manc in London]

They may be, but they are going up, and my point was that that should be the trigger, not deaths, and it should have been everywhere. It seems the government only reacted when deaths started climbing, and they were telling everyone to get back to work when hospitalisations had begun to rise again.

.

They are not going up though. They went up and are now stable, whilst the figs compare favourably with other major regions.

Barnet (pop. 390k), where I live, is one of the areas where increase has been highest for a month (we have a uni with 20k students in the Borough). In the last week, positive cases have risen by 7! While have now died in four months.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Don't forget there was a massive IFR because nobody other than severely ill hospital patients were being tetsed in April, but a much reduced IFR because young people are testing positive is somehow skewed? Truth is, I suppose that we will never work out the real IFR mid infection and it will only be once we have measure all excess deaths that we will get a true idea of the lives lost through this pandemic.

You have your infection rates mixed up

IFR is (deaths/ infections), whether or not non- fatal infections were detected. It is *not* affected by testing, but is age dependent. You would not, as @Chippy_boy says, expect this to be significantly different in a given age range second time around.

CFR is (deaths/ positive tests), Case fatality rate. That does change according to testing as you describe.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Infections are coming down in Manchester, most areas of GM, flattening in Nottingham and slowing right down in Liverpool. Not only that, but the risk of death from this virus is massively smaller than it was in April and, breaking news, critical care beds are almost always full of old, co-morbid patients with respiratory infections, in October, November, December and January.

Finally, lets imagine we have a 'circuit breaker' for 2 weeks and infections significanly reduce in most areas. Do you keep your circuit breaker in for 3/4/5/6/7/8 weeks in the areas that don't reduce? When infections start to rise in December/January do you have another one? Even with a vaccine, this virus ain't going away anytime soon, so what next?

Why destroy the economies of the SW,S,SE and E when there is absolutely no need for it. No need whatsoever - till the application of Tier 1 restrictions is evaluated in 2 our 3 weeks there is no reason at all.

 

[True_Blue69]

People of Manchester are not following the rules at all
Until burnham has the balls to point this out all he is doing is posturing for political gain
We know the whole thing is a mess but if a load more deaths follow on our area I won’t be prepared to listen to him blame the Tory’s (standard fall back position)
As more regions move into tier 3 he will look like a dick
Hope he sees sense soon

Why is he? He has asked for evidence that what they are proposing is justified and he has not got it. His fall back is that if you cant prove why you are doing it and putting people into poverty, then pay them 80% of their salary. I think that's perfectly fair. The numbers in GM have dropped now the student surge has been put under control, there's no need to act hasty IMO and raise the level even further.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Scotland 2 wks ago v last week v this week

deaths 4 / 6 / 9

cases 775 / 1246 / 1196

% positive 12.6 / 16.2 / 16.9

Patients 275 / 397 / 629

Ventilators 19 / 33/ 58

In September, Scotland had 33 Covid deaths out of 4552 deaths. Meanwhile, that 4552 was an increase of 7% on their September 5 year average. So, they had 320 deaths more than usual in September and 10% were due to Covid. This data is why governments and scientists need to be a bit more balanced in their assesments of risk and it starts to shine a light on unintended consequences of focussing on a single aspect of public health.

 

[vincent]

Why is he? He has asked for evidence that what they are proposing is justified and he has not got it. His fall back is that if you cant prove why you are doing it and putting people into poverty, then pay them 80% of their salary. I think that's perfectly fair. The numbers in GM have dropped now the student surge has been put under control, there's no need to act hasty IMO and raise the level even further.

Out of interest are M’cr numbers similar to Merseyside and Lancashire?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Why destroy the economies of the SW,S,SE and E when there is absolutely no need for it. No need whatsoever - till the application of Tier 1 restrictions is evaluated in 2 our 3 weeks there is no reason at all.

I agree entirely, I am just unsure why Manchester seemingly is being forced into destroying theirs when all the measures indicate movements in the right direction.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

5 deaths (v 2 last week) (v 3 week before)

979 cases (v 766 last week) (v 412 week before).

10.1% positive (v 6.2% last week) (v 5.1% week before)

 

[Healdplace]

Out of interest are M’cr numbers similar to Merseyside and Lancashire?

See my posts here last night where you can look at all 10 GM boroughs and others from Merseyside and Lancashire.

But Merseyside IS higher than GM right now.

City to city Liverpool yesterday reported double the cases Manchester did.

And has been above Manchester for the past week at least.

Knowsley is also pretty much the most infected place in England right now in terms of per population.

But it is relative. GM is far above where it was when we started the restrictions. Though likely far more testing is a factor here. But Tier 2 has not done anything obvious to work. Tier 3 seems not significantly different to be sure it will have a dramatic impact either.

 

[kaz7]

We are going into winter , i would like a lockdown now to decrease the numbers and so we go into it at a lower base

Students should all be tested , send home the negative ones , those who can do remote learning that are negative , the rest can stay , that would really cut down the uni cesspits and give a more true view of which areas need lockdown

They need a woman in charge

 

[Del_Bosque]

where is the best place to get daily stats for Manchester?

 

[Chippy_boy]

We're not, per capita.

I agree with you that we've done a good job increasing test capacity from a poor start.

Hahahahhahaha.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Only if you seal them all off and let nobody from the outside come in - like Wales plan to do.

A pandemic in a small island will not obey boundaries if the people carrying it choose to find reasons to go elsewhere for the weekend.

Nicola Sturgeon has spent ages this morning still trying to stop people from Glasgow travelling to Carlisle and Blackpool to watch a football match and even has people telling her to cancel it because it is such a risk.

If we had simple rapid testing to control outside access you can run this via local lockdowns. We dont. And we saw how well it worked for Greater Manchester making Wigan immune from the restrictions beause its numbers were so low.

The result was turning Wigan into a basket case that nobody saw coming. But likely should have.

Superspreading events are responsible for 80% of new cases. Prof Van-Tam has stated that is what is driving the current escalation. It is the reason the pub curfew was brought in as people relax too much when they're hammered. For example, that twat who went on the pub crawl in Bolton created virtually all of the base cases that they started with.
For the life of me I don't understand why Covid-19 etiquette is not being followed everywhere indoors.
- 3 ondoor locations outside your home per day max that includes pubs and restaurants when you go out.
- no mask no entry.
- High temperature no entry.
- You can't stand or walk or go to the loo inside without wearing a mask.
Its not rocket science to reduce super spreading events.

 

[Tanzeylee]

The UK government has confirmed that Lancashire is to move into the top tier of restrictions from 00.01 on Saturday 17 October.

Pissed tonight and footy in the hotel room tomorrow with multiple beers

 

[Chippy_boy]

Half the daily deaths in April were Covid and daily excess deaths were huge, compared to less than 10% of daily deaths in October with excess deaths tracking 5% over or under throughout September and October. ICU mortality rates are falling month on month (so far, at least) and hospital treatments are much better.

Don't forget there was a massive IFR because nobody other than severely ill hospital patients were being tetsed in April, but a much reduced IFR because young people are testing positive is somehow skewed? Truth is, I suppose that we will never work out the real IFR mid infection and it will only be once we have measure all excess deaths that we will get a true idea of the lives lost through this pandemic. It was estimated at 3.2% in April and it is now thought to be below one, varying between 0.27 and 0.9 with age specific rates of

Fact is mate, if you are from a deprived area, are over 75 and have other issues, or over 85 with not many issues, if you get a respiratory infection in the winter, you are likely to be shuffling off this mortal coil, Coronavirus or no Coronavirus. The average age of death for this in the UK is 82.4 (84 for women and 81 for men), which is actually higher than the average age of all the other deaths.

Not sure what to glean from all of the above.

But I still maintain - unless you have any evidence to the contrary - that any individual's chances of dying of this (having caught it) and not materially different today than they were in March/April.

Your comment that you are massively less likely to die, is I believe simply wrong. Although of course if there is data to prove you're right, I will be delighted to accept it!

 

[Tim of the Oak]

My cousin’s daughter is studying at Liverpool University. She had to spend a couple of days in hospital with Covid but is now back at her digs.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths are another bad one.

82 with 39 of them from the NW.

Last week it was 47 with 23 from the NW.

 

[Healdplace]

where is the best place to get daily stats for Manchester?

They are posted by me every day around 5 pm.

Search back day by day to see how they have changed.

 

[kaz7]

England hospital deaths are another bad one.

82 with 39 of them from the NW.

Last week it was 47 with 23 from the NW.

The lockdown needs to happen