COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Summerbuzz]

Well this has gone about as well as expected.

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard: (Fantasy Island edition)

Manchester 3174 - up from 256 (or whatever.....) Total cases 28, 550 . Weekly 5155. Pop score up 574 (new world record ha!) to gatecrash the 5000 club at 5164. Weekly Pop (these will be fun today!) up miles to 932. A rise of 529 in the day and by far the highest ever in the UK - if they even bother using these stupidly compromised numbers to claim that as true in their Red Watch List.

Salford 520 - up from 145. The other Uni city paying the price. Total cases 12, 258. Weekly 1649. Pop score up 201 to 4736. Weekly Pop up 158 to 637.

Tameside 177 - up from 89. Total cases 9491. Weekly 1022. Pop score up 78 to 4190. Weekly Pop up 30 to 451.

Oldham 124 - down from 173. Total cases 13, 295. Weekly 1426. Pop score up 52 to 5607. A little closer to Blackburn who are still the highest at 5800 but whose numbers fell today too. Weekly Pop down 18 to 601.

Wigan 90 - down from 171. Total cases 14, 780. Weekly 1500. Pop score up 24 to 4494. Weekly Pop down 17 to 453.

Rochdale 82 - down from 156. Total cases 11, 193. Weekly 1190. Pop score up 37 to join Oldham and Manchester as number three now in the 5000 club. Weekly Pop down 31 to 535.

Bolton 2 - down from 181. Just missed being the fourth negative number today. Pop score up (under) 1 to 4713. Weekly Pop down 55 to 415.

Bury MINUS 37 - down from 113. (These minus numbers occur as they have had more cases taken away from location of test or uni students as cases added on today....We should be back to 'normal' numbers tomorrow).
Total cases 8696. Weekly 836. Pop score DOWN 20 to 4553 (only way a Pop Score can go down is with minus numbers). Weekly Pop down 74 to 438.

Stockport MINUS 68 - down from 115. Total cases 9456. Weekly 841. Pop score down 23 to 3223. Weekly Pop down 60 to 287. Down to below 300 for first time since early October.

Trafford MINUS 206 - even the best Minus score record now for the best performing borough. Not seen anywhere losing more cases than here today. Total cases 8014. Weekly 568 - way ahead now of the other two boroughs sub 1000. Pop score down 87 to 3376 giving it a big boost in the race to catch Stockport for best Pop Score - gap now just 153 - lowest it has been in many weeks. Weekly Pop down by a giant 131 to 241 to give it a commanding lead as the best current weekly pop score in GM.

 

[squirtyflower]

I am happy to give the Government credit for doing what they have regarding the economy and the support they have given such as the furlough scheme, however I struggle giving any credit for them having the highest death rate in Europe especially given that we had the benefit of seeing what happened in Spain and Italy.

Never let the facts get in the way of a good rant.
Belgium and Spain both have higher death rates. However I’m not going to side with any government as they all seem to be as hapless as one another.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Could be something to do with this.

So basically the numbers overall are the same but students have been reassigned to where they are studying. Bad news for University towns not their home address.
I suspect that if they had done this earlier lockdown across the whole country may not have happened.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Newcastle seems to have taken biggest hit

I’m guessing this makes the trend of a ‘drop’ in cases in Manchester over the last few weeks even more pronounced than it already was. I think @Healdplace has already alluded as such?

 

[Healdplace]

Newcastle seems to have taken biggest hit

Thank you for posting these. The North East region more than doubling today from 1483 to 3365 suggested that Newcastle was badly impacted. So not surprised. But the scale on that graph shows numbers wise it will still be Manchester with the most added cases. Pop scores might be different. But they are below Manchester so probably not.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Not too sure that argument exists anymore as Spain and Italy also saw what happened in Spain and Italy, yet are still experiencing a bad 2nd wave. I don't think there was much the government could have done to stop it. The fact most people don't show any symptoms makes it all but impossible to control.

Which is why I am delighted with the Liverpool moonshot results for last week. They need to roll this out to other bad areas now! It really could be a game changer for the UK.
Localised test and trace rolling out this week too. I am hopeful that we may have finally got a grip.

 

[Healdplace]

I’m guessing this makes the trend of a ‘drop’ in cases in Manchester over the last few weeks even more pronounced than it already was. I think @Healdplace has already alluded as such?

If you look at the graphs you can see most of the add ons were several weeks ago and in recent days the impact was to REDUCE numbers slightly from the numbers they posted in places like Manchester.

So it does not look likely to significantly impact the trend we already had over recent days going forward. But any impact it does have will have been to under estimate falls, yes.

I assume too that the low cases number UK wide was unimpacted by this reallocation so was genuinely well down on that still very anomalous 33,000 we had a few days ago.

But I am a bit concerned at the huge roller coaster ups and downs of testing numbers and how that difference of 100,000 twice now in past weeks is potentially under reporting cases that are there.

But if it isn't then the signs are cases are still falling yes.

 

[Healdplace]

I guess the data tomorrow will be particularly interesting. As deaths will inevitably rise as they always do on Tuesdays and Wednesdays because of the weekend lag. And testing might also go back up from its very low level today. And the numbers should be 'normal' in other respects compared with today.

So we will see where we are more clearly.

 

[Blue and still suffering]

If you look at the graphs you can see most of the add ons were several weeks ago and in recent days the impact was to REDUCE numbers slightly from the numbers they posted in places like Manchester.

So it does not look likely to significantly impact the trend we already had over recent days going forward. But any impact it does have will have been to under estimate falls, yes.

I assume too that the low cases number UK wide was unimpacted by this reallocation so was genuinely well down on that still very anomalous 33,000 we had a few days ago.

But I am a bit concerned at the huge roller coaster ups and downs of testing numbers and how that difference of 100,000 twice now in past weeks is potentially under reporting cases that are there.

But if it isn't then the signs are cases are still falling yes.

Looks like the Government are working their way through the old adage "Lies, damned lies and statistics "