COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Phil1]

Thats the nicest you have ever been to me. Love you.

Some things are more important than politics. I disagree with you a lot but don’t want you ill or dead!

 

[Phil1]

I had a post deleted the other day so I'll ask in a different way. Are you saying that out of a population of 66m+ you are one of the 456 confirmed cases in the UK?

She is.

 

[BosnianBlue]

everything banned here, lol. even sports training for kids.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I honestly believe tens of thousands have it - if i have it (will know in 3 days apparently) and Kaz - how likely is it that of the 450 odd cases in the Uk - 2 of them post on here? Odds must be in the multi millions.

That more than the declared 456 are infected is not in doubt. But beyond that, it's very difficult to predict and would need data and statistical modelling tools beyond my capabilities. You can have a stab at it by looking at how "random" outbreaks are. If they are very evenly spread throughout the UK, then that implies widespread infection in large numbers. If it's more "patchy" then very likely the numbers are fewer. A bit like tossing a coin 10 times = you might get 8 heads and 2 tails. But toss it 1,000 times and there is no way you're getting 800 and 200. It will be more like 532 - 468. 100,000 times and maybe 50,320 vs 49,680. The more cases, the more predictable the outcome.

So my gut reaction is that we may have 2x, 3x, even 5x the number of cases, as yet untested. I hope so. But I doubt "tens of thousands".

 

[worsleyweb]

Some things are more important than politics. I disagree with you a lot but don’t want you ill or dead!

I am genuinely moved.

 

[kaz7]

Sorry, it wasn't a criticism in any way shape or form, just pointing out that large gatherings which can and in my opinion should be postponed, can pose major risk.

I know lovely,you are right,the way it is spreading is a concern and we should really be thinking ahead a few weeks and taking measures now,it must be a difficult decision to make,the wrong move could send the econemy into freefall

 

[worsleyweb]

That more than the declared 456 are infected is not in doubt. But beyond that, it's very difficult to predict and would need data and statistical modelling tools beyond my capabilities. You can have a stab at it by looking at how "random" outbreaks are. If they are very evenly spread throughout the UK, then that implies widespread infection in large numbers. If it's more "patchy" then very likely the numbers are fewer. A bit like tossing a coin 10 times = you might get 8 heads and 2 tails. But toss it 1,000 times and there is no way you're getting 800 and 200. It will be more like 532 - 468. 100,000 times and maybe 50,320 vs 49,680. The more cases, the more predictable the outcome.

So my gut reaction is that we may have 2x, 3x, even 5x the number of cases, as yet untested. I hope so. But I doubt "tens of thousands".

Maybe - but tonnes of people seem to be coughing ans struggling or under the weather at the moment.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I am convincing myself that this is actually the case.

As you say it would be great news. Despite that if in the coming few days they actually announced that they had pretty good estimates to say a couple of million have already got it people would absolutely brick it. Trying to explain why this would infact be good news would probably be a difficult and painful process due to the amount of thick twats roaming the streets.

And the forums ;-)

 

[dozzie26]

If you have been told to self isolate for two weeks then why aren’t you doing just that?

I've not been told to do that though. I posed the question to the GP, he said to me "if you feel you're fit for work, go back to work". For him to say that, he must have been pretty confident I don't have the coronavirus.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Maybe - but tonnes of people seem to be coughing ans struggling or under the weather at the moment.

True enough. I've had cold-like symptoms for a few days... which I presume is er, a cold.